Posted on 06/14/2005 8:00:23 AM PDT by Dan from Michigan
2nd District primaries today
11 Republicans, six Democrats running
By Barry M. Horstman Post staff reporter
After a bruising Republican campaign and complaints among some Democrats about party leaders trying to force their choices on them, voters in portions of Greater Cincinnati will go to the polls today to select the finalists in the 2nd Congressional District race.
The victors in the GOP and Democratic primaries in the sprawling seven-county district, which stretches from eastern Hamilton County and southern Warren County to Portsmouth, will face each other Aug. 2 for the U.S. House seat vacated by Rep. Rob Portman this spring when he accepted President Bush's cabinet-level appointment as U.S. trade representative.
With the district having the most lopsided Republican advantage of any congressional district - President Bush carried it by a 2-to-1 margin last November and Portman routinely received even bigger landslides - the winner in the 11-candidate GOP primary will be a prohibitive favorite in August.
Of the 11 Republicans, four - state Rep. Tom Brinkman Jr., Hamilton County Commissioner Pat DeWine, former U.S. Rep. Bob McEwen and former state Rep. Jean Schmidt - began and ended the primary as the presumptive frontrunners due to the name identification, political experience and resources, financial and otherwise, that they carried into the campaign.
Most of the seven others are little-known first-time candidates whose very long odds for an upset hinge on the favorites so severely splitting the vote that a darkhorse could slip through.
While the district has been solidly Republican for decades, the six Democrats in the race - one of them a write-in - insist that they are not engaged in an exercise in political futility, arguing that the right matchup in August, combined with the lower turnout and different dynamics of a special election, offer them a glimmer of hope.
Among the Democrats, the three candidates who have mounted the strongest campaigns are Indian Hill lawyer Paul Hackett, a Marine Corps reservist recently returned from Iraq; former Waynesville mayor Charles Sanders, who was walloped by Portman in the past four elections, and Indian Hill physician Victoria Wells Wulsin.
Hackett has been endorsed by Democratic committees in Hamilton, Brown, Clermont and Pike counties - a decided advantage, but one that also generated a backlash among some who view the endorsements as a slap at the other Democrats in the primary, particularly at Sanders.
The Republican campaign has been even more contentious, insuring that today's winner, if not seriously damaged, will at least be a bit scuffed up as he starts the seven-week general election campaign.
DeWine has run on the slogan "a proven conservative," but also has been thrown on the defensive by a divorce and other personal details that "family values" voters find unappealing.
For McEwen, who represented the nearby 6th District in Congress from 1981-1993, that experience was both the boon and bane of his campaign. While it allowed him to boast that he "wouldn't need a learning curve," it also forced him to again confront the issue largely responsible for his 1992 defeat: the 166 bad checks that he wrote on his U.S. House account.
Similarly, Brinkman's tenure in Columbus cut both ways, allowing supporters to hail his unwavering anti-tax, anti-abortion, pro-gun rights positions, but also permitting opponents to cast him as a rigid ideologue whose effectiveness is undermined by an unwillingness to compromise.
And Schmidt's two terms as a state representative from Clermont County played out the same way in her race, with her ability to cite her governmental experience offset by heavy attacks over her support for a state sales tax two years ago.
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IF YOU PLAN TO VOTE
The polls in the 2nd Congressional District will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. today.
In Hamilton County, voters uncertain of where to vote or who experience other Election Day problems may call the Hamilton County Board of Elections at (513) 632-7000 for assistance.
Correct order of finish for the top four Republicans, anyone?
McEwen,DeWIne,Brinkman,Schmidt
2. Schmidt - I think she'll get a lot of the pro-life vote, but the tax issue does her in. She was probably the leader for most of the race, but peaked momentum wise early. Being the only woman in the race helps some, but not enough with her tax votes.
3. DeWine - He'll get the casual voter's vote, but is a much stronger general election guy than a primary. Dad's fillibuster deal and gun grabs, along with his own family problems will sink him. It takes more than just money to win.
4. Bob McEwen - The check bouncing scandal and carpetbagging will leave a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of people. Is it long enough ago where people are ready to forgive? Also, much of his support is topheavy from Washington(Dobson, etc). He's no RINO however.
5. Eric Minamyer - This guy is the toughest to predict. I hear he's been working extremely hard in his campaign. He may surprise some people.
Then the rest of the pack.
1. Brinkman - late surge, last minute help from Club for Growth, and DeWine and McEwen tearing each other down outweighs the late negative attacks on Brinkman
2. McEwen - peaked a week ago, then fell as voters learned he's a check-bouncer and carpetbagger
3. DeWine - his campaign has collapsed
4. Schmidt - her campaign never got going and late ads made sure voters knew about her horrific record on taxes
5. Minamyer - late start and low name ID has him finishing last among the serious candidates
6. Bemmes
7. Fossett
8. Smith
9. Mink
10. Morgan
11. Austin
I'm gonna have to go with
1. DeWine
2. Schmidt
3. Brinkman
4. McEwen
Why? Why not? What the hell do I know?
Well, I went for Schmidt (insert razzes here). The only serious contenders were Brinkman, DeSwine, Schmidt, and McEwen. Minameyer would have been preferable, but had to minimize the damages.... after all:
DeSwine - had an affair with a lobbyist, then left his wife and kids (no shame parading the kids around for the camera), and at the same time cast a deciding vote for the lobbyist. Family values? my a**.....
McEwen - even if he was cleared from criminal charges, bouncing 166+ checks isn't a good thing...
Brinkman - can't stand what the creep is trying to do to the schools. Enforcing fiscal discipline is one thing - trying to repeal all school tax levies back 10 years (or more) is too much. Especially when you're trying to acheive such results with outright lies... Cutting spending is good, and cutting taxes is good if you can afford to without deficit spending. But assaults on schools based on lies and distortions are highly unethical, IMO. If a district is wasting money, call them on it - but don't claim that they can afford to cut back to the same spending as in 1991 (unadjusted for inflation) on a steady number of students, without serious negative impacts on the children.
I don't see any point in voting outside the big four -- although Minamyer has been an interesting candidate. Bemmes was badgering students at my kid's school to get their parents to vote for him; that turned some people off.
McEwen -- 166 bad checks and living in Virginia -- I think we can safely pass on this guy.
Brinkman -- I don't particularly care for legislators that are unpopular in the legislature. That doesn't do our district much good. I don't see this guy as anything but a terminal back-bencher.
Schmidt - her record on increasing taxes is disturbing. Her steength is in Clermont County, which is ok if the campaign is in Clermont County only. It's not.
DeWine - I'm not very happy with his Daddy right now, and he got his campaign finance from Bill Frist, his Daddy, and a few other Republican Senators. His personal life is not exactly without blemishes, either.
Problem is, which of these flawed candidates would actually represent the district best and give us the most influence in Washington? I hate to say it, but that would be DeWine.
Even with Daddy in the Senate, he's no Portman.
Maybe I'll just write in my own name.
If I lived in the district, I would be voting for Brinkman. However, I do think he will come up short.
Winner--Bob McEwen. He will get support in the eastern part of the district where he is pretty well known. I think the exurban Cincinnati counties will put him over the top because I think he will still struggle in Hamilton County.
2nd Place--Tom Brinkman. His core support will be in Hamilton County. He has the support of fiscal conservative groups (The Club for Growth was complimentary to him). I think not being able to get the big name family values leaders on state and national levels, like McEwen has, will hurt him in the end.
3rd Place--Jean Schmidt. I think she finds a way to make a decent showing. Her base will be around Clermont County. I think she will regret ever following Larry Householder and Bob Taft on that tax increase because if she did not vote for it, she is a State Senator probably headed to Congress this evening.
4th Place--Pat DeWine. I think this will be the beginning of the end of his career. Hamilton County Commissioner will be the highest he ever will go. While his father will take a political hit because of it, it won't be because of the compromise in the Senate that Pat lost. Pat is going to lose because of his own personal life.
Brinkman would have been far more popular if he voted to raise taxes and jack up spending well beyond the rate of inflation. Is that the kind of person you want representing us? It's not always popular to hold firm and vote the right way.
I reached the same conclusion, although I'm guessing the likely order of finish is McEwen, DeWine, Schmidt and Brinkman.
Assuming the Democrats actually manage to nominate Hackett, this could sadly become an interesting general election depending on who the Republican nominee turns out to be.
I was shocked to see this morning that she won, and even more shocked that she carried Hamilton County.
I voted at 6:15 pm and I was the only voter there (two precincts). Special elections just don't bring people out to vote.
I think Jean Schmidt will do a good job for the district. At least we kept DeWine and McEwen out.
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