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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: Willie Green
It would be a bit of a drive, someday you'll out to the beach, on the way back you can swing by for a beer. Here is a link to the bar web site, which BTW include an FR like forum. Web server is at my house so it goes up and down from time to time.
521 posted on 07/15/2005 12:16:52 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: All

I don't recall who was asking about Larry Cosgrove, but he just posted some brief thoughts.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=41289&view=findpost&p=475745


522 posted on 07/15/2005 12:19:24 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: rwfromkansas

Emily seems kindof irradic in her path, one moment she going nw, the next west or wnw. Must be a lot of stuff going on where she is at. Just about every model I ran today, hat her hitting N. Mexico or S.Texas. So I think it is a prteety good bet she is not going to hit N.Mexico or S. Texas. LOL.


523 posted on 07/15/2005 12:21:07 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: All; jpsb

Hurricanes always wobble along, it's usually not wise to focuse on movement over a few hours.

She is not really very far south of guidance at this point.


524 posted on 07/15/2005 12:22:18 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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Comment #525 Removed by Moderator

To: Dog Gone

Oops, that was supposed to be a private reply.


526 posted on 07/15/2005 12:23:47 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

Ave A.


527 posted on 07/15/2005 12:25:07 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: nwctwx

Thanks...he's really not saying much...wonder if he's goin' forecast Emily???


528 posted on 07/15/2005 12:25:43 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: jpsb

Cripes, you're right on the water!


529 posted on 07/15/2005 12:29:07 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: shield

He put out his first forecast on Dennis about 4 days before it made landfall, so I would expect the same with this storm if it appears to be a U.S. threat come that time.


530 posted on 07/15/2005 12:30:54 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Dog Gone

And I drink good beer too.

531 posted on 07/15/2005 12:33:32 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb
Cool! I gotcha bookmarked!
"Open mic" Wednesday sounds interesting....
I haven't done any karoeke since I lived in Michigan...
I just hope your regular customers don't judge newbies too harshly. LOL!
532 posted on 07/15/2005 12:36:53 PM PDT by Willie Green (Some people march to a different drummer - and some people polka)
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To: Willie Green

We have the worst karaoka in three counties, but every one has fun. It's tuesday though, I'll go change the web site. I am very bad about that.


533 posted on 07/15/2005 12:38:27 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb

Nice view!


534 posted on 07/15/2005 12:40:57 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Willie Green

FYI, the reporter is a great place to archive articles for future use. I integrated a full text search engine into the forum (lucene) and I am under the radar screen, if you know what I mean.


535 posted on 07/15/2005 12:42:32 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: NautiNurse

thanks, great beer too, now you now why I have such interest in hurricanes, particularly Texas hurricanes.


536 posted on 07/15/2005 12:44:21 PM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb
We have the worst karaoka in three counties, but every one has fun. It's tuesday though, I'll go change the web site. I am very bad about that.

No problem... Tuesday... Wednesday... it really doesn't make a difference,
when I have a few beers, I just start singing anyway,
doesn't matter whether it's karoake night or not...
just warn your regulars that, if I show up, they risk being the worst in FIVE counties! LOL!

537 posted on 07/15/2005 12:51:40 PM PDT by Willie Green (Some people march to a different drummer - and some people polka)
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To: jpsb
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 20

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on July 15, 2005

 
...Emily weakens but expected to regain strength as it moves toward
the western Caribbean Sea...

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Warning for all of the Cayman Islands. 

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of Jamaica.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was estimated
near latitude 14.7 north...longitude  72.8 west or about  350
miles...565 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

 
Emily has been  moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and
this motion is expected tonight with a gradual turn to the
west-northwest on Saturday. On this track...the center of Emily will
pass not far to the south of Jamaica within the next 24 hours. 

 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph...165
km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb...28.61 inches.

 
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over
Jamaica...with maximum accumulations of 15 to 20 inches over
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 12 inches are
expected over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...14.7 N... 72.8 W.  Movement
toward...west near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. 
Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.

 

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

538 posted on 07/15/2005 1:50:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Windshear is tearing her apart.


539 posted on 07/15/2005 1:59:12 PM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo

That's fine with me--I'm hoping it is a complete destruction.


540 posted on 07/15/2005 2:02:23 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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