Posted on 05/07/2005 8:24:28 AM PDT by HairOfTheDog
1 - Sort It Out Trainer - Bob Baffert
2 - Andromeda's Hero Trainer - Nick Zito
3 - Sun King Trainer - Nick Zito
4 - Noble Causeway Trainer - Nick Zito
5 - Coin Silver Trainer - Todd Pletcher
6 - High Limit Trainer - Bobby Frankel
7 - Flower Alley Trainer - Todd Pletcher
8 - Greater Good Trainer - Bob Holthus
9 - Greeley's Galaxy Trainer - Warren Stute
10 - Giacomo Trainer - John Shirreffs
11 - High Fly Trainer - Nick Zito
12 - Afleet Alex Trainer - Tim Ritchey
13 - Spanish Chestnut Trainer - Patrick Biancone
14 - Wilko Trainer - Craig Dollase
15 - Bandini Trainer Todd Pletcher
16 - Bellamy Road Trainer - Nick Zito
17 - Don't Get Mad Trainer - Ron Ellis
18 - Closing Argument Trainer - Kiaran McLaughlin
19 - Going Wild Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
20 - Buzzards Bay Trainer - Jeff Mullins
Race coverage starts at 2 PM Pacific 5 PM Eastern on NBC
If it's too early for this live thread to be in breaking, I'll understand :~D
It's never too early.
Arrrgggghhh, I'm already second guessing my bet!
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| Bellamy Road (Timothy D. Easley / Associated Press) |
Record: 5 Starts, 4 wins.
Connections: Owned by George Steinbrenner, who's bred and raced thoroughbreds for years in the name of Kinsman Stable ($87,000 yearling purchase). Trained by Nick Zito after being developed as a 2-year-old by Michael Dickinson. Zito, who has won the Derby twice before (14-2-0-0), has four other potential starters.
Last Race: Jumped to the top of the contenders' list after he equaled Aqueduct's track record in the Wood Memorial while winning by 17 lengths. No other horse in the field has earned a Beyer speed figure close to Bellamy Road's Wood mark of 120.
It seems that Zito conjured up the Derby favorite from thin air this winter but the colt drew an offer of $1.5 million after his maiden win at Delaware Park last year. He was sent to Zito after absorbing his only loss, a seventh-place finish in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. "When you want to go down the Derby path, you need someone who's been there and done that," said Kinsman farm manager Edward Sexton. Sexton had exercised the colt as a yearling and advised Steinbrenner to buy him.
In His Favor: He's been lights out in his two races this year, not only routing his opposition but looking splendid in the process. Many observers conceded him the Derby after seeing his last speed figure, noting he could regress three lengths and still win. Not since Sunday Silence in 1989 has a horse been as impressive in its final prep.
Knocks Against: He's never defeated a top-rung opponent and his pedigree is not loaded with stamina. The margin in the Wood would have been less if the runner-up's saddle hadn't slipped. The big question is whether he'll relax if he can't get the lead, since his wins this year have been wire-to-wire.
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| Bandini (Ed Reinke / Associated Press) |
Record: 5 starts, 3 wins.
Connections: Owned by Michael Tabor, who won a previous Derby with Thunder Gulch, and partner Derrick Smith ($500,000 yearling purchase). Their Spanish Chestnut will also start. Conditioned by Todd Pletcher, last year's Eclipse Award-winning trainer, whose best finish from nine prior Derby starters was Invisible Ink's second place in 2001. Pletcher will have two other starters on Saturday as well.
Last Race: Showed good tactical speed to stalk a fast pace in the Blue Grass Stakes, then drew away from a solid field to win going away by six lengths.
His owners are players in the stallion business and this colt, from Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus' first crop and a strong female family, fits the bill. Pletcher mapped out Bandini's road to the Derby to match that of his sire. Both debuted late in their 2-year-old season and had five starts, the last two being stakes races. A foot bruise altered his schedule — he was supposed to run in the Florida Derby — but Pletcher said the shorter turnaround wouldn't hurt Bandini, who "has a great foundation and carries plenty of weight."
In His Favor: He's progressed smartly with every start this year and kept his good form from Florida to Kentucky. Pletcher seems certain to win a Derby or two in his career and no one would be surprised if this was his year.
Knocks Against: Has yet to post a speed figure high enough to convince some he's Derby caliber and his stalking style is not particularly suited to this race. Only one of the last 25 winners of the Blue Grass has won the Derby and, more often than not, Keeneland form doesn't transfer well to Churchill Downs.
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| Afleet Alex (Ed Reinke / Associated Press) |
Record: 9 starts, 6 wins.
Connections: Owned by the Cash Is King partnership headed by Charles Zacney ($75,000 2-year-old purchase). Trained by Tim Ritchey, a 30-year veteran who will be starting his first horse in the Derby.
Last Race: His Arkansas Derby was every bit as impressive as Bellamy Road's romp at the Wood, as he put eight lengths between himself and second-place Flower Alley while running the last three furlongs in 36 seconds.
Written off after a lung infection caused his poor run in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Alex — and Ritchey — silenced the doubters with his first two-turn win in the Arkansas Derby. They've been fighting for respect ever since Alex emerged from Delaware Park last summer to wow 'em at Saratoga. In a very unconventional move, Ritchey sends his colt to the track twice each morning — early for a jog, later for a gallop — because the highly intelligent horse prefers to be out of his stall as much as possible.
In His Favor: Other than when he was sick, the colt has never finished worse than second and is already proven at this level. His second dam was a Grade 1 winner around two turns, adding balance to his sire's speed influence. After being a non-player in the Derby outcome since 1983, the Arkansas Derby produced Roses winner Smarty Jones last year.
Knocks Against: Big effort following the illness may set him up for a regression, or "bounce," in the big dance. Derby novice Jeremy Rose regained the mount after John Velazquez begged off after the Rebel. Did Rose ask his horse to do too much in the late going of his last race?
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| High Fly (Ed Reinke / Associated Press) |
Record: 6 starts, 5 wins.
Connections: Bred and owned by Charlotte Weber's Live Oak Stud and another of Zito's five Derby starters. The Campbell Soup heiress transferred the horse to him following three winning races in four starts for Bill White.
Last Race: Took over when ready and captured a second-straight stakes for Zito with an efficient 1½-length score in the Florida Derby.
Both his parents excelled on turf but this colt was a main-track star from his first race. Following a trio of victories, he suffered his first and only loss in the Holy Bull Stakes after racing wide from the outside post. This resulted in the move to Zito — "We wanted someone with experience in the Derby," — a harsh punishment for White because of a jockey's miscalculation. Still, he's thrived in Zito's care. Not the most glamorous horse of the trainer's quintet, and with only a modest pedigree, if he doesn't win the Derby he's at least given Zito his first Florida Derby win.
In His Favor: As his jockey, Jerry Bailey, says, "All he does is win." He's never had a speed figure less than 94 and has enough early foot to get decent position near the lead on Derby Day. This year, horses coming from Gulfstream Park have done exceptionally well in their first start elsewhere.
Knocks Against: This will be his first start outside of Florida and Churchill Downs is only the third different track he's run on. He's consistent but the speed-figure gap between him and his fellow Florida-based horses has widened.
Here are four others that could crash the party:
Record: 4 starts, 3 wins.
Connections: Owned by Gary and Mary West, who started Dollar Bill in 2001 ($145,000 yearling purchase). One of seven probable Derby starters who have switched stables since beginning their racing careers, he's been in the Bobby Frankel (Derby record: 7-0-2-1) barn since winter.
Last Race: Pressed the pace in the Blue Grass and stayed on for second after being passed by Bandini. Frankel wanted him to have a tough race and got just what he was looking for.
In His Favor: He's a fresh horse with only four lifetime starts and that approach is in vogue these days. He is very eligible to take a big step forward from his last race, especially with the master, King Bobby, at the helm. Note well: The track announcer called his margin of defeat in the Blue Grass as only four lengths, not six.
Knocks Against: With only four lifetime starts and just two races this year, he's very light on seasoning. Another front-runner, he may be caught in a pace duel that will exhaust him.
Record: 6 starts, 2 wins.
Connections: Owned by My Meadowview Farm of Barnes & Noble Booksellers CEO Leonard Riggio ($1,150,000 yearling purchase). He's also a member of the Nick Zito barn.
Last Race: Chased High Fly home in the Florida Derby, after swinging five-wide at the head of the stretch, and earned a triple-digit speed figure.
In His Favor: By a sensational young stallion, Giant's Causeway, who's already sired a champion 2-year-old and an English Classic winner in his first crop. His female family, which includes Alabama Stakes winner Classy Cathy, is an outstanding source of stamina.
Knocks Against: Has yet to win a stakes race and may have been lost in the shuffle at Team Zito. Must catch up to the rest in a hurry.
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| Greeley's Galaxy (Timothy D. Easley / Associated Press) |
Record: 4 starts, 3 wins.
Connections: Owned by B. Wayne Hughes, founder of Public Storage Company race ($220,000 2-year-old purchase). Another of his colts, Don't Get Mad, also is eligible to start in the race. Trained by 83-year-old Warren Stute, whose only other Derby starter was Field Master (13th) in 1967.
Last Race: An absolutely effortless nine-length win in the Illinois Derby over a very ordinary field.
In His Favor: A true unknown quantity, he could sneak up on the race like War Emblem, who parlayed a similar effort in the 2002 Illinois Derby into Kentucky glory. His owner is putting up $200K for his supplemental nomination.
Knocks Against: Has never seen horses with this much ability. His pedigree is decidedly not that of a 10-furlong winner.
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| Wilko (JEFF HAYNES/AFP / Getty Images) |
Record: 14 starts, 3 wins.
Connections: Owned by Canadian native J. Paul Reddam, founder of online funding company DiTech (private purchase). Trained by Craig Dollase, who is making his Derby debut.
Last Race: Finished a close third in the Santa Anita Derby after failing to run past the longshot leaders in the stretch.
In His Favor: Still rounding into best form after a winter of physical problems. Pedigree says distance won't be a problem and he has already shown real determination and staying power when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year.
Knocks Against: Trainer expected more improvement that he showed in his last race. No BC Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby (0-for-22).
Coin Silver
Noble Causeway
Flower Alley
Buzzards Bay.
Don't see anything that can beat Bellamy Road. Plan to try him with Bandini, Sun King, Wilko, and Noble Causeway in some exactas. Who do you like today?
Don't see anything that can beat Bellamy Road. Plan to try him with Bandini, Sun King, Wilko, and Noble Causeway in some exactas. Who do you like today?
I don't have a favorite today yet. My favorite is usually an emotional response to the background stories about the horse, or the ownership, or the trainer.
My favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, is running a long shot today.
I'm going to go with Flower Alley, just because I like the name.
Red, white and blue blood:
Afleet Alex is this year's Derby working-class hero
Way back when, I used to make a tidy sum, by betting on the horses. OTB. (sigh) They don't have that in OH.
Well, I like Afleet Alex's choice of tack but I like the looks of High Fly.
Bellamy Road will win the Kentucky Derby but will be backing down the last furlong.
No triple crown winner this year.
Early Times - hmmmmm think i've got some in the liquor
cabinet...
now I need a mint julip recipe :o)
The Pletcher trainee would be the first horse since Exterminator in 1918 to win off just four career starts. He has improved every race, winning the Grade II Lane's End off a maiden race. His speed figures have improved each start, even when he was second by eight lengths in the Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers for the Derby
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