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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: NautiNurse

Hey Nauti, I'm thinking all GOMers need to be alert for Emily. She is looking more northerly and IMHO, I don't think the ridge is going to be all that strong in the long run.


401 posted on 07/15/2005 6:56:46 AM PDT by varina davis
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To: varina davis

She's still a good distance SE of Jamaica. Full advisory due
within the hour.


402 posted on 07/15/2005 7:00:48 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I see more of the models have trended in TX's direction..


403 posted on 07/15/2005 7:10:28 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: dc-zoo

I would normally say that since she is strengthening too fast, it is pretty likely if she gets to cat 5, she would not sustain it until landfall.

But, since she will be hitting the Yuc pretty soon, she would weaken already and have time to re-strengthen over the Gulf and possibly make it to 5...sustaining until landfall.

Boy, I sure hope not.


404 posted on 07/15/2005 7:11:14 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: varina davis

Looks likea decent short wave coming through now on several models... not enough to pull it north like Dennis, but enough to keep it on a WNW/NW track. I'm becoming more confident of some sort of TX hit as time goes by.


405 posted on 07/15/2005 7:11:47 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: varina davis

***Hey Nauti, I'm thinking all GOMers need to be alert for Emily. She is looking more northerly and IMHO, I don't think the ridge is going to be all that strong in the long run.***



The local meteorologist is concerened about that here too.

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/link.asp?L=159592


406 posted on 07/15/2005 7:13:36 AM PDT by CajunConservative
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To: Flyer
I slept through it, but there is evidence it rained here last night. I have no idea how much.

Even when it rains here, I never get to see it.

407 posted on 07/15/2005 7:22:23 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: nwctwx

uh oh


408 posted on 07/15/2005 7:23:12 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: nwctwx

Winds holding at 131mph, pressure up again to 968mb.

707
URNT12 KNHC 151358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/13:30:20Z
B. 14 deg 16 min N
070 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2852 m
D. 100 kt
E. 120 deg 008 nm
F. 208 deg 088 kt
G. 120 deg 008 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 13 C/ 3052 m
J. 22 C/ 3020 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SE
M. CO/8/25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 11:54:30 Z
SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER


409 posted on 07/15/2005 7:28:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: rwfromkansas

Well, as the link to the discussion in 406 points out... the northward trend should have been expected. We have seen the same thing with the prior storms this year, and there is no way the ridge was going to hold quite as strong as it was for a week straight. The main ridge is centered over the Atlantic, and we have continually seen it pulse in and out of the GOM for the past few weeks. It was strong recently, and looks to be pulsing out now (just in time for the storm to arrive). The affects will still be felt enough to keep the storm from hooking, but the weakness looks to be just enough to keep it on a fairly steady path.

People talking cat 5 are getting ahead of themselves, but this should be a sizeable storm... the worst option here is if it shoots through the Yucatan channel, because we will see no break in the waves it's building. A long track storm, without hitting some sort of landmass prior to landfall is going to have a heck of a surge.


410 posted on 07/15/2005 7:30:40 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Looks like an eye wall replacement going on. New NHC forecast will have a TX landfall. Forecast shear in the GOM will keep the intensity the same from the Yucatan to landfall.


411 posted on 07/15/2005 7:35:58 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

go to mexico...go to mexico...go to mexico...

Biting our nails in Corpus Christi.


412 posted on 07/15/2005 7:36:10 AM PDT by Chasaway (and)
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To: nwctwx
This is the only Jamaica Radar I have located. Do you have another site--perhaps a loop?
413 posted on 07/15/2005 7:36:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I'll search my links... looks like the same one I had last yr, but I did have that site with a loop.


414 posted on 07/15/2005 7:38:24 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx; varina davis; mhking; Dog Gone; All
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on July 15, 2005

....Emily a little weaker...still a dangerous hurricane...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of Jamaica.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 14.4 north...longitude  70.9 west or about 465
miles...745 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...Emily will be passing to the south or very
near Jamaica on Saturday.

 
Data from a reconnaissance plane and satellite data indicate that
Emily has weakened a little and maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is
a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
Latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 968 mb...28.59 inches.

Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are
possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to
produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.  These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Repeating the 11 am AST position...14.4 N... 70.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...125
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

415 posted on 07/15/2005 7:39:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone

Are you sure it wasn't the sprinklers?


416 posted on 07/15/2005 7:42:52 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: nwctwx
New NHC forecast will have a TX landfall.

How about a Rio Grande landfall?


417 posted on 07/15/2005 7:45:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone; varina davis; nwctwx
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 15, 2005

 
an Air Force plane currently observing the structure of Emily has
reported concentric eyewalls of 8 and 25 N mi respectively. This
suggests that Emily may be going through an eyewall replacement
cycle...which would result in fluctuations in intensity. Because
the last time the recon measured winds to support category four
hurricane was early this morning...there is no eye observed on
satellite imagery...and the cloud pattern has deteriorated...the
initial intensity has been reduced to 110 kt in this advisory. The
upper-level environment is not as favorable for strengthening as it
was for Dennis last week.  Water vapor images show a large
upper-low over the western Caribbean and this feature will likely
increase the shear over Emily. In fact...the SHIPS model is showing
increasing shear over the western Caribbean.  For the past few
days...all global models were weakening the upper-low and they
still do...but this feature has become larger instead. Therefore...
some weakening is forecast but assuming that the global models will
likely be partially correct in forecasting a favorable upper-level
environment...Emily is forecast to remain as major hurricane
over the western Caribbean Sea. Once Emily crosses Yucatan and
weakens...none of the guidance suggests re-intensification over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast follows this
scenario.

 
Emily has continued to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees
at 17 knots around the periphery a strong deep layer subtropical
ridge which is the strongest from the Bahamas westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern would keep Emily on this general track
through the next 5 days. The official forecast is on the southern
edge of the track envelope since all guidance has shown a northward
bias so far.

The structure of Emily has been able to be observed by the
Netherlands Antilles radar located at Curacao.
-
Forecaster Avila

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      15/1500z 14.4n  70.9w   110 kt
 12hr VT     16/0000z 15.0n  73.5w   105 kt
 24hr VT     16/1200z 16.5n  77.0w   105 kt
 36hr VT     17/0000z 18.0n  80.0w   105 kt
 48hr VT     17/1200z 19.5n  83.0w   105 kt
 72hr VT     18/1200z 22.0n  89.0w    90 kt
 96hr VT     19/1200z 25.0n  94.0w    90 kt
120hr VT     20/1200z 26.0n  98.5w    60 kt

418 posted on 07/15/2005 7:47:15 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Once Emily crosses Yucatan and weakens...none of the guidance suggests re-intensification over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Quite the opposite of my conceptions.

419 posted on 07/15/2005 7:50:38 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: NautiNurse

They should give me a job. ;-)

I wonder if it matters that I don't have a met degree.


420 posted on 07/15/2005 7:51:31 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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