Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[PhiKapMom]

You are right about that -- I finally pulled out and decided it wasn't worth getting upset about. Wish I had followed your lead and not gotten involved at all on either side.

[CGVet58]

MI - what can I say? your comments have always been a delight to read, and wish you wouldn't leave because of some dorfs who post here without thinking things through.

I'll share a bit with you; from my viewpoint here, it seems that the UK is going through some serious challenges now; challenges that need voices like yours to continually respond to them. Though some of those issues may be alarming to me, I've every faith that your country - which birthed the "rights of the englishman" and so many other tenets upon which we your cousins here base our own government on - will come out victorious. Nor is this an empty observation coming from a curious bystander looking through the window-glass - we've our own issues here in the US that we must face and defeat, and you know full well what those issues are, because your voice has been on the side of right in standing against them.

I wish you well and bid you peace; should you (as I sincerely hope...) decide to not depart the freep, I for one will be very glad for that choice. Whatever your decision, know that you have a fellow freedom lover and patriot here in yours truly,

Que Dios siempre te Bendiga, y que siempre te Guarde en la Palma de Su Mano Derecha.

CGVet58

(ps: freepmail to follow)

[jimfree]

You are a beacon of light here, please do reconsider.

Ivan, it's been good to know you. I don't quite understand. I have not been anti-Britain but rather anti-BBC, anti-Mayor of London, etc. Have others really been that bad? I'm sorry that I haven't seen it if it is so.

[Grampa Dave]

Ivan, if you can just ignore the haters on Free Republic. They wake up hating everybody, hate everybody all day and go to bed hating everyone. They aren't conservatives.

If you don't stay, thanks for your contributions, threads, pings and being our ally after 9/11.

Regards
Dave

[skeeter]

What do you expect from a bunch of under acheiving cubicle workers who are so dishonest that they prosecute their excuse for a real life from a keyboard on their boss's time?

*looking over shoulder*

[ocr1]

Sucks to see you go, always enjoyed your posts. Good luck to you and yours, friend.

[Spiff]

Secondly, and this is the best, you wouldn't exist without Britain.

We almost didn't exist BECAUSE OF Britain (see 1776 and 1812) but some brave souls were courageous enough to throw off British tyranny.

Also can you tell me any freedom you have that we don't?

From where do individuals in Britain obtain their rights? Are they inalienable? Are they enumerated?

Where you live, can you own and openly carry on your hip a firearm without even a license, a permit, or even government knowledge that you own and carry that weapon?

[cooper72]

Where in the British isles did your family come from?

[Proud Conservative2]

I am so sorry to see you go. I understand what you say about FR. The content of character has change a lot in the last couple of years. You will be missed.

I wish the best for you...

God Bless you and hold you safe.

[Always Right]

So, enough. It's been a good run of nearly 7 years. But it's time to walk away before I see a site which I have loved, laughed with and enjoyed greatly, degenerate any further into a propaganda outfit against my first, truest love, the country in which I live.

Hey MadIvan, hate to see you go. I always respected your views. Sorry if some make you feel unwelcomed. You are always welcomed back.

[Nam Vet]

Ivan, I do wish you would reconsider and stay. So many of us anxiously read your insight into the events on the 'other side of the pond'. Should you decide to leave, keep your name, password, registration etc in tact. You never know what a break from posting/reading might do for your outlook on the situation. If you leave, Godspeed. Any real Conservative understands patriotism.

Nam Vet

[Guenevere]

Ya know, Ivan, with all these great accolades, don't be embarrassed to say...

Oops, I've changed my mind!

We'll let you keep the accolades :))

[PLOM...NOT!]

MadIvan-I've enjoyed reading your posts from your side of the world. You are an intelligent contributor to this forum. I don't post alot but I do spend more time here than I really ought to. That being said, I have noticed the quality posts to this site have all but disappeared. It seems I would learn something new or look at something differently from what I had read here. It seems as though that insight has gone away and I'm concerned that maybe there has been an effort by the left to "take down" what was once a very influential website.
I understand what you're saying though and I wish you well.

[Lando Lincoln]

And to the rest of you: please notice how many people join in in saying that they are or have thought of leaving FR; it's time to SPEAK up about what is going on on this site -- don't stay silent any longer.

I agree completely. I'm not the sort to write an opus but I have withdrawn from FR substantially. I have never been big in discourse but I have always enjoyed posting interesting threads (at least, I think they have been) - 872 at this morning's count. I hope they have added some value to this forum. But, the discourse has become so uncivil, it seems. Many of us seek refuge at FR where we can exchange thoughts from people who are, at the same time, like-minded yet independent thinkers. Instead, there seems to be a troupe of disruptors who have brought bad manners from elsewhere on the web. And so many of these people are, shall we say, "evangelical". Seems at odds to me. Anyway, disagreement is fine ... being disagreeable isn't.

So, have I thought about leaving FR? Yes. And I still might. Simply because my precious "free" time can be better spent elsewhere.

Lando

[Tribune7]

I thought that the brotherhood as expressed on September 11th and during the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq, would cement the bond between our two countries.

What I think is occurring is that the success of FR is attracting bozos who just recently figured out how to use the web.

Like money, bad posters chase out the good.

You are right. I'm ashamed by some of the comments made here concerning the nations of foreign Freepers.

I sincerely hope you reconsider. Your posts were invaluable last night.

[cooper72]

Wales. And they were damned glad to get out of the coal mines to America where they could own their own land, prosper and be free. If they had not come over, I'd be living in a socialist mire like you.

I see that not only are you openly full of prejudice and bile, your stereotype of the Welsh Miner is laughable. So all Welshmen live down the mines? LOL

I have my own property and business and I fail to see the socialist dystopia you see. But then you are not to be taken seriously are you? Have you tried a Cuban Cigar recently or are you still banned by your government from having one?

[hollywood]

I always enjoy your analysis, clarity, and wit, Ivan. However, now that you'll be away from your PC (without FR, who needs a computer, right?), maybe you can hunt down some parts I need for my 70 MGB? Thanks, mate. ;>)

Cheerio,
hollywood

[Dan from Michigan]

Usually I never comment on opuses outside of a few oneliners, but this one is an exception. International conservatives bring a different perspective we need to see. I can't blame you for defending your country

When times are tough, and regardless of the press and other leftists, three countries almost always can be counted on to support one another. Britain, Australia, and America. That hasn't changed, regardless of the press, xenophobes, and leftists in general.

I hope you reconsider your opus. Take a break and grab a pint of Bass, and come back later. I'm sure the light will still be on for you.

[Alia]

I have also been studying the "problem(s)". It appears to be happening when "thread drift" occurs. Article is posted, and up for discussion. Little items enter into the debate; people begin taking sides on the "little" issue but not the topic specifically at hand. Those here for the fireworks playup those drifts; people who usually agree on much begin taking sides; then hurt feelings arise.

So, either the issue of "thread drift" gets addressed by the moderators OR posters begin self-policing; and or both simultaneously occur.

Often, when I pop into threads and follow them through -- I witness that childhood game of "playing telephone"; the original statement gets passed on down the line subject to sender/receiver communications' perceptions -- so that the original statement, is meaningless or jumbled when the last "listener" in the queue plays it out, aloud.

Like this thread: It has taken on a life of its own.

And with this post of mine, have I contributed to "thread drift".... by responding to MI's post and perhaps not addressing specifically how the US MSM has deliberately *misrepresented* PM Blair's win.