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Never, ever, take a public forum too seriously. It will come to no good.
Regroup.
Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
It was a joke rebuttel to the self-righteous. But if you want to get serious we all "do business with odious dictators to the detriment of their enslaved subjects" all the time without much worry. Have you never used Arabian oil or bought Chinese goods? Hmmm?
I regret your leaving. I remember the hiatus not too long ago when you were gone and your posts were missed.
I welcomed your insight into the British and Euro events.
best regards
Bert
See Post #429
bttt
In addition to my post on the other thread, I should clarify that I wish you'd stay!!
We need more folks like you on FR, MadIvan, not fewer..
Please reconsider, take some time off, come back refreshed.. :-)
Murder rates are still lower.
Well said thanks
I don't understand why the pro-Greer people are trolling MadIvan's threads..
Spiff if your ancestors were British, and you hate the British, it must make for some self-loathing eh?
Uh, sure. I've been here since 1998. Any difference in posting is because you had a previous login, and would be measured in a couple of months. But thanks for adding that pointles point.
When I asked why you took personal exception ("please show me any posts I've ever made that show I'm a Democrat") to a non-specific post ("some of them are Democrats") you refused to answer. Very strange.
And, like I said, that is just a rhetorical trick on your part - to attack the whole but deny you've attacked any of the parts - so you act all wronged when you're called on it.
I find it telling that you're the only person who chose to take me to task for stating that some on the Laura Bush thread were Democrats.
I happen to be concerned about those kind of attacks, seeing how rampant they have become on FR.
Perhaps you envision yourself as a paragon of fairness or reason or impartiality; but you were defending people who were attacking Laura Bush in some of the foulest ways imaginable
I was getting after your side for the level of vitriol that you were throwing at anyone who disagreed.
It defies reason to claim that they aren't here posting on this subject, and it defies reason to assume that they'd bash Laura as out-of-the-closet Democrats, for which they'd be laughed off the board.
Or, maybe some folks just feel that Laura was off-base. But I guess it's easier just to impunge the other side's motives.
They have to pretend to be conservatives and troll for agreement from the fringers
Did you bother looking up their posting history? Are you the arbiter of what is conservative on FR?
If you've outed a lot of trolls, it's hypocritical of you to take exception to others doing the same thing...
When I out a troll, it is because I have evidence on a specific poster. I don't make sweeping generalizations against those I disagree with.
Bum's me out that you're leaving, Ivan.
I've always been glad to read your posts, and have never found cause to disagree with anything you've said.
You British are our brothers in arms ... it's a most special bond we share, and it'll always be there.
I hope you find yourself a bit homesick someday, and return to FR.
Blessings upon you, my friend.
Your heart is in the right place, Howlin. I'll post here what I posted on another thread earlier today.
Anyway, the upshot is that the forum has become a very uncomfortable place for some very good people. ;-)
I often see folks around here quoting from and relying upon our Declaration of Indenpendence. We shouldn't forget that it was made longer than the one sentence it really only needed to be because of a felt need to demonstrate a "decent respect to the opinions of mankind." Why can't we just try harder to read and to respond to the posts of others in that same spirit? Why can't we try a bit harder to show a decent respect for the opinions of others? Why must it so often be viewed in such personal terms?
This is, after all, just a forum. ;-)
I don't think this thread drifted too far off topic, given that MadIvan indicated when he posted it that he was leaving because of the incivility of a few pinheads. But you are correct about many threads.
bump!
I think you're one of the best, Scenic. But I must disagree with the first sentence of your post. :-)
No, no -- you are right -- it didn't; given what MadIvan posted after posting the thread article feature. How he posted (article and personal post) was beautifully illustrative.
Where did I say I "hate" the British? Heck, I don't even dislike them. I don't even have to try hard to tolerate them, despite their smug air of superiority. When it comes to American and British relations, all we should have to say is "World War II" and the British should say "Thank you, what do you need us to do?" That is a debt which will not soon be repaid, unless you think that living under Hitler's thumb would have somehow been preferable.
Good on ya' chap. :)
I do hope you stay on. Obviously you are well-liked here, and you certainly add much to the forum.
I've seen the bitterness of some FR ex-pats up close, and it's not pretty. Most of them in fact turn out to not be Conservative at all, that's their dirty little secret. You are of course true to the cause, and so I do hope you reconsider. :)
I've seen some the FReepers you speak of, and I am astounded by their attitude, Irish Freepers and British FReepers are the best of FRiends on this site, and therefore can't understand why some American FReepers behave so bad to their British FRiends.
I think they are, roughly speaking, the same group of people that your good Friend, Happygal, refers to 'plastic Paddies' - who show complete ignorance about Sinn Fein/IRA, and what they stand for.
Britain is a great country, which has more than amply atoned for it's past mistakes, a country that extended the hand of friendship to my own, so much so that only a few 'Hiberno-fascists' still wallow in self pity and irrational hatred for your (still) great nation, while the rest of us don't give a flying damn, we get along, and we get along with our lives - because we realize we have a lot in common!
Ivan, please reconsider,
FRegards,
IT
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