[jpsb]

I think that is more likely than a Yuctan hit.

[ImaGraftedBranch]

Yes, I think it is more likely as well. If you look at the BIG picture, however, you see larger systems that will influence it in the near future. If you have broadband, take a look at this

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24+-update+3600 and look at the energy that will be feeding it from the North.