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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: Dog Gone

Well did you save the kid and cat in the dry soil crack?

mc :>))


441 posted on 07/15/2005 9:08:27 AM PDT by mcshot (Boldly going nowhere with a smile and appreciation for life.)
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To: ImaGraftedBranch

Very cool link, last couple of loops show serious north turn.


442 posted on 07/15/2005 9:16:24 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb; ImaGraftedBranch

Really too soon to say if that's a short-term jog, or something real to watch.

FWIW, the 0z MM5 has a similar solution to what ImaGraftedBranch suggested. But, it's kind of on its own right now in this regard... landfall near TX/LA border, after hitting western Cuba. For this to work out, the storm definately needs to move north quickly... as it has it passing north of Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005071500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


443 posted on 07/15/2005 9:20:10 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: mcshot

OMG, I forgot entirely about them! Lemme go check.


444 posted on 07/15/2005 9:21:01 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: nwctwx

MM5 also seems to underplay the ridge over the atlantic, so I'm not really sure this is a viable solution.


445 posted on 07/15/2005 9:21:46 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Wow. Great link...I was just taking a swag based on the energy feed I saw that might affect it. Nice to see a model saying the same (I am WAY out of my league here, but this is FUN as long as nobody gets hurt)


446 posted on 07/15/2005 9:27:00 AM PDT by ImaGraftedBranch (Imagine 40,000,000 dead babies in a pile reaching to the sky. Think God hasn't noticed?)
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To: ImaGraftedBranch

Just wait till it gets near the GOM and FL turns on the Hurricane Magnet... ;-)


447 posted on 07/15/2005 9:28:38 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
I am judging by the weather here in Galveston county, was hot, hot, hot clear skies, scatered TStroms, now for two days overcast and raining. Me thinks the B high is retreating and me also thinks that allows Emily to follow a more northly course.

I am still thinking mid upper Texas coast but would not rule out west LA or even Fla pan handle.

448 posted on 07/15/2005 9:29:44 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: nwctwx
"Just wait till it gets near the GOM and FL turns on the Hurricane Magnet"

Never underestimate the power of the Fla Hurricane magnet.

449 posted on 07/15/2005 9:30:57 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: nwctwx
The MM5 is an experimental model that needs some professional counseling. When it's correct, I'm thinking it's by accident.

While I guess I wouldn't totally rule out a Lake Charles landfall this far out, it does seem on the very extreme edges of possibility.

450 posted on 07/15/2005 9:31:09 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse; blam

You two guys need a drink or something.

Yall must be getting giddy with what has happened lately with these storms.

Your senses of humor are intact,,,,,,for now.


451 posted on 07/15/2005 9:31:10 AM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: jpsb

The weather you are seeing now is due to a trough that dipped in yesterday... seems to be lifting out now. It will be interesting to see if the high can build back in or not. Either way, I think the trough might have created enough of a weakness in the western part of the high pressure to allow it to come into TX (maybe LA). Some models still try to build it back, hence the left hand hook right around landfall with the NHC track.


452 posted on 07/15/2005 9:32:03 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Dog Gone

Wow, amazing how cheesy that 2nd video is, to the point of being almost counterproductive.


453 posted on 07/15/2005 9:33:05 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Dog Gone

Yeah, the MM5 should be taken with a grain of salt. Only posting the different possibilities... not a forecast. :)

Though, the MM5 is often good with snowstorms, but not this mm5... there are several regional ones.


454 posted on 07/15/2005 9:33:45 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
"seems to be lifting out now"

Noticed my B is up 1/10th to 29.8, but it's still raining like heck.

455 posted on 07/15/2005 9:35:09 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: Diddle E. Squat

Yeah, the second one is way too melodramatic, although it probably would appeal to a certain segment of the population that would never watch a documentary if their life depended on it.


456 posted on 07/15/2005 9:36:39 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Xenophobic Alien

I vehemently disagree!


457 posted on 07/15/2005 9:37:13 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Dog Gone

tried to watch but after a couple of minutes 1% complete. This ain't my first hurricane, so I know what can happen, if Emily comes directly to Galveston I am outta here.


458 posted on 07/15/2005 9:42:25 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb

It's still sitting over TX, but this loop (and others) show that it has stopped digging south, and it turning from a SW/NE orientation to more of a S/N one. This is a good indication that it's about to move out (in the next 24 hours).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html


459 posted on 07/15/2005 9:43:43 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: jpsb
On dial-up, it's probably futile to attempt to watch the videos. The first one is a good documentary on what happened in Allison and what might happen during a Cat 5 storm. Essentially the entire southeast part of greater Houston goes deep underwater extending into downtown.

The second one is a fake newscast describing the same thing. The main lesson is that it would take 30 hours to evacuate the population in a life-threatening area.

460 posted on 07/15/2005 9:46:12 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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