Live Thread - Update: First in 2005 Tropical Storm Arlene Public Advisory 1

National Hurricane Center ^ | 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

[Lonely Bull]

000 WTNT31 KNHC 082059 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

$$

[AzaleaCity5691]

Oh, it's gonna hit here.

We've had bad flooding this year, so it's gonna be our storm that this storm hits here, and it ain't even been 9 months since Ivan hit.

[nmh]

I would imagine this would affect Aruba. Hope if she's there ... this doesn't stop their search/rescue. Evidence would be destroyed ... .

[alnick]

I appear to be in its projected path as well. I just hope it comes in very quickly so it will not strengthen into more than a heavy rain storm.

[Strategerist]

I would imagine this would affect Aruba.

This is over 1,000 miles from Aruba and heading away. Not the slightest effect there.

[NautiNurse]

For more comfortable reading...

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005

 

...Tropical depression forms in the northwestern Caribbean...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical
storm watch for western Cuba for the province of Pinar del Rio and
the Isle of Youth.

 
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was located near latitude 17.2 north... longitude
84.0 west or about 235 miles... 375 km... southwest of Grand Cayman
and about 315 miles... 510 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.

 
The depression is moving slowly northward as it organizes...but is
expected to begin moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/hr
tonight and Thursday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in rainbands to the north and east of the center.
Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

 
The minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

 
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.

 
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.2 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[NautiNurse]

Surf's up ping!

[dakine]

All right, where is Mr. "sunken island", aka "666"?

[CedarDave]

Another view of the same:

[Strategerist]

All right, where is Mr. "sunken island", aka "666"?

Ah, haven't seen him in months.

Actually there's been an astonishing lack of natural disasters to hype at all for the last three months or so.....lowest level of large quake activity I can remember, record-setting lack of tornadoes in May...that could be it.

[Howlin]

You were saying?

[Dog Gone]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005

 
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft located a
poorly-defined circulation center with light and variable winds and
a minimum pressure of 1004 mb. The aircraft also measured
flight-level winds near 25 to 30 kt...mostly confined to convective
bands well removed from the center. Based on this information...the
system has been classified as a tropical depression...and the
aircraft is still investigating the system. Currently... deep
convection is limited to narrow bands to the north and east....and
the outflow is restricted only to the west...primarily due to an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. However... most of the
global models weaken this trough and develop an upper-level ridge
over the system. This will provide an environment favorable for
gradual intensification. The depression could become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. This forecast is in general agreement
with SHIPS and GFDL guidance.

 
The system appears to be moving slowly toward the north at about 6
kt...while the steering currents are weak.  However...a ridge is
expected to build over the western Atlantic and central
Caribbean...which should lead to a gradual increase in forward
speed and a slight turn to the left into the Gulf of Mexico.  The
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...and NOGAPS bring the system near the northern
Gulf Coast in about three days...and the official forecast closely
follows this guidance.

[Howlin]

It's gonna be a LONG summer!

[dakine]

I see you on these threads often, you have good info...thanks

[nmh]

Thanks.

I don't believe there is good news coming from that situation but wouldn't want something like this to hamper it. We'll probably never know what happened or who did it.

[JellyJam]

Yikes! ... and we're getting hammered right now in Sarasota with a heavy thunderstorm.

[Howlin]

Anybody who is NOT on the Hurricane Ping List and wants on it, please Freepemail me, NautiNurse, Gabz, or varina davis!

[CedarDave]

Actually there's been an astonishing lack of natural disasters to hype at all for the last three months or so.....

Here's another one:

Oklahoma Records Its First Month With No Tornados

[AzaleaCity5691]

Does anyone know what this thing looks like on satelitte.

Because given the current water temperatures in the Gulf, it's possible this thing could become a Hurricane.


Remember, Hurricane Audrey in 1957, a borderline 3/4 storm that hit Acadiana hit at some point in June. I remember when Opal got into the Gulf, what was it, 10 years ago, we went to sleep thinking at worst, we were getting a Cat 2. When we woke up Wednesday morning, the old girl had become a Category 4, and by 10 in the morning, it had become the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Andrew.

It only took the 1935 Hurricane 5 days to change from minimal tropical storm to Category 5 killer. I don't think thats happening here, but, if this wave is unsually organized, it might not be a good sign.

[NautiNurse]

No kidding...this afternoon, my brand new Dietz hurricane lantern arrived...with extra wicks...