Then there are the 12-volt pizzeria and the 12-volt popcorn maker...for those who need a few more of the creature comforts beyond coffee...
Posted on 06/08/2005 3:59:21 PM PDT by Lonely Bull
000 WTNT31 KNHC 082059 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
Then there are the 12-volt pizzeria and the 12-volt popcorn maker...for those who need a few more of the creature comforts beyond coffee...
I think the Bermuda High is late settling in this year. Normally it stretches all the way down into the 20's, but it's still looking a little unsure of itself right now.
I don't know about canned squid, but I'm hooked on green olives stuffed with minced anchovy. I discovered it on a sailing cruise to Spain, and I can't get enough of them here.
That curling wand reminds me of another reason I'm glad we bought the generator: a hair dryer...even if it draws a lot of current, I'll turn off everything else in the house so I can use my hair dryer, LOL.
Oh my gosh! That sounds like it would make your mouth pucker LOL.
I don't think I could handle that.
If only artichoke hearts weren't so expensive! (not the marinated ones either-gag)
I still have water left over from last year. I've also got a lot of batteries. They had packs of 4 c & d batteries at the dollar store and I kind of got a lot more than I needed.
My kind of girls. I have to have the primping necessities, but all in all, if we make it through with family and homes intact you can't ask for more than that!
...Depression continues moving slowly northward over the northwest Caribbean...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for western Cuba for The Provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Depression One was located near latitude 17.6 north... longitude 83.9 west or about 210 miles... 340 km... west-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 290 miles... 470 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph ... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly in rain bands to the northeast of the center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.
Moisture flowing from the southwest into the depression is producing very heavy rains over portions of Central America...particularly Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.6 N... 83.9 W. Movement toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the depression remains poorly-organized...with a broad area of light winds near the estimated center. They did report one 35 kt wind at the 1000 ft flight level...on their last outbound leg about 70 N mi NE of the center. Based on that observation...the intensity is increased to 30 kt for this advisory. On satellite imagery however...the cloud pattern is not impressive and the banding features warrant only a t1.0 on the Dvorak scale. Southwesterly shear...associated with a sharp upper-level trough along 90w... continues to affect the tropical cyclone. Some abatement of the shear is expected but global model guidance suggests that the upper-level winds will be only marginally favorable for strengthening during the next few days. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one. This is a little higher than the SHIPS guidance...and a little lower than the GFDL forecast.
Initial motion is slowly northward...005/05. Global models show a ridge building toward the southeast U.S. Coast over the next couple of days...which should induce a gradual Bend in heading toward the north-northwest...and some increase in forward speed. The official forecast for this package is quite similar to the previous one. This is slightly east of the latest GFDL track and similar to the deep-layer BAM track.
It is important not to focus on the exact track shown here...because of uncertainties in the forecast...especially in the 2-3 day time frame.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 09/0300z 17.6n 83.9w 30 kt 12hr VT 09/1200z 18.7n 84.1w 30 kt 24hr VT 10/0000z 21.0n 84.6w 35 kt 36hr VT 10/1200z 23.5n 85.7w 45 kt 48hr VT 11/0000z 25.8n 86.8w 50 kt 72hr VT 12/0000z 30.5n 88.5w 50 kt...inland 96hr VT 13/0000z 35.0n 88.0w 25 kt...inland 120hr VT 14/0000z...inland...dissipated
It's the first stab at a tropical system this year. It's forming relatively close to the US and the Gulf waters aren't nearly as hot as they're going to get later.
It looks right now that it might hit Louisiana as a tropical storm, but those aren't a major problem unless they stall like Allison did over Houston in 2001. That was every bit as bad as a hurricane, and it did occur in June.
That's a great satellite view. We have already received weather from the outer bands of the system this evening.
TS Arlene!
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
"It surely wasn't me--opened a can of that stuff when I was in college...even the cat wouldn't touch it."
Fresh or frozen it makes excellent fish bait. Don't know about the canned version.
The storm will go between the dry areas right?
If you know anyway...or have a guess...
Party at NautiNurse's! Let's kick this season off RIGHT!
Waiting patiently (uh huh) for the 8:00am update. Looks like Pensacola is going to get some weather from this. Last I heard there are still blue tarps on roofs there from Ivan last year.
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