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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: nwctwx

Man look at all that mositure pouring into the GOM, Emily will be well fed for the next few days! But I think I see what you are talking about looks like dry air (high) about to set up over texas. right?


461 posted on 07/15/2005 9:49:53 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: Diddle E. Squat

LoL..

Sorry I needed a placeholder and couldn't think of anything witty to say. I am going to Cozemel for my honeymoon on 8/8 (Fiance's parents paid for the vacation, only reason I am going to Mexico) and am hoping there is something left when we get there. As much as I hate Mexico I don't want the honeymoon ruined.


462 posted on 07/15/2005 9:51:22 AM PDT by Xenophobic Alien ("It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level.")
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To: jpsb

That streak of dry air actually demarcates the trough, which has moisture out in front of it.


463 posted on 07/15/2005 9:52:39 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: jpsb

The broken line shows where the surface reflection of the trough was at the last reading (15z)... that map updates every 3 hours.

464 posted on 07/15/2005 9:56:06 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Dog Gone

Several years back, I big cane was threatening Galveston, here in San Leon we thought about getting out but couldn't cause we were not allowed to leave until Galveston was evacuated, miles and miles and miles of cars for two days, no way San Leon evacutes just too many people in greater danger then us. Hard to believe we, a little penninuslar that jutes out into Galveston bay, most of which is 4 to 8 above sea level is considered safer then the rest of the country. But that's the way it is. I live on the higest ground in San Leon right on the Bay and 12' above sea level. Guess I will have (lots) company if the cane comes here. Another good thing is I would be on the leeward side of San Leon for any cane that comes in south of me. The bad news is that a 20 foot surge puts me in my attic, and I ain't going into the attic, death trap.


465 posted on 07/15/2005 10:00:03 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: nwctwx

Ohh well, guess I am not such a good weather man LOL, happy you are so you can tell me what I am looking at.


466 posted on 07/15/2005 10:01:10 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: Dog Gone
FYI

San Leon

467 posted on 07/15/2005 10:11:30 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb
Even being on the highest point of that peninsula, which according to Google Earth is a whopping 13 feet above sea level, you're going to be toast in any Category 3 storm.

If you still think you're in the crosshairs of Emily on Monday, you need to get out no later than Tuesday morning, preferably before rush hour.

468 posted on 07/15/2005 10:20:02 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Well if one is going to leave here one must leave before the Galveston is ordered to evacute, cause after that it is almost imposible to get out.

A cat three would bring in an 8-12 foot surge, manageable for me, but puts most of this area underwater. I worry about surges over 12 .... cat 4, cat 5, maybe a strong three.

469 posted on 07/15/2005 10:24:06 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb

The storm surge doesn't count waves on top of it. Unless you want to be sitting in your living room with 6 foot waves hitting the side of your house with chunks of your neighbors' homes in them, you'd best not be in the area.


470 posted on 07/15/2005 10:37:57 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Moose4
I work at a rehab hospital and we have been practicing since may. Most of the time these things headed our way turn north but you never know and have to be ready. I was serious about a TX BBQ though. It's time to clean out the deep freeze:')I have read all yalls theories and predictions and I have my own. When a storm approaching I get this nesting urge to stock and of all things clean my house. Guys, I'm feeling like spring cleaning right now

I need to go pick up a few things at Walmart when I get off, including the ICE CREAM! Don't ask lol

471 posted on 07/15/2005 10:38:13 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: All

Pressure up another 1mb to 970, eyewall still reforming

----

578
URNT12 KNHC 151702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/16:45:00Z
B. 14 deg 25 min N
071 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2841 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 074 deg 100 kt
G. 341 deg 011 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 7 C/ 3063 m
J. 17 C/ 3042 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. E09/12/18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 14:56:20 Z
EYEWALL REFORMING SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE


472 posted on 07/15/2005 10:41:41 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
Can see the eye on Vis Sat again.

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 19a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on July 15, 2005

 
...Emily weakens a little bit more as it moves over the central
Caribbean Sea...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of Jamaica.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 14.5 north...longitude  72.0 west or about 395
miles...635 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

 
Emily has been moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr but a
turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track...Emily will be passing to the south or very near
Jamaica on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph...185 
km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily still is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in
strength is expected today.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 969 mb...28.61 inches.

 
Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are
possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to
produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.  These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Repeating the 2 PM AST position...14.5 N... 72.0 W.  Movement
toward...west near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. 
Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

473 posted on 07/15/2005 10:50:27 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Seems like she lost her breath a little with that eyewall replacement.


474 posted on 07/15/2005 10:57:07 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo

What happened?


475 posted on 07/15/2005 10:58:44 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

Eyewall replacement and windsheer weakened her.


476 posted on 07/15/2005 11:00:44 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: NautiNurse

I sure am glad that this one is not heading my way, but my luck with saying that, it will take a right after Cuba and come on! It sure did get big quick!


477 posted on 07/15/2005 11:01:14 AM PDT by malachismom
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To: OC_Steve

Ping for later


478 posted on 07/15/2005 11:03:58 AM PDT by OC_Steve (Yeahman, dangol'internet, tellyouwhat, manyougetonthere and clickclickclickclickclick)
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To: CajunConservative

very nice, yall have a great weather guy!


479 posted on 07/15/2005 11:04:27 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: malachismom

I'm counting on the "blam factor" to spare Texas.


480 posted on 07/15/2005 11:05:36 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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