Ohio Special Election Open Thread (Final results Schmidt: 52%; Hackett: 48% Demos lose again)

[watsonfellow]

Has anyone seen any polls?

[Cato Uticensis]

"My spreadsheet projection:

55788.01 Schmidt
53678.59 Hackett "


How did Hackett come so close? I was thinking during the day, when Limbaugh played his (Hackett's) ad, where he doesn't mention he is a Democrat, just that he is a Marine major. I was thinking that many people would assume that he was the Republican and vote for him. Do you think that happened?

[Dan from Michigan]

Michigan elections are usually close statewide. Anything over 5% is a landslide here.

does the GOP have any good shots for 2006 in MI?

If Candace Miller runs for governor, bye bye Granholm. She even won Wayne County in her last run for secretary of state. She's from Macomb County as well, which is key. Keith Butler may surprise people for the senate seat. Debbie Stabenow is a weak incumbent and beatable with the right candidate. Butler may be it.

aslo can you tell me what has shifted from GOP to DEM in MI since 1988 when GHW Bush won there

Michigan's independent voters vote on economy first. The economy was decent in 88 here. Dukakis also had his tank incident here, and the Reagan Democrats backed GHWB based on their love for Reagan. In 1990, the economy stunk and Dem Jim Blanchard got the heave ho in a major upset loss to some unknown guy named John Engler. In 92, Bush's tax increase and gun ban, as well as a weak economy cost him a landslide loss - 7%(with Perot). In 94, Engler got his economic reform package in and the economy was making a comeback. Landslide win by over 20% in a bigtime GOP year. In 96, Clinton won by 10% here in a big year for the dems. In 98, Geoff Fieger's bigotry was a disaster. In 2000, Gore won on the economy and a great GOTV effort. In 02, Granholm won in a squeaker(economy). In 04, Kerry won by even more of a squeaker(economy).

[Coop]

Sorry I'm kind of upset.

Upset. Delusional. Same difference.

[Torie]

Granted the turnout was low, and the GOP took this one for granted until the tracking polls came in a few days ago, and they panicked, and did a money dump, but Hackett sliced into the GOP base like a sharp knife into butter. The swing was particularly ugly outside the Cincinnati metro area. There it was a total disaster. Those folks like war veterans who are unhappy wiht the Bush act regarding it, is my assumption. It was an emotional thing. There, at least a third of the Bush vote exited.

The Dems have every right to crow about this one. This CD is one of the most reliably GOP in the nation, particularly since it takes in rich GOP Cincinatti suburbs, and hyper GOP exurbs (who tend not to swing much), along with rural GOP counties, and marginal to mildly Dem Scioto and Pike counties. But the counties outside the metro area count for only about 20-25% of the district I would guess.

[Dane]

I can name a candidate who lost a house seat, became a governor, and then became president . . . his initials are GWB . . .

He had to wait 16 years between his House loss and his Gov. win though.

[TheBigB]

I can name a candidate who lost a house seat, became a governor, and then became president

I can, too.

Bill Clinton.

[A CA Guy]

I think that tells you this was an extremely high Democrat crowd and that the Republicans who did vote were too stupid to realize all that is property taxes on their homes.

[atlanta67]

"'Bush should have never won.""


Bush should have won 55-56%

FAIR model had Bush at 57% for 2004.

Kerry was worse than Dukakis

[RobFromGa]

that worries me

Everything appears to worry you. Maybe you aren't cut out for watching elections.

[staytrue]

Michigan has lost jobs big time due to GM and Ford.

The voters are blaming republicans.

[canadiancapitalist]

CNN "reporter" breathlessly reporting that Hackett has opened a narrow lead - wishful thinking

[IMRight]

Although Lincoln spent several years in the Illinois legislature, it appears that he only ran once for national office before running for President.

In 1858 he lost a race for the Senate.

Oh goodness no... he lost other races before that. :-) He was unable to even win the party nomination for the congressional seat he eventually held. It's often said that he "lost" a re-election bid, but he didn't actually run. But that Senate race was what gave us the "Lincoln Douglas debates"

[LucyJo]

Hope the elephant has his eyes peeled for Donkey shenanigans.

[kesg]

Yeah. And in the 2006 election, Schmidt will win re-election with 60%+ of the vote. Watch and see.

[Hattie]

NY: Schumer/Hitlery- a motormouthed camera hound and a cross between Eva Peron, Imelda Marcos, and Elena Ceaucescu.

LOL And also Lady MacBeth.

[Coop]

terriroty.

Uh, that's Swahili for "territory." :-)

[TNCMAXQ]

Didnt Bill Clinton run for the US House and lose the first time too?

In recent years though I think Maria Cantwell is one of the few, if not the only, incumbent US House members to lose her seat and then get elected to the Senate later. Most others who tried have failed, like Dick Swett of NH and Gary Franks from CT.

[Torie]

Do you think that happened?

No. Don't assume voters are dumb asses. They liked the guy, liked a guy who fought in Iraq but was unhappy with Bush's conduct of the war, and wanted to send a message.

[theophilusscribe]

I like mine better. :o)

[PhiKapMom]

Ohio Freepers need to check to see if the Ohio RATs are broke. Here in OK and in FL, the RATs spent money in 2004 they didn't have. In OK they are in the hole by over 1/2 million and owe everyone including IRS and Social Security -- same with Florida.

Everyone needs to check the coffers of their State Party RATs. RNC is way ahead of the Dems as well while Dean is promising to bail out the State Parties.