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Live Thread - Update: First in 2005 Tropical Storm Arlene Public Advisory 1
National Hurricane Center ^ | 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

Posted on 06/08/2005 3:59:21 PM PDT by Lonely Bull

000 WTNT31 KNHC 082059 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

$$


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; tropicalstorm
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To: varina davis; dawn53
A 12-volt pan sounds great!

Then there are the 12-volt pizzeria and the 12-volt popcorn maker...for those who need a few more of the creature comforts beyond coffee...


81 posted on 06/08/2005 6:57:05 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: VeniVidiVici

I think the Bermuda High is late settling in this year. Normally it stretches all the way down into the 20's, but it's still looking a little unsure of itself right now.


82 posted on 06/08/2005 7:02:23 PM PDT by SlowBoat407 (A living affront to Islam since 1959)
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To: tutstar
Anyone remember who it was that fell in love with canned squid last year?

I don't know about canned squid, but I'm hooked on green olives stuffed with minced anchovy. I discovered it on a sailing cruise to Spain, and I can't get enough of them here.

83 posted on 06/08/2005 7:04:07 PM PDT by SlowBoat407 (A living affront to Islam since 1959)
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To: varina davis; dawn53
and for the really obsessive-compulsive, there are the wet & dry vacuum cleaner and the curling iron...
:o)


84 posted on 06/08/2005 7:05:43 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

That curling wand reminds me of another reason I'm glad we bought the generator: a hair dryer...even if it draws a lot of current, I'll turn off everything else in the house so I can use my hair dryer, LOL.


85 posted on 06/08/2005 7:10:36 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: SlowBoat407

Oh my gosh! That sounds like it would make your mouth pucker LOL.
I don't think I could handle that.

If only artichoke hearts weren't so expensive! (not the marinated ones either-gag)

I still have water left over from last year. I've also got a lot of batteries. They had packs of 4 c & d batteries at the dollar store and I kind of got a lot more than I needed.


86 posted on 06/08/2005 7:17:33 PM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: dawn53; NautiNurse

My kind of girls. I have to have the primping necessities, but all in all, if we make it through with family and homes intact you can't ask for more than that!


87 posted on 06/08/2005 7:19:03 PM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: tutstar
Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005

...Depression continues moving slowly northward over the northwest
Caribbean...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for western Cuba for The Provinces of Pinar del Rio
and the Isle of Youth.

 
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was located near latitude 17.6 north... longitude
83.9 west or about 210 miles... 340 km... west-southwest of Grand
Cayman and about 290 miles... 470 km...south-southeast of the
western tip of Cuba.

The depression is moving toward the north near  6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue with
some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in rain bands to the northeast of the center. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.

 
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit
hurricane hunter aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

 
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.

Moisture flowing from the southwest into the depression is producing
very heavy rains over portions of Central America...particularly
Nicaragua and Honduras.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.6 N... 83.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

88 posted on 06/08/2005 7:31:02 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005

 
data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the
depression remains poorly-organized...with a broad area of light
winds near the estimated center.  They did report one 35 kt wind at
the 1000 ft flight level...on their last outbound leg about 70 N mi
NE of the center.  Based on that observation...the intensity is
increased to 30 kt for this advisory.  On satellite imagery
however...the cloud pattern is not impressive and the banding
features warrant only a t1.0 on the Dvorak scale.  Southwesterly
shear...associated with a sharp upper-level trough along 90w...
continues to affect the tropical cyclone.  Some abatement of the
shear is expected but global model guidance suggests that the
upper-level winds will be only marginally favorable for
strengthening during the next few days.  The official intensity
forecast is the same as the previous one.  This is a little higher
than the SHIPS guidance...and a little lower than the GFDL
forecast. 

Initial motion is slowly northward...005/05.  Global models show a
ridge building toward the southeast U.S. Coast over the next couple
of days...which should induce a gradual Bend in heading toward the
north-northwest...and some increase in forward speed.  The
official forecast for this package is quite similar to the previous
one.  This is slightly east of the latest GFDL track and similar to
the deep-layer BAM track.  

It is important not to focus on the exact track shown here...because
of uncertainties in the forecast...especially in the 2-3 day time
frame.

Forecaster Pasch

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      09/0300z 17.6n  83.9w    30 kt
 12hr VT     09/1200z 18.7n  84.1w    30 kt
 24hr VT     10/0000z 21.0n  84.6w    35 kt
 36hr VT     10/1200z 23.5n  85.7w    45 kt
 48hr VT     11/0000z 25.8n  86.8w    50 kt
 72hr VT     12/0000z 30.5n  88.5w    50 kt...inland
 96hr VT     13/0000z 35.0n  88.0w    25 kt...inland
120hr VT     14/0000z...inland...dissipated

89 posted on 06/08/2005 7:35:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
I'm not too worried about this one, although I reserve the right to panic at any moment.

It's the first stab at a tropical system this year. It's forming relatively close to the US and the Gulf waters aren't nearly as hot as they're going to get later.

It looks right now that it might hit Louisiana as a tropical storm, but those aren't a major problem unless they stall like Allison did over Houston in 2001. That was every bit as bad as a hurricane, and it did occur in June.

90 posted on 06/08/2005 7:44:34 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse
From WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (image updates every 30 minutes or so):


91 posted on 06/08/2005 7:50:53 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: mhking

That's a great satellite view. We have already received weather from the outer bands of the system this evening.


92 posted on 06/08/2005 8:05:39 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

TS Arlene!

WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN



$$


93 posted on 06/09/2005 4:16:45 AM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: tutstar; All

94 posted on 06/09/2005 4:22:13 AM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: tutstar; All

95 posted on 06/09/2005 4:22:56 AM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: NautiNurse

"It surely wasn't me--opened a can of that stuff when I was in college...even the cat wouldn't touch it."

Fresh or frozen it makes excellent fish bait. Don't know about the canned version.


96 posted on 06/09/2005 4:35:59 AM PDT by Rebelbase (Mexico, the 51st state.)
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To: Strategerist

The storm will go between the dry areas right?

If you know anyway...or have a guess...


97 posted on 06/09/2005 4:40:31 AM PDT by tutstar ( <{{--->< Impeach Judge Greer http://www.petitiononline.com/ijg520/petition.html)
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To: tutstar

98 posted on 06/09/2005 4:42:14 AM PDT by JoeSixPack1
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To: NautiNurse

Party at NautiNurse's! Let's kick this season off RIGHT!


99 posted on 06/09/2005 4:43:58 AM PDT by Hatteras
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To: JoeSixPack1; tutstar

Waiting patiently (uh huh) for the 8:00am update. Looks like Pensacola is going to get some weather from this. Last I heard there are still blue tarps on roofs there from Ivan last year.


100 posted on 06/09/2005 4:45:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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