Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[mcshot]

Well did you save the kid and cat in the dry soil crack?

mc :>))

[jpsb]

Very cool link, last couple of loops show serious north turn.

[nwctwx]

Really too soon to say if that's a short-term jog, or something real to watch.

FWIW, the 0z MM5 has a similar solution to what ImaGraftedBranch suggested. But, it's kind of on its own right now in this regard... landfall near TX/LA border, after hitting western Cuba. For this to work out, the storm definately needs to move north quickly... as it has it passing north of Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005071500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dog Gone]

OMG, I forgot entirely about them! Lemme go check.

[nwctwx]

MM5 also seems to underplay the ridge over the atlantic, so I'm not really sure this is a viable solution.

[ImaGraftedBranch]

Wow. Great link...I was just taking a swag based on the energy feed I saw that might affect it. Nice to see a model saying the same (I am WAY out of my league here, but this is FUN as long as nobody gets hurt)

[nwctwx]

Just wait till it gets near the GOM and FL turns on the Hurricane Magnet... ;-)

[jpsb]

I am judging by the weather here in Galveston county, was hot, hot, hot clear skies, scatered TStroms, now for two days overcast and raining. Me thinks the B high is retreating and me also thinks that allows Emily to follow a more northly course.

I am still thinking mid upper Texas coast but would not rule out west LA or even Fla pan handle.

[jpsb]

"Just wait till it gets near the GOM and FL turns on the Hurricane Magnet"

Never underestimate the power of the Fla Hurricane magnet.

[Dog Gone]

The MM5 is an experimental model that needs some professional counseling. When it's correct, I'm thinking it's by accident.

While I guess I wouldn't totally rule out a Lake Charles landfall this far out, it does seem on the very extreme edges of possibility.

[cajungirl]

You two guys need a drink or something.

Yall must be getting giddy with what has happened lately with these storms.

Your senses of humor are intact,,,,,,for now.

[nwctwx]

The weather you are seeing now is due to a trough that dipped in yesterday... seems to be lifting out now. It will be interesting to see if the high can build back in or not. Either way, I think the trough might have created enough of a weakness in the western part of the high pressure to allow it to come into TX (maybe LA). Some models still try to build it back, hence the left hand hook right around landfall with the NHC track.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Wow, amazing how cheesy that 2nd video is, to the point of being almost counterproductive.

[nwctwx]

Yeah, the MM5 should be taken with a grain of salt. Only posting the different possibilities... not a forecast. :)

Though, the MM5 is often good with snowstorms, but not this mm5... there are several regional ones.

[jpsb]

"seems to be lifting out now"

Noticed my B is up 1/10th to 29.8, but it's still raining like heck.

[Dog Gone]

Yeah, the second one is way too melodramatic, although it probably would appeal to a certain segment of the population that would never watch a documentary if their life depended on it.

[Diddle E. Squat]

I vehemently disagree!

[jpsb]

tried to watch but after a couple of minutes 1% complete. This ain't my first hurricane, so I know what can happen, if Emily comes directly to Galveston I am outta here.

[nwctwx]

It's still sitting over TX, but this loop (and others) show that it has stopped digging south, and it turning from a SW/NE orientation to more of a S/N one. This is a good indication that it's about to move out (in the next 24 hours).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

[Dog Gone]

On dial-up, it's probably futile to attempt to watch the videos. The first one is a good documentary on what happened in Allison and what might happen during a Cat 5 storm. Essentially the entire southeast part of greater Houston goes deep underwater extending into downtown.

The second one is a fake newscast describing the same thing. The main lesson is that it would take 30 hours to evacuate the population in a life-threatening area.