Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
I have.
I see Britain as a great ally and remember these words: We shall not flag nor fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France and on the seas and oceans; we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air. We shall defend our island whatever the cost may be; we shall fight on beaches, landing grounds, in fields, in streets and on the hills. We shall never surrender and even if, which I do not for the moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, will carry on the struggle until in God's good time the New World with all its power and might, sets forth to the liberation and rescue of the Old.
Hi,
I have lurked and posted here for over 7 years and I have not seen what you have seen re: slams at Great Britain. Of course, I would not be as sensitive to such things as you would be.
In any event, there's tens of thousands of people who post here, and naturally there's going to be a few trolls, disruptors, provocateurs, Democrat operatives, and other rude scumbags.
My guess is that the vast, VAST majority of people around here are on the same page as you are.
Best regards, whatever you finally decide,
LH
Oh, heck, Ivan, I hate to see old-timers go. I joined about the same time you did, and I tend to lurk these days and not post much, for many of the same reasons you cite. Freepmail me and I'll put you on the mailing list for my column on The American Spectator. Regards, Larry
Sir Gawain wrote:
Can I have your stuff?
Best wishes brother. FR will be a dimmer place without you.
Mad, you are one of the few people on Free Republic who is actually missed and inquired about when you go missing for any length of time, whatever the reason. I have seen that repeatedly for as long as you and I have been here.
You are right, but it's not just about Great Britian, it's about EVERYTHING.
Please, please do not take a rational voice from our midst.
And to the rest of you: please notice how many people join in in saying that they are or have thought of leaving FR; it's time to SPEAK up about what is going on on this site -- don't stay silent any longer.
Thank you.
Ivan,
I think it's pretty clear that you have NUMEROUS people on here that enjoy and respect your posts.
C'mon... reconsider.
I will keep posting that I think folks need to help keep their own side in line. I will say it until the tone of the forum improves. I will call folks on my side to task when I see them acting in an uncivil manner.
Otherwise, things will just get worse. The mods cannot keep the forum in line unless posters help them.
I have alreay aplogised
Isn't that the truth? Lately it seems that any disagreement, however mild, turns into a protracted flame war.
Remember back during the Bosnia War when the majority of Freepers were against it and you tried to give your reasons in favor of it? You got mad then, and walked off for way too long. Please don't do it again because of a few stupid idiots. There will stupid idiots no matter where you go on the Internet.
BTW, my ancestry is all British and I would have loved to have been on any Brit bashing thread with you. We could have ripped them a new one, but it's like ships passing in the night, I wasn't online for all that.
My opinion of Tony Blair will always come down to one thing: Sept. 14, 2001, when he sat in a balcony during a joint session of Congress as President Bush gave his post 9-ll speech. Blair, like Churchill, understands the special relationship between the U.S. and Britain. I don't care if he's a Laborite leader, he's a tried and true friend in a fight as are his countrymen.
So don't go, or else I won't......won't .......won't........ visityournewwebsitewithallthecoolStarWarsstuffeventhoughthatwillkillme!!:)
Best regards as always, you hotheaded son of an Oliver Cromwell. Before you go, though, is it true that you're a direct decendent of Judge George Jeffreys? Or was it Guy Fawks? I dunno, someone very reliable told me that. :D
Bump to that.
I can't speak for every American but my family and I know the value of the Brits and their friendship with the US. I've taught my boys that if they must live outside the US, go to the UK.
God bless you.
I disagree. I've seen it work on threads before. It doesn't work overnight, but if enough posters do it, it helps keep the lid on flame wars - and if some folks persist in flaming, they tend to be the ones who are deliberately engaging in a flame war and not folks who are getting over-emotional on a given thread.
By ignoring people who think that you are out of line right now and are asking you to let it drop?
Do you see the irony here?
OK
I see that and thank you.
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