WSJ: Media Bears - Why 1/3 of Americans think we're in recession when the economy is booming.

Wall Street Journal ^ | August 19, 2005 | Editorial

[OESY]

The paradox of the year is why so many Americans tell pollsters they feel bad about an economy that's been so good, with solid job growth and corporate profits, rising wages and home prices, and a huge decline in the budget deficit. Perhaps one reason is because the media keep saying the economy stinks.

That's the conclusion of... the Media Research Center, which finds that so far this year 62% of the news stories on the Big Three TV networks have portrayed the U.S. economy in negative fashion. The "negative full length TV news stories on the economy outnumbered positive stories by an overwhelming ratio of 4 to 1," the MRC reports.

...[A] CBS Evening News story on July 22 said that the economy is "very tenuous. It could fall apart at any moment. One piece of bad news, one additional terrorist attack, one negative corporate earnings, and it goes right down again." Contrast that funeral dirge with what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that same day: "The outlook is one of sustained economic growth."...

Media coverage of President Bush's tax cuts has been particularly slanted. During the 2003 tax-cut debate, three of every four major TV network news stories were negative. The favorite criticisms were liberal echoes that it would bust the budget and favor the rich. Earlier this year, a news story on National Public Radio announced that "as everyone knows, the primary cause of the budget deficit was the Bush tax cuts." No word yet on whom NPR is crediting with this year's revenue surge of $262 billion. Robert Rubin?

Given all of this doom-and-gloom reporting, maybe the surprise is that Americans are nonetheless behaving with their typical optimism, buying goods and services, bidding up the stock market, and creating new businesses....

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

The stock market has not moved up that much.

You lack facts.

Here are some selected Morningstar Index returns for the last three years: NOTE: These are AVERAGED ANNUALIZED over the 3 year period, not simply the total return over three years (example--20% annualized is apprx a 60% return over three years)

Small Value Index + 22.01%

Small Cap Index + 21.18

Mid Value Index + 20.71%

Mid Growth Index + 18.92%

Large Value Index + 12.27%

Large Cap Index + 10.35%

S&P 500 Index + 11.48%

NASDAQ Index + 16.38%

Your opinion is an opinion, but the FACTS show that the broad market has had an OUTSTANDING return over the last three years.

If in doubt, choose FACTS over opinion. May I suggest to you that before you post, try doing some FACTUAL checking first. It makes your post so much more credit worthy to read.

SOURCE: http://screen.morningstar.com/index/indexReturns3YearDesc.html

[ex-Texan]

It depends on where you live. Our national economy is really made up of regional economies. California may be booming but the economy is lagging in Oregon and Washington. Unemployment has gone up .5 % in these two states since January, 2005.

The stock market is lagging because people are putting all their cash into real estate. That is fine if you can take $ 350,000 cash out of your 401(k) to pay for a home outright. Some people are paying cash for homes in other states to prepare for retirement. Great, if you can do it.

In the meantime, speculators are buying homes they will never live in with plans to flip them at huge profits. Beware of homes being flipped in your area. You might be caught with your pants down later. Read more about real estate bubble? 'Nuff said.

[skeeter]

Can anyone provide substantiation for the claim that wages are up?

[ex-snook]

"WSJ: Media Bears - Why 1/3 of Americans think we're in recession when the economy is booming. "

Let's guess. Maybe for 1/3 of Americans who don't read the WSJ it's not booming?

[skeeter]

Can anyone provide substantiation for the claim that wages are up?

Can anyone provide substantiation for the claim that wages - less dividends - are up?

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Though there is no doubt of MSM bias, anti-Republican reporting that excuse and "the critics in the general public are just plain too dumb to understand" as explanations for some of the public's perception are not enough.

And as usual on these threads the critics who say things could be better offer thoughtful and sourced opinions while those who take umbrage at any criticism on the jobs front offer thoughtless "clever" put downs.

What categories of jobs are being created according to BLS figures? Temporary agencies, food services and lodging, construction, government, health care. Yes, I know. Jobs is jobs.

What do labor studies by Northeastern University, Pew Hispanic Center, CIS say about those job categories? They say that recent immigrants are getting huge numbers (most?) of them (excluding government). I think that it is fair to say that these are the government-subsidized "cheap" labor folks which are highly prized by business.

Current recovery lags the classic recovery model in wage increases and jobs creation -- it's the impact of globalization and the economy is still adjusting. If that's Bush bashing then I am a Bush basher and proud of it.

Among good news indicators IMO is the higher-paying jobs available on dice.com. At the lowest point a couple of years ago the nationwide total was around 25,000 now it's getting close to 75,000. Yes, I know there are duplicate listings. I also know that during the dot con (yes, con) bubble it was close to 150,000.

Bottom line, it ain't the Great Depression and the general public ain't stupid.

[ex-snook]

"One other crucial difference is that the U.S. today is far less likely to engage in the stupid measures that FDR implemented in the 1930s to "fix" the Great Depression -- which ended up making the Depression far worse than it would have otherwise been."

You might consider that Bush has adopted the FDR receipe of priming the economy with deficit government dollars. FDR filled the job needs that private industry did not provide. FDR was doing OK until the Commies took him over.

Some history. "The Great Depression brought about severe economic hardships in America and around the world. People were opportunistic, wanting any type of advantage that could be given to them. One such group of people were the World War I veterans and their families; who wanted a bonus for their services in the Great War now, instead of in 1945. During this turbulent time, the United States government was very concerned with political uprisings that tried to overthrow the government. The government's great concern about riots and political uprisings during the Great Depression led to hasty actions to quell the Bonus March demonstrations, created animosity towards President Hoover, and eventually forced him out of office."

Actually it was a war that ended the Great Depression.

[ninenot]

And for good reason: PJB's utterances usually are dead-on prophesies.

But then--insight was never a feature of the GWB-bots.

[ninenot]

Yup.

Meanwhile, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P remain UNDER the levels of 5 years ago.

And the USD remains UNDER the levels of 3 years ago.

[mwl1]

I want someone with some degree of expertise on the subject to assess when nightly news for CBS, ABC, and NBC will essentially be out of business. 2008? 2009?

These ridiculous parent companies keep pouring more good money after bad in their news divisions, and their shareholders are tolerating this nonsense.

[ninenot]

Well-wages are up, but not keeping with inflation over the last 2 years (median, not average.)

"Income" includes rents, dividends, interest, and pensions. A far different story than 'wages.'

More significant, it was only last month that total US private employment got back to the numbers pre-2001; but factory employment has NEVER increased since 2001.

That's WTO/MFN China at work.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

My post factually showed the statement that the "market has not moved up much" runs against the facts.

The discussion had nothing to do with the five year history as you are implying, but I showed that members did not have his/her facts since the market has indeed moved up quite a bit over the last three years, regardless of its position versus historic highs.

[Willie Green]

You might consider that Bush has adopted the FDR receipe of priming the economy with deficit government dollars.

That's not entirely accurate.
Dubya's deficits more closely mirror LBJ's "Great Society".
He's spending money like a drunken sailor on BOTH "guns and butter".

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

The stock market is lagging because people are putting all their cash into real estate.

Read post #21.

[skeeter]

Well-wages are up, but not keeping with inflation over the last 2 years (median, not average.)

then I would say they're not up, but down.

I would be interested to see a graph of real wages over the past twenty years.

[tobyhill]

One word says it all,"oil". The economy is excellent but most people don't analyze the inside numbers but will analyze the gas prices on their way to work and associate the rise in price with a tax. Unfortunately the party in charge usually takes the brunt from the pocketbook voters.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

He's spending money like a drunken sailor on BOTH "guns and butter".

I agree that Bush is spending money like a drunken sailor (a drunken RAT sailor at that), but his "guns" spending throws off a false reading.

True, the Defense Dept has had a big increase, but much of this money is going toward payroll, logistics, replacement parts, administration, troop rotation, hazard pay, etc.

I submit that the spending on the military has gone down if we talk what the dollars are buying. The Ruskies and the Chicoms are spending their Defense dollars on late generation ICBMs, strategic ICBM carrying submarines and fifth generation fighters and other advanced hardware.

America is spending its Defense dollars on payroll and logistics, etc., while cutting back on hardware procurement, eliminating some advanced weapon platforms and eliminating many military bases.

America has gotten WEAKER militarily under Bush relative to Russia and China.

That is not much "guns" spending from a factual angle.

[Eagles Talon IV]

Decline in buying power? I could nor disagree more. I just bought furniture for my new home and paid a fraction for this furniture then I paid for similar stuff 8 years ago. Much of it made in China but as someone who has at least some knowledge of quality I feel I can say it is more then worth what I paid and probably would cost 2-3 times more if made here. I also was at a Staples store today and saw flt screen monitors, 17" for $279.00. Only 3 years ago they were selling for about $499. A 3.1 mega pixel digital camera I paid $265.00 for a year and a half ago can be replaced with a 5 mega pixel multi mode digital camera for the same price. The 3.1 mega pixel cameras are now selling for $149. A 32 inch TV that cost almost $900.00 in the early 1990's can be bought for a bit over $300.00 today. Cell phone, computers, printers, you name it all have come down in price markedly as have clothing. Gasoline has gone up as have heating costs and any fuel oil related products but they have been offset by declines in the areas I mentioned. Except for housing and health care, products and services that have increased in price have generally done so within the bounds of inflation.

[KC_Conspirator]

Perhaps one reason is because the media keep saying the economy stinks.

Bush has to sell the economy and its his fault for the negative perception. Its not fair, but those are the rules.

[OldFriend]

We are seeing the results of having the boomers teaching our kids....in high schools, universities. Boomers who were too busy 'protesting' to bother with their own education.

They've exchanged their mantra of not trusting anyone over thirty, to ignorance is bliss.