Iranian Alert - June 20, 2005 - The coming coup

Regime Change Iran ^ | 6.20.2005 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Top News Story

Editor: Myself A weblog on Iran, technology and pop culture, by Hossein Derakhshan

The coming coup

Iranian blogger, Hoder.com:

Things are really getting nasty here. After Karrubi's unbelievably blunt letter to the Supreme Leader, everything is suddenly changing. All non-fundamentalists are rallying behind Rafsanjani. Many are talking about a possible coup by Sepah and Basij after Friday's second round results.

It's also rumoured (now confirmed ) that Eqbal and Aftab, pro-reform newspapers, were seizes in the printing house last night after they published full text of the letter.

Karrubi for the first time has publically challenged the Supreme Leader and has accused his son of paving the way for an unexpectedly high vote for Ahmadinejad.

As for my own self, I've been advised to stay in Tehran for a couple of more days. But I have to attend a conference in London on Wednesday and if I can't get there by then, it'll be a huge risk staying in Iran.

Stay tuned.

Hoder is perhaps the most famous Iranian blogger. He is an Iranian journalist whose newspaper was shutdown by the regime. He moved to Canada, began blogging and has been a supporter of the reformist movement. He is currently in Iran to witness the vote. He provides a glimpse into the reformist mind in Iran.

He is also reported:

According to ISNA , Saeed Mortazavi, chief prosecutor of Tehran, has released a warning for people who use SMS to spread news, views, and jokes for or against candidates, usually against the fundamentalist candidate, "Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad":

Those who don't comply "will be prosecuted and their phones will be seized," the note reads.

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

• Iran Focus reported that members of Iran's hard-line paramilitary Bassij forces attacked campaigners for Rafsanjani.
• Iran Focus reported that some 1,000 copper workers staged a hunger strike.
• Iran va Jahan laments the fact that although the vote rigging allegations in the first round of the elections in Iran are the most blatant, the world media is silent.
• The Wall Street Journal said that the most astonishing aspect of Friday's presidential vote in Iran is that Tehran managed to convince so many in the West that this is a real demonstration of democracy.
• Michael Ledeen's sources inside Iran's Interior Ministry put the actual number of voters was roughly seven million people. This means 17 million votes were fraudulent.
• Adnkronos International reported that following charges of vote rigging Iran's powerful Guardian Council decided to recount part of the votes. Yahoo News also.
• The New York Times reported Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as saying, Throughout the Middle East the fear of free of choices can no longer justify the denial of liberty. It is time to abandon the excuses that are made to avoid the hard work of democracy.
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s former Parliament Speaker and presidential hopeful Mehdi Karroubi resignedhis membership of the powerful State Expediency Council and stepped down as an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in protest against rigging of the polls.
• ABC News reported Noble Prize winner Shirin Ebadi as saying stoning is still occurring in Iran and regarding the election, the result is not a true reflection of the will of the people.
• And finally, Kenneth R. Timmerman's publisher Crown Forum released an excerpt of his new book, Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran, Chapter 1: THE DEFECTOR. (Iran's involvement in 9/11). A must read.

[Khashayar]

The Islamic Republic Embassy in Ottawa, Canada was attacked by group of angry Iranians on June 16th, 2005.

[Khashayar]

Protest in front of Iranian embassy in Ottawa, canada!

Red means a bloody regime!

[Khashayar]

Angry Iranians protest in front of Iranian embassy in Ottawa, Canada

[nuconvert]

Gee, this all sounds familiar. ;~ )

[AdmSmith]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/06/22/wiran22.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/06/22/ixworld.html

Don't pin hopes for reform on Rafsanjani, Britain warns
By Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic Editor
(Filed: 22/06/2005)

Britain adopted a more confrontational policy towards Iran yesterday when officials assailed the credibility of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the likely winner of Friday's presidential election run-off.


Many Iranian reformists, alarmed that his opponent, the hardline former mayor of Teheran Mahmood Ahmadinejad, came second in the initial round of voting, have called on supporters to switch their votes to the 70-year-old Mr Rafsanjani despite the fact that he is a veteran of the regime.

The wily cleric, who served as president from 1989 to 1997, has cast himself as a centrist, and has dropped several hints that he was open to dealing with America.

But a senior British diplomat dismissed Mr Rafsanjani's reputation as a "pragmatist", and cast doubt over whether he would make it easier to resolve the crisis over Teheran's nuclear programme.

"It's important that people do not see Rafsanjani as a white knight. He has been president for eight years, and a lot of bad things happened in those eight years," he said. "He does not have a record of reform, co-operation with the West or abiding by international standards.

"We hear what he says, and we like it. But there is a difference between talking the talk and walking the walk."

Mr Rafsanjani, a confidant of Ayatollah Khomeini, is believed to have been intimately involved in decisions over Iran's nuclear programme. He has been implicated in the murder of scores of dissidents by Teheran's intelligence services, which he controlled as president.

After years of "engagement" with Iran, in the hope of strengthening the outgoing reformist President Mohammad Khatami, officials now appear to given up on the view of Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, who once described Iran as an "emerging democracy".

Many in the Foreign Office believe that the Iranian regime is "dying" and are pushing for the Government to "align" itself more with calls for change. Options being discussed include increasing the number of hours broadcast by the BBC Persian service, and supporting the creation of a Persian-language satellite TV station.

Britain, France and Germany face a crucial round of negotiations with Iran later this summer, when they have promised to present Teheran with new proposals to resolve the crisis over the nuclear programme.

Teheran says it wants to develop nuclear power only to generate electricity, but America and Europe fear it is developing the technology to build a weapon.

[AdmSmith]

Surprise, surprise, I never thought that I would agree with an article from these crackpots
http://www.socialistworker.org/2005-2/549/549_11_Iran.shtml

But the hard right is determined to show that it still can mobilize its base, remaining a force to be reckoned with that cannot be marginalized. Whether orchestrated through fraud or not, Ahmadinejad's second-place finish is meant to act as a brake on Rafsanjani - a reminder that the "pragmatists" can't cut out the right completely, and that he should look to the conservatives and not the reformists in setting policy.

But there is a chance that the right could go too far - and try to impose Ahmadinejad as the next president. This would be a miscalculation that could set the stage for mass protests - and give new life to pro-reform, pro-democracy forces.

[AdmSmith]

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=32802&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iran Ministry warns of fraud in president run-off

Wednesday, June 22, 2005 IranMania.com

LONDON, June 22 (IranMania) - Iran's interior ministry warned of the prospect of even greater fraud in this week's presidential election run-off by "some people who are ready to do anything to stay in power", AFP reported.

The ministry, in charge of organising the election, said the days ahead of last Friday's first round saw "people belonging to instititions whose job is to protect people and reinforce order... orchestrate and organise people's vote".

"They might do it again and even stronger this time," a visibly angry interior ministry spokesman Jahanbakhsh Khanjani told reporters.

"We do our best to confront that," he said, cryptically pointing the finger at "some people who are ready to do anything to stay in power and manipulate the election".

Three of the seven candidates who stood in the first round of the election last Friday have complained of rigging they say were aimed at propelling Tehran's ultra-hardline mayor Mahmood Ahmadinejad into a run-off against moderate conservative cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

"The intelligence ministry has recognised some of the key elements, and the intelligence and the judiciary must confront them and announce their findings before the election" run-off this Friday, Khanjani said.

But he mysteriously added that "the mastermind may not be revealed because it is not to the benefit of the country".

The allegations of rigging did not concern the stuffing of ballot boxes, but rather an organised campaign to bring out right-wing voters and sway undecided Iranians through cash payments.

comment:May we guess that the name of the mastermind is K...

[DoctorZIn]

To read today’s thread click here.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

[nuconvert]

"May we guess that the name of the mastermind is K..."

Hard to be sure. It could be R... too.

[nuconvert]

"Ahmadinejad's second-place finish is meant to act as a brake on Rafsanjani "

I'm not so sure about that. I think it was to get people to the polls in the run-off (using Ahmadi Nejad as a scare tactic), and make Rafsanjani look popular and make the election of him look more legitimate. Plus (if it all works out) he can say he got more votes than even Khatami got. A little icing on the cake.


The people must continue to boycott!

[nuconvert]

"Britain adopted a more confrontational policy towards Iran yesterday when officials assailed the credibility of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the likely winner of Friday's presidential election run-off."

Well, it's about time!

[AdmSmith]

I think it was to get people to the polls in the run-off (using Ahmadi Nejad as a scare tactic), and make Rafsanjani look popular and make the election of him look more legitimate.

I do not believe in grand scale conspiracies. I think that it is a big power struggle behind, i.e. a small scale conspiracy ;-)

[nuconvert]

"I do not believe in grand scale conspiracies"

Call it what you like. But when they announce Rafsanjani as the winner in almost a landslide, maybe you'll be more convinced that it was all a 'game'.

[Valin]

Here are the reasons (1) they kicked out anybody who was half intelligent, therefore had some sort of independent thought. (2) If anything is anti-Democrat, anti-progressive, it is right. (3) Most of these people live in bunkers and homeschool their kids, so they pollute them even more, and only read out of the King James.

It's true, isn't it?
The poster forgot we are ALL a mob of Bible-thumping, knuckle-dragging, Scripture-spouting, hellfire and brimstone-preaching, rightwing, gun-toting, bigoted, homophobic, moralistic, paternalistic, polyester-wearing, mascara-smeared, false-eyelashed, SUV-driving, Wal-Mart shopping, big hair, big gut, fat butt, holy-rolling, snake-handling, Limbaugh-listening, Bambi-shooting, trailer-park-dwelling, uneducated, ignorant, backwater, hayseed, hick, inbred, pinhead rubes -- mostly from the South, or places no better than the South -- who voted for Bush.


Well I've got to go clean my 155 howitzer now.

[AdmSmith]

I think that some members of the Guardian Council rigged the first round and provided "extra" votes for Ahmadinejad, and that this has freightened some of the "ordinary suspects". Check out the title of this thread.

The coming days will be very interesting, prepare for weekend duty in most of the capitals, not only for the neighbors. Follow the Tehran stock exchange for indications today and tomorrow...http://www.tse.ir/

[nuconvert]

I know the 'coup' word is being used quite a bit. But Ahmadinejad is being very vocal about the societal restrictions he'd like to impose, which is just a tactic to scare the people into voting for Rafsanjani.
And I'm sure after they announce the winner,(Rafsanjani), the Tehran stock market will shoot up.
Pistachios, anyone?

[nuconvert]

Lol

[AdmSmith]

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=2557

Iran Focus

Tehran, Jun. 22 One of Iran's state-run news agencies announced the results of a pre-election poll for the election run-off due on Friday between frontrunner Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and contender Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, showing the latter had greater support.

According to the poll, 47.79 percent supported Ahmadinejad, the ultra-conservative appointed mayor of Tehran, while only 35.73 percent supported Rafsanjani, a hard-line cleric and former President.

A separate poll conducted by the state broadcasting organ found that 43.56 percent of prospective voters favoured Ahmadinejad and 36.50 favoured Rafsanjani.

State-run polls are rarely accurate and tend not to report on the level of voter apathy.

[AdmSmith]

In a country with 15 per cent inflation, 12 per cent unemployment and gross domestic capital per head of $2,000, many people resent the alleged opulence of Mr Rafsanjani and his family, they will instead vote for the Islamic socialist
Ahmadinejad.

The hardliners in the Abadgaran are socially conservative, but far to the left on economic policy, supporting, for example, government subsidies to keep prices down for different products. More of the same and a recipe for a coming disaster.

[nuconvert]

And releasing these numbers will further frighten people into voting for Rafsanjani.