Iran sees oil prices at $70 per barrel

rediff.com ^ | August 03, 2005 | rediff.com

[humint]

Oil cartel OPEC's second largest producer, Iran on Wednesday said it expects crude oil prices to touch $70 a barrel by the end of 2005 due to demand-supply mismatch.

"Many experts expect oil prices to reach $70 per barrel at the end of this year. We think it may happen," Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Nejad Hosseinian said. He said oil prices were at an all time high as "demand is higher than supplies. (For producers to) increase supplies of crude will take time."India, which depends on imports for 73 per cent of its oil needs, is already facing a huge burden due to crude prices crossing $60 dollars a barrel. While import bill has shot up 40 per cent, the government has been forced to raise fuel prices twice in the last one year despite state-run firms absorbing almost Rs 18,000 crore (Rs 180 billion) of impact on petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene prices in 2004-05 and Rs 9,800 crore (Rs 98 billion) this fiscal.

"If demand rises more and there is no supply to cover it, prices will go up," Hosseinian said. He said experts have warned of crude prices further going up from current levels of $61 dollars a barrel as demand goes up with setting in of winter. "We think it may happen," he said when asked if Tehran shared the views of experts, who have predicted crude crossing $70 dollars a barrel by end of 2005.

[humint]

I would suggest we find a real benchmark in terms of Iran’s true intentions. Tehran is suggesting that they’re only interested in nuclear energy and not nuclear weapons while Iran is a major oil producer; close to 4 million barrels a day. If international sanctions and restrictions were lifted, they could play a much larger role than they currently do. Check out the graphic below, before the 1979 Revolution Iran was exporting nearly twice what it does today.

Amazingly Iran is still a major importer of gasoline which signals one thing and one thing alone: the Iranian economy as stated is not oriented in a way that could be considered in the interests of the Iranian people or the global economy and I do not think, for a number of reasons, that this is going to change. The true benchmark of Irans strategic intentions should be to answer the question, are they ramping up production of new petroleum refineries instead of looking for new sources of energy such as nuclear power? Completing the nuclear fuel cycle in Iran is an extremely inefficient way to get around a relatively simple problem. The fact is that they’re not producing more refineries; in fact they are marching headlong toward an internal nuclear fuel cycle which suggests to me that the end goal is not the betterment of the lower classes through a more stable energy environment throughout the country but rather, a nuclear program for offensive use.

[Doctor Stochastic]

That seems low. Demand is increasing; no new oil is being created.

[Bombardier]

Nuke 'em and take it. Watch the prices fall when OPEC realizes that it's being targeted for destruction in more ways than one.

[humint]

Global oil reserves have not dramatically changed over the last three years but oil prices have. Prices are more of a stability/production/refinery issue than the amount of oil under the sand in the ME. But I’m surprised you think that sounds low. Prices were around 26$/barrel for years and has just now hiked like crazy!

[SolidSupplySide]

Historically, a barrel of oil has cost 0.09 ounces of gold. At current gold prices, that means oil should cost around $40 barrel. Accordingly, I expect the price of oil to decline over the next few years. This will probably be helped by a major new oil find since explorers have an incentive (oil = 0.14 ounces of gold) that they haven't seen in 25 years, the last time there was a major find.

[G.Mason]

Running the risk of sounding flippant, I wonder if these same Iranians "see" the incoming holocaust that is in their future? And I'm not refering to the Eurowienies.

[humint]

From the EIA In June 2004, the Iranian News Agency reported that Iran had discovered two new natural gas fields in the Persian Gulf, one at Balal and the other beneath Lavan Island (with possible reserves of 7 Tcf).

Iran has huge natural gas reserves that it could use to run power plants. Can you think of any reason why they would want to waste their money on nuclear energy? The Russians have told them flat out that their business model is bogus if the plants they are building there are for energy production alone.

[RexBeach]

I'd like to see Iran OVER a barrel.

[humint]

"Running the risk of sounding flippant, I wonder if these same Iranians "see" the incoming holocaust that is in their future? And I'm not referring to the Eurowienies."

Judging by their behavior, the Iranian government is doing everything in their power to instigate a war with the free world. I sincerely hope history doesn't categorize what the west must do to facilitate real change in Iran as a holocaust. But that's ultimately up to the ayatollahs to decide. No matter how hard they try to discard their destiny into the fires of war, it is still in their hands at this point.

[50sDad]

Excellent. We should begin drilling ANWR and off California tomorrow, since the USSC "eminent domain" ruling proves we can seize land for the public good. After that, we temporarily defund NASA, public television, and the National Endowment for the Arts, and put the money into a Manhattan Project-style push for fusion power. Once we have that, we publish the secret on the Net so everyone can do it, and then, the Moose-limb maniacs are sitting on a worthless pile of oily sand. Once science makes the oil irrelevant, we can let them go back to killing each other, and nuke them if they touch us or Israel. Who's with me?

[humint]

"Excellent. We should begin drilling ANWR..."

Now that's a plan!

[glorgau]

Also, Iran is probably doing it's best to constrain supply from Iraq by sending people and money over the very porous border to blow up pipelines and other oil producing facilities. In a strictly robber baron capitalist sense, it makes perfect sense for them do so.

[humint]

"Iran is probably... ...blow up pipelines and other oil producing facilities"

Iraq Loses $1 Billion In Oil Revenue From Sabotage, Jun 21, 2004, 12:01, Tehran - P.I.N. - R.Imani azad - 2004/06/21 10:55

Baghdad - Iraq, the Middle East's fifth-largest oil producer last month, has lost around $1 billion in oil income during the last year as a result of sabotage to its oil infrastructure. The country's Prime Minister said Iraq relies on oil for almost all its export revenue, which it uses to fund government salaries and reconstruction. Since resuming exports in June last year following March's U.S.- invasion, Iraq has collected almost $10.8 billion in oil revenue in its Development Fund of Iraq, set up to channel revenue from various sources.

© Copyright IranNewsWatch.com

[verity]

$71 is the trigger point for weapons release. ;-)

[humint]

"I'd like to see Iran OVER a barrel."

Iran is stareing down a barrel! Click image to see video...

[RexBeach]

Good piece! Thanks!

[humint]

"$71 is the trigger point"

It's getting close... Who’s got their finger on the shiny red button? Get ready!

[Finalapproach29er]

George W. Carter.

Sending our VP with condolences from America to our "friends".


I'm getting tired of this.

[toddlintown]

And I see a smoldering hole where Tehran used to be.

[quark]

I see Iran as a glass parking lot.