WSJ: Media Bears - Why 1/3 of Americans think we're in recession when the economy is booming.

Wall Street Journal ^ | August 19, 2005 | Editorial

[OESY]

The paradox of the year is why so many Americans tell pollsters they feel bad about an economy that's been so good, with solid job growth and corporate profits, rising wages and home prices, and a huge decline in the budget deficit. Perhaps one reason is because the media keep saying the economy stinks.

That's the conclusion of... the Media Research Center, which finds that so far this year 62% of the news stories on the Big Three TV networks have portrayed the U.S. economy in negative fashion. The "negative full length TV news stories on the economy outnumbered positive stories by an overwhelming ratio of 4 to 1," the MRC reports.

...[A] CBS Evening News story on July 22 said that the economy is "very tenuous. It could fall apart at any moment. One piece of bad news, one additional terrorist attack, one negative corporate earnings, and it goes right down again." Contrast that funeral dirge with what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that same day: "The outlook is one of sustained economic growth."...

Media coverage of President Bush's tax cuts has been particularly slanted. During the 2003 tax-cut debate, three of every four major TV network news stories were negative. The favorite criticisms were liberal echoes that it would bust the budget and favor the rich. Earlier this year, a news story on National Public Radio announced that "as everyone knows, the primary cause of the budget deficit was the Bush tax cuts." No word yet on whom NPR is crediting with this year's revenue surge of $262 billion. Robert Rubin?

Given all of this doom-and-gloom reporting, maybe the surprise is that Americans are nonetheless behaving with their typical optimism, buying goods and services, bidding up the stock market, and creating new businesses....

[AmericanVictory]

Over the decade of 1920s, about 1,200 mergers swalled up more than 6,000 previously independent companies; by 1929, only 200 corporations controled over half of all American industry.

The key is the constant wellspring of renewal of small companies starting up with better, displacing, technolology that moves aside the overly mature companies in which lobbying and political clout has replaced entrepreneurship. People should go back and read George Gilder's Wealth and Poverty the way Reagan did.

[Maigrey]

placemark

[ex-snook]

"A lot of people have listened to what he's said and disagreed with what he's said. A lot of people have read his opinions in their newspaper or magazine and disagreed with what he's written."

People interpret Buchanan based on their own prejudices. Using exact quotes and references from his ample article writings would be the best evidence of his socialism. What some call 'socialism' others call 'fascism' depending on their preferred smear term. So without quotes it borders on bullsh!t.

[Eagles Talon IV]

It's even worse then that. Two years ago while watching CSPAN (Washington Journal) a man called in to discuss the issue of whether the government should institute a proposed new social program to subsidize one thing or another for the poor. What he said has never left me and I have told the story often when making the point of how uninformed the majority of people really are. He said the following and this is an exact quote, I know because I immediately wrote it down, so amazed was I by what he said. He said:

"Before I answer the question, I would like to know if the government would fund this program with taxpayer money or it's own money"

Folks, it's true, if I'm lyin', I'm dyin'

[Eagles Talon IV]

The increased price of homes, first of all is regional and confined to the northeast, west coast and Fla. More Americans own homes today then at any time in history and the reason is simple, interest rates are at a historical low and when buying a house the monthly payment determines if it is plausible or not. In 1968 I bought my first house and the rate was 6%. Almost 40 years later the rate is actually lower. I believe if you use an inflation calculator you will find that wages have gone up since then by approx a factor of 8 and RE prices, excepting in the aforementioned areas of the country have increased somewhat less to about the same. Meanwhile many other things have dramatically declined in price, as I have mentioned. Gasoline, inflation adjusted from 1960 would sell at $1.96 ($2.40 in the area I used to live and where I pulled the original price for 1960 of .30 per gallon.) which is pretty close to where it is today with the exception of a few extreme places such as Cal, Boston, NYC and the usual places you would expect to be gouged.

[Age of Reason]

A. Pole,

I keep meaning to mention this to you:

The author of the new book, "The Long Emergency," believes that the shortage of worldwide oil, which is being accelerated by the industrializatino of the Third World, will put an end to globalism.

He believes that production and agriculture will return to being local, because fuel will soon become too expensive to schlep stuff across country, let alone around the world.

Listen here: http://www.wnyc.org/stream/ram.py?file=/lopate/lopate081705d.mp3

[Age of Reason]

Why 1/3 of Americans think we're in recession when the economy is booming.

Because uncertainty and insecurity is not prosperity.

Whose career will be outsourced next?

[GingisK]

Probably because 1/3 of Americans are actually economically literate.

This is a good reason. It could also be that 1/3 of Americans are now operating at a lower standard of living since they have had to trade thier technical job for something closer to the "bottom rung".

[taxed2death]

"America has more jobs today and a lower unemployment rate than it did pre-NAFTA."

The unemployment rate figures are tallied very differently now, as opposed to pre-NAFTA times. Remember, by GWB's decree, once you have used up your 26 week allotment of unemployment insurance, you're "persona-non-grata" and simply vanish off the rolls of unemployed persons.

"fuzzy math, at work"

[ninenot]

The issue was poorly framed in my post--apologies.

The issue should be: "what do we do with those individuals who are NOT capable of being an MD, a lawyer, an RN, (etc., etc.) but who are willing to do the hard and (sometimes) challenging work in a factory?"

Put them in some other country? Ignore them? Create Gummint jobs for them?

Most people who "work in a factory" actually learn a great deal about the production process--some begin in QC, others begin in maintenance, some start 'on the line.'

Over time, those with ambition and some talents progress within the factory environment--but the "training" they acquire in each position simply enhances their knowledge of the product(s) and the processes--making them more and more valuable to the employer.

In general terms, Wide's understanding of "factory work" is as myopic and stone-headed as Wide's understanding of the dictum that 'work is made for man, not man for work.'

And Raybbr: there is NO print operation in Ct. that compares with the print ops here in Wisconsin....

FFFFTTPPHHHHHHTTT!!!

[Doctor Stochastic]

Yep. Small or no raises. Layoffs. Rising gas and grocery prices. No interest income. Lots of people see much reduced buying power over the last decade or so.

[ninenot]

The increased price of homes, first of all is regional and confined to the northeast, west coast and Fla.

Two days ago the Milwaukee paper quoted Wisconsin officials as saying that the average price of a home in Wisconsin went up 10%+ in the last 12 months.

Your "statistics" are plain, flat, wrong.

[raybbr]

And Raybbr: there is NO print operation in Ct. that compares with the print ops here in Wisconsin....

LOL

Maybe. But at least our company isn't run by a nut-job (Larry Quadracci).

[ninenot]

National stats:

Unrelenting demand in most locales is pushing resale housing to new volume and price peaks, the trade group reports show. Second-quarter sales are up 4.6% nationally...vs. a year earlier, on prices that have climbed 13.6%.... (http://www.jsonline.com/homes/buy/aug05/348904.asp)

Locally, Milwaukee housing is up 9.6% last 12 months, Madison (WI) up over 13%, same period.

[ninenot]

NO FAIR!!!

Larry's not only nuts, he also has, ah, personal problems which have NOTHING to do with females...

And he's been tossed on his ear by the rest of the family.

OTOH, the Old Man's death is still a bit mysterious. Apparently having a $zillion or so in the bank left him vulnerable to taking a LOT of prescription drugs, although the collapse of the warehouse building (and the death/damages resulting) were what seemed to push him over the edge.

The old man's primary financing, by the way, came from Krueger (Krueger Litho), where he had worked for years.

[Eagles Talon IV]

Maybe not. The issue is whether or not here is a bubble. This suggests there is not and my claim that housing prices are appreciating much faster in the northeast, west and Fla are easily born out by home price sales. I bought a new town home outside Charlotte NC this year and it was only $6000 more then it was when I first looked at then 2.5 years ago.


http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm

[raybbr]

The old man's primary financing, by the way, came from Krueger (Krueger Litho), where he had worked for years.

Where do you work? I have been to Pewaukee, Lomira, Arandel Schmidt and Sussex.

[thackney]

Get your own information in more detail at:
Average hourly and weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers(1) on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail, US Department of Labor

[Eagles Talon IV]

Perhaps we have a misunderstanding here. When I began my original post to you with the statement "The increased price of homes is regional" I meant the increases that were causing the term "bubble" to be tossed around. Median increase seem to be about 12-17% with the higher median increases in the areas I mentioned and some truly outrageous increases in places like Boston, Cape Cod and the Suburbs of NYC as well as the west coast.

[Lazamataz]

The reason why 1/3 of the population thinks it is a recession is because of their decline in buying power. Mainly because they have not gotten the wage increase that others have

That's because that same 1/3 of the population really sucks on the job.