Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[Dan from Michigan]

One Scottish MP only for the Conservatives without Scotland the Tories would nearly always be in power

That just amazes me since the Scots and Orange Irish[as much as it pains me to say :) ] in the US are probably the most conservative ethnic groups outside of possibly the Dutch.

[RedRightReturn]

Ivan,

Sorry to see you leave! I've been lurking here for months and only recently started posting. In the total time I've been here, I always looked forward to your posts. Your unique insights and perceptions always seemed to cast our reality in a different, but necessary light.

All the Best,
Red

[armymarinemom]

I really don't want for you to leave. There are a few people on this board that buy into what the MSM feeds them. If the British people believed everything they read in the press Americans would be raving Nazi's. Heck even some of us in Blue states living in the US get lumped in with the libs that are running away from the State that we live in. I do know that a lot of us could do a better job sticking up for others that get lumped in with others. Please just take a break and hope that we all learn a lesson.

[Chunga]

You can stop preaching. I've been posting here longer than you and I've grown tired of you running interference for the Bush-bashers.

If you've outed a lot of trolls, it's hypocritical of you to take exception to others doing the same thing...and if I were critiqued as a closet Democrat I'd post evidence to the contrary.

I find it telling that you're the only person who chose to take me to task for stating that some on the Laura Bush thread were Democrats. When I asked why you took personal exception ("please show me any posts I've ever made that show I'm a Democrat") to a non-specific post ("some of them are Democrats") you refused to answer. Very strange.

Perhaps you envision yourself as a paragon of fairness or reason or impartiality; but you were defending people who were attacking Laura Bush in some of the foulest ways imaginable. If you're going to do that, you're actually my political enemy and helping to further the goals of the Democrat Party. The Democrats have been smiling through this entire Laura Bush episode, trying to foment conservative vitriol against her and her husband for her speech and using their lackeys in the press for that purpose. It defies reason to claim that they aren't here posting on this subject, and it defies reason to assume that they'd bash Laura as out-of-the-closet Democrats, for which they'd be laughed off the board.

They have to pretend to be conservatives and troll for agreement from the fringers. They're doing it, and they're either laughing at you or applauding your efforts to maintain their fiction.

[cloud8]

> If you think the attacks are bad against Britain you should see how these morons attack Japan on damn near every thread that mentions it. The words “irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals” apply even more so, as well as flat out racism.

Substitute "Massachusetts" for "Japan." My state has been a laughingstock for almost 40 years. I grin and bear it.

I agree that the infantile kneejerk responses posted recently have been over the line.

Heartfelt thanks to the Brits for their sacrifices in the war.

-Bill

[Mike Bates]

In the early 80s, I once had dinner with Congressman Larry McDonald. (He later died on KAL 007). Anyway, he told a story about a man who claimed he had seen a purple elephant just walk by. No matter what anyone said, the man would not be persuaded he hadn't seen that purple elephant. He was just too detached from reality to be convinced and it was a total waste of time to try to do so.

Sometimes we run into folks like that around here. There are better ways to spend our time.

Best of luck to you.

Michael M. Bates: My Side of the Swamp

[colorado tanker]

I'm an Anglophile and wish you would reconsider, Ivan. Your posts and insights are invariably accurate and interesting.

I have to agree with you about the level of civility on FR, however. If you think this is bad, you should lurk on one of the evo-crevo threads.

Well, if you do decide to leave, best wishes.

[add925]

In any group, there are those on the fringe. At FR, I have noticed a far smaller number of bigots/xenophobes that exist elsewhere.....DUmmies, for example.

However, conservatives need a tougher skin, just like the opposition has had for decades. Don't pull a Sean Hannity, take off and whine. Most of us FReepers love England....I was just there 2 months ago on business....Mmmmmm, Old Speckled Hen.

Running and ducking only empowers the enemy. Fight the left (or dork FReepers) with their own weapons....they're not used to that. Or simply plant them:

Sometimes you need to "lower yourself" (gasp) to verbally punch out the opposition.

p.s. Dork FReepers are Trolls in disguise.

[Spiff]

your stereotype of the Welsh Miner is laughable. So all Welshmen live down the mines?

Hey, buddy, my ancestors DID work in the mines and more than a few died in the mines. They came from Merthyr Tydfil.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

Cheers mate. I'll think of you when I down a pint of the good stuff.

[rogue yam]

Have you tried a Cuban Cigar recently or are you still banned by your government from having one?

Wow! You define "freedom" as the right to do business with odious dictators to the detriment of their enslaved subjects? Nice one!

[2Jedismom]

MadIvan, don't go. Take a break, maybe...but come back. You're one of my favorites too, here.

If I ever get to visit your country, I still intend to drop in for tea and Spotted Dick, whatever you do!

[his sidekick]

As a Conservative American, living in the U.K., I would appreciate it if you would stay. You are the second person I have come across who likes Maggie Thatcher (my husband being the first). I have always enjoyed reading your comments. This is my first U.K. election, and I have finally started to grasp how they are conducted - very, very different from the USA.

Reading your comments, as well as others from the U.K., has been enjoyable because I, as an American and yet living here, have come to see both sides of the coin.

So, as one more reader, I wish you wouldn't go either. You will be missed.

[Bella_Bru]

Don't leave. Why let this forum be overrrun with fringers? Stay on FR, please.

[Canard]

"I see that not only are you openly full of prejudice and bile, your stereotype of the Welsh Miner is laughable. So all Welshmen live down the mines? LOL"

I've lived in Wales for 4 years and never seen a coal miner. I'm sure they must be some around somewhere, mostly can't move for all the male voice choirs obviously.

Maybe a visit to the Land of your Fathers might be an opportunity to broaden your horizons a little Spiff?

[prairiebreeze]

I use the 'abuse' button a lot.

The abuse button is going to be seeing a LOT more of me as well. I've had it with those who are trying to bring this site down.

Ya hear that Dr. Dean and Dutiful DUmmies?

[jpl]

Also can you tell me any freedom you have that we don't?

This question wasn't addressed to me, but it happens to dovetail in pretty nicely with what you asked me earlier.

I have the freedom to keep a handgun in my home legally. The freedom, sadly, isn't universal throughout America, but it exists in the state I live in and most others.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that private ownership of handguns was made illegal in the U.K. about eight years ago or so. That's just one of those trends I've seen in post-Thatcher Britain that I don't much care for. It's one of the biggest reasons why crime there has skyrocketed recently.

[radiohead]

I don't know if I've ever posted in response to you, but I've read your posts with enthusiasm and enjoyment.

Sometimes it's not worth getting into an argument with some of the people on this board, it's like their life goal is to be disagreeable and evil, but on the whole, most FReepers are interesting, decent people who are looking for discussion and conversation, not argument.

Please reconsider and stay.

[baseballmom]

MadIvan, I'm getting very angry that some of the best of the FReepers are being run off this board.

After seeing all the absolutely over the top threads about our First Lady (said to be a whore now, dontcha know), I'm convinced that a small brigade of malcontents, sleeper cells if you will, is doing its best to disrupt the honest and lively discussions on FR.

The same thing happened on so many of the Terri Schiavo threads.

Well MadIvan, I'm going to hell, I guess, because I defended our Laura. And I will defend your country and your soldier's sacrifices in the War on Terror.

Thank God for Great Britain, Tony Blair, and the precious soldiers who have joined us in defeating the Taliban, and Saddam Hussein. There is more to do. I pray that Great Britain, and Tony Blair, and your brave soldiers will be there for us.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

Instead, there seems to be a troupe of disruptors who have brought bad manners from elsewhere on the web. And so many of these people are, shall we say, "evangelical".

That was a cheap shot without evidence.