Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[NautiNurse]

Hang in there--still a lot of time and distance for this storm.

[Howlin]

The tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands is becoming more organized.

I'm ignorning you. :-)

[libsrscum]

"They should give me a job. ;-) I wonder if it matters that I don't have a met degree."

It doesn't matter to me! I appreciate your reports and those of others on these threads. I'm safely tucked away in Northern VA but enjoy reading these threads as I learn a lot. Thanks to all. Stay safe.

[nwctwx]

Thanks.

FWIW, the NHC call that no models re-strengthen the storm after the Yucatan is a bit misleading. The GFS, NOGAPS, and the UKMET strengthen it again once clearing the Yucatan.

[Dog Gone]

There are some important videos that can be viewed at this site created by Harris County.

I strongly urge every resident of greater Houston to view them. Other stormwatchers may find it interesting to see how vulnerable Houston is, including the largest petrochemical complex in the world.

Each video is about 10 minutes long. They literally could save your life by demonstrating what's at stake here.

jpsb, you might want to ping your list to that site, and you'll definitely want to view them. You live in the area that is most in harm's way.

[Dog Gone]

Are you sure it wasn't the sprinklers?

No. Dammit.

[Moose4]

And the scary part, with that track, is that it's threading the needle between landmasses that might disrupt it as it heads WNW. Other than maybe grazing part of the Yucatan, there isn't a thing out there to slow it down.

Folks in South Texas better start tying down the armadillos, that looks really nasty.

}:-)4

[SouthTexas]

I don't know, our cars were wet this morning, but the sidewalk was dry. Think wife got up early and rinsed everything off.

[rwfromkansas]

wonder why they shifted it south?

[rwfromkansas]

Apparently, some shear is growing in the western Carrib that may weaken the storm

[blam]

"Hey Nauti, I'm thinking all GOMers need to be alert for Emily. She is looking more northerly and IMHO, I don't think the ridge is going to be all that strong in the long run."

I got my eye on it.

I'm afraid it's gonna crash into the Yucatan, hurt itself and then come running home to me, lol.

[NautiNurse]

I'm afraid it's gonna crash into the Yucatan, hurt itself and then come running home to me

Too funny! Of course, that would mean she needs to pass by here for the nurse to have a good look at her too.

[NautiNurse]

99L looks like a fish.

[jpsb]

see 425, houston cane watchers;

[ImaGraftedBranch]

My call: It has already slowed down due to hitting some dry air overnight...I think that it will get sucked up into the anti-cyclone feed from the North, trip over western Cuba, and get tugged North. Western Louisiana landfall.

Nobody has called this, so at least it is unique... :)

[jpsb]

I don't think a Yactan hit is going to happen, Another rainy day in Galveston, the High is weakening and I expect a more northward course.

[jpsb]

I think that is more likely than a Yuctan hit.

[nwctwx]

Any weakening should be done for now, looks like the eye is trying to re-appear.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-332-1121442788.jpg

[ImaGraftedBranch]

Yes, I think it is more likely as well. If you look at the BIG picture, however, you see larger systems that will influence it in the near future. If you have broadband, take a look at this

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24+-update+3600 and look at the energy that will be feeding it from the North.