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To: Dan from Michigan

Correct order of finish for the top four Republicans, anyone?


2 posted on 06/14/2005 8:30:49 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (Defeat Pat DeWine, RINO Mike DeWine's son! Tom Brinkman for Congress http://www.gobrinkman.com/)
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To: JohnnyZ

McEwen,DeWIne,Brinkman,Schmidt


3 posted on 06/14/2005 8:36:51 AM PDT by Gipper08 (Mike Pence in 2008)
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To: JohnnyZ
Unfortunately:

Dewine
McEwen
Schmidt
Brinkman

I say unfortunately because Dewine is at the top, not because Brinkman is at the bottom. Because of low turnout and so many candidates anything can happen. The most likely change from the above, IMHO, is flipping McEwen and Schmidt. Brinkman will have a hard time because so much of the district is outside the area where he will draw votes.
4 posted on 06/14/2005 8:38:24 AM PDT by klute
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To: JohnnyZ
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict:
1. Brinkman - He gets most of the gun vote and the anti-tax vote, and a lot of the small l libertarian vote. Momentum is on his side with a late surge from club for growth. His only real campaign weakness is lack of cash, but club for growth helped him out in a major way. It'll be close, but I think he'll win with about 28%.

2. Schmidt - I think she'll get a lot of the pro-life vote, but the tax issue does her in. She was probably the leader for most of the race, but peaked momentum wise early. Being the only woman in the race helps some, but not enough with her tax votes.

3. DeWine - He'll get the casual voter's vote, but is a much stronger general election guy than a primary. Dad's fillibuster deal and gun grabs, along with his own family problems will sink him. It takes more than just money to win.

4. Bob McEwen - The check bouncing scandal and carpetbagging will leave a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of people. Is it long enough ago where people are ready to forgive? Also, much of his support is topheavy from Washington(Dobson, etc). He's no RINO however.

5. Eric Minamyer - This guy is the toughest to predict. I hear he's been working extremely hard in his campaign. He may surprise some people.

Then the rest of the pack.

5 posted on 06/14/2005 8:50:24 AM PDT by Dan from Michigan (June 14 - Defeat DeWine - Vote Tom Brinkman for Congress (OH-2) - http://www.gobrinkman.com)
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To: JohnnyZ

If I lived in the district, I would be voting for Brinkman. However, I do think he will come up short.

Winner--Bob McEwen. He will get support in the eastern part of the district where he is pretty well known. I think the exurban Cincinnati counties will put him over the top because I think he will still struggle in Hamilton County.

2nd Place--Tom Brinkman. His core support will be in Hamilton County. He has the support of fiscal conservative groups (The Club for Growth was complimentary to him). I think not being able to get the big name family values leaders on state and national levels, like McEwen has, will hurt him in the end.

3rd Place--Jean Schmidt. I think she finds a way to make a decent showing. Her base will be around Clermont County. I think she will regret ever following Larry Householder and Bob Taft on that tax increase because if she did not vote for it, she is a State Senator probably headed to Congress this evening.

4th Place--Pat DeWine. I think this will be the beginning of the end of his career. Hamilton County Commissioner will be the highest he ever will go. While his father will take a political hit because of it, it won't be because of the compromise in the Senate that Pat lost. Pat is going to lose because of his own personal life.


10 posted on 06/14/2005 3:08:34 PM PDT by Columbus Dawg (Columbus: Where our mayor is not offended by rape, and our football players cause trouble.)
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