Chinese dragon awakens

WT ^ | 6/26/05 | Bill Gertz

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.

U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems."

China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization.

The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.

"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military was able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," a senior defense official said.....

[proxy_user]

Well, China's economic growth will come to an abrupt halt if trade is cut off by a war.

That just might make them think twice.

[muawiyah]

Bird Flu is probably going to take care of the problem.

[b4its2late]

Think we'll do anything about it?

[The Electrician]

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "

I'm certain that it was just a coincidence that the shift occurred during the Clinton administration... (Uh, yeah)

[mainepatsfan]

Before the Olympics?

[devane617]

China does not need a war, because they are already going what it takes to own our country.

[SamAdams76]

The way the Chinese economy is going, Taiwan will be about significant to them as Puerto Rico is the the United States. In other words, why bother?

[ImpotentRage]

"Think we'll do anything about it?"

And louse up our trading with them? Surely you jest!

[verity]

"Well, China's economic growth will come to an abrupt halt if trade is cut off by a war."

IMHO, your observation is pretty much on target. It makes no sense for either China nor the U.S. to risk nuclear confrontation over Taiwan in the immediate future. There are responsible people on both sides who understand the concept of a Pyrrhic victory. Again IMHO, it would serve China much better to continue a slow expansion of its sphere of influence.

Of course, the question remains: What is our strategy?

[Wiz]

ping

[agrarianlady]

Can anyone help me not worry about the following:

1) Everything we buy is made in China.
2) They have gobs of our dollars, with nowhere to invest but in our treasuries.
3) Thus, our mortgages are cheap. Our houses have utterly ballooned in cost. We're in massive, massive amounts of debt. The rates may be low, but the principal balances are high and people aren't using nice low fixed rates, they're getting ARMs.

What if long-term interest rates rise (or another shock) and housing prices go under? Fannie and Freddie really concern me. I read at the OFHEO web site that they had one (stupid) computer problem that skewed some of their figures for 20 years. It seems like a horrible idea to let lenders sell their trashy loans to a Government-supported entitiy.

Does China somehow benefit if/we go under? Or will they be up a creek too?

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #12

If U.S. goes down, China will, too. Actually, the whole world will.

[Dutch Boy]

Is there a source for how much of the US China owns. I hear ranges form very little to nearly everything. What is the actual data?

I deal with China on a near daily basis due to my company's suicide outsource policy. If it wasn't for the consistent failures of nearly every thing the touch I would have quit a long time ago. It's sort of like waiting for the train wreck you know is coming. They have missed every schedule they have set. What takes us days takes weeks or months for them.

[Dat Mon]

You said..."The way the Chinese economy is going, Taiwan will be about significant to them as Puerto Rico is the the United States. In other words, why bother?"

There are a couple of reasons...these are from China's perspective IMO..

a) It is a matter of national pride...and would serve as a unifying / nationalistic focal point.
b) Taiwan is significantly more advanced than China in terms of semiconductor technology and circuit board manufacture...their technology takes a leap forward.
c) There is already a growing bond between Taiwan and China in terms of the business and technical people who travel and work between the two countries...this would cement the relationship...permanently.
d) They would like to get their hands on some military technology and equipment we have provided to Taiwan.
e) They would like to rub OUR noses in the fact that we wont or cant do anything about it...because we wont risk our carrier groups in an asymmetrical military engagement. It makes a statement to the world that THEY have arrived.

Hows that for starters?

[jpsb]

Thanks alot free traders and wal-mart shoppers.

[jeremiah]

How about the fact that Gen McCarthur said that Taiwan is the linchpin of a defense of the Pacific rim??? The Chinese have footholds in our hemisphere, in the PI and Africa. When they move they will hold hegemony unlike any but the British did. We have been surpassed, it is just that we don't know it yet.

[Savage Beast]

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning."

What on earth could have brought about such a shift!?!!

[Kuehn12]

There doesn't seem to be anything new in the article. This article like many others is rehashing what we already known. I guess some think that if you say it enough it becomes more dramatic, and it make the Chinese look tougher than they really are. If they had given specific weapons systems that we didn't already know about, then would be cause for alarm.
I know about the J-10, F-16 knockoff. Type 98/99 MBT tank, which is still not in serial production. Flanker fighters which are good but not comparable with F-22, F-18 SuperHornet, and the JSF. I know that they are increasing their sealift capabilities, but they still lack airlift. Which includes heavy aircraft and helicopters. Despite all this Bill Gertz hasn't proven the case that war is just over the horizon nor that it is inevitable. There are to many variables. I think that Chinese are a nationalist state, but to call them fascist. I need more to hang that label on them. I don't see alot of goose stepping in pictures, but there does seem to be alot cell phones, computers, and fancy cars.