The broken line shows where the surface reflection of the trough was at the last reading (15z)... that map updates every 3 hours.
Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Man look at all that mositure pouring into the GOM, Emily will be well fed for the next few days! But I think I see what you are talking about looks like dry air (high) about to set up over texas. right?
LoL..
Sorry I needed a placeholder and couldn't think of anything witty to say. I am going to Cozemel for my honeymoon on 8/8 (Fiance's parents paid for the vacation, only reason I am going to Mexico) and am hoping there is something left when we get there. As much as I hate Mexico I don't want the honeymoon ruined.
That streak of dry air actually demarcates the trough, which has moisture out in front of it.
The broken line shows where the surface reflection of the trough was at the last reading (15z)... that map updates every 3 hours.
Several years back, I big cane was threatening Galveston, here in San Leon we thought about getting out but couldn't cause we were not allowed to leave until Galveston was evacuated, miles and miles and miles of cars for two days, no way San Leon evacutes just too many people in greater danger then us. Hard to believe we, a little penninuslar that jutes out into Galveston bay, most of which is 4 to 8 above sea level is considered safer then the rest of the country. But that's the way it is. I live on the higest ground in San Leon right on the Bay and 12' above sea level. Guess I will have (lots) company if the cane comes here. Another good thing is I would be on the leeward side of San Leon for any cane that comes in south of me. The bad news is that a 20 foot surge puts me in my attic, and I ain't going into the attic, death trap.
Ohh well, guess I am not such a good weather man LOL, happy you are so you can tell me what I am looking at.
If you still think you're in the crosshairs of Emily on Monday, you need to get out no later than Tuesday morning, preferably before rush hour.
A cat three would bring in an 8-12 foot surge, manageable for me, but puts most of this area underwater. I worry about surges over 12 .... cat 4, cat 5, maybe a strong three.
The storm surge doesn't count waves on top of it. Unless you want to be sitting in your living room with 6 foot waves hitting the side of your house with chunks of your neighbors' homes in them, you'd best not be in the area.
I need to go pick up a few things at Walmart when I get off, including the ICE CREAM! Don't ask lol
Pressure up another 1mb to 970, eyewall still reforming
----
578
URNT12 KNHC 151702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/16:45:00Z
B. 14 deg 25 min N
071 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2841 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 074 deg 100 kt
G. 341 deg 011 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 7 C/ 3063 m
J. 17 C/ 3042 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. E09/12/18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 14:56:20 Z
EYEWALL REFORMING SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
...Emily weakens a little bit more as it moves over the central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 72.0 west or about 395 miles...635 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Emily has been moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr but a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...Emily will be passing to the south or very near Jamaica on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily still is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is expected today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km.
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 969 mb...28.61 inches.
Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica... with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...14.5 N... 72.0 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
Seems like she lost her breath a little with that eyewall replacement.
What happened?
Eyewall replacement and windsheer weakened her.
I sure am glad that this one is not heading my way, but my luck with saying that, it will take a right after Cuba and come on! It sure did get big quick!
Ping for later
very nice, yall have a great weather guy!
I'm counting on the "blam factor" to spare Texas.
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