Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
(MadIvan says he's reconsidering...)
For he's a jolly good fellow,
for he's a jolly good fellow,
for he's a jolly good fellllllllooooooowwwwwwwww.....
Which nobody can deny!
Farewell my British friend, while I still remain, there is an evolving difference from the 97/98/99 crowd of freepers.
I didn't participate in the Territhon here. I thought it was nuts, personally.
That's a damn shame. I honestly can't think of a better ally than the United Kingdom.
Ivan...are you on crack? Don't leave bro...we need ya.
May I suggest one good technique to end a flame war? I have found that telling the other guy the exchange is over and then letting the other guy have the last word (a flamer will always add something personal and nasty and has to have the last word--you will never get the last word with a flamer and that's what they rely on) works almost every time. Then no matter how many times he tries to reignite the exchange, just ignore him. If it persists, report abuse and get him kicked off the forum.
This used to work in the old days of usenet where there were no moderators (except the part about reporting abuse). Compared to FR, usenet was a mess. Shunning is really effective. Also private email to good guys who have gotten sucked into a flame war suggesting that they just ignore the ass can help.
Disagreement is healthy. Personal attacks are not. Ultimately it is up to the members of the forum to police that. I use the 'abuse' button a lot.
Many see Great Britain and The United States of America on the slippery slope towards one world government. It makes it easy to bash either, as they see it as a hopeless issue. We have just begun to organize to reverse the trend. You can't undo nearly 100 years of socialist tendencies in the U.S.A. in just 7 years or 2 administrations. It going to take a lifetime of work and beyond. Our 2 great nations and the more recent transformations (coalition of the willing...sometimes minority groups inside the nation) are working to make human existence more spectacular. We need all of the freedom loving people on the planet that we can gather. We will prevail against an enemy that wants to make everyone equally miserable.
We need you MadIvan.
Good advice.
I'm so very sorry you've made this decision. I urge you to reconsider and give it another go.
FR is like a small village. Each village has a few idiots. Some ignore them, others argue with them and still other keep poking them in the eye with a stick.
If you can't ignore the idiots, perhaps it's best for your own sanity and sense of well being to go. That makes me sad. I've always enjoyed the insight you bring to your FRiends across the pond.
If you can't give it one more chance, then Peace to you, dear FRiend.
Nothing lamer than a Freeper who should know better putting up such a lame comment!
I don't post to you a lot, maybe it's because we don't "travel" on the same threads a lot.
But I need to tell you, please don't let a bunch of idiots run you off FR. we're not ALL like those!
So, don't go!
I vaguely remember when I used to have a real life.
Firstly, there is not a greater ally to the US and no other country except America has shed more blood in the War on Terror. But you know that it was just an immature point.
Secondly, and this is the best, you wouldn't exist without Britain.
Oh and lastly British subjects live outside the UK and have no right to live there, but British Citizens are those who do. (I bet you were ignorant of that). Also can you tell me any freedom you have that we don't?
Nothing like giving a textbook demonstration of the type of crap that makes him want to leave in the first place.
Bite your tongue. Only through spilling the blood of the British tyrants during the War for Independence were we able to become free. My forefathers fled the Isles to come to a free and prosperous country. America is the shining beacon on the hill upon which the world should set its course - including Britain. It is not the other way around. Britain may be Lady Thatcher's motherland, but it isn't mine.
Ivan,
Over the my years on FR, I've read many people saying they are leaving, in all honesty, I never really cared and many times thought good riddance. However your leaving has bothered me greatly. I have always enjoyed your posts, analysis and humor. I wish you would reconsider leaving us, as you would be greatly missed.
I fully understand the frustration you feel at the British bashing that does take place on FR. I can completely relate. My career is in Law Enforcement and have waded through more than my fair share of posts where members of FR take every opportunity to bash, accuse and make over the top ridiculous comments about the very people I work with on a daily basis. They do not care how often our LEO's put their lives on the line for others, the need to spew their anti-LEO feelings overweighs everything else.
Yes there are those who stand up for LEO's, just as there are many of us who stand up for Britian, yet at times it seems like the bashers are more vocal and higher in number. It becomes hard to see past the bashing and see just how much support there really is. Once again, I understand your frustration.
It is my hope you will take a break from FR for a while and then return to us. You are one member that would be greatly missed.
Brytani
I'm just vague.
Oh, that is BS...why let a bunch of idiots run you off? Just take some time off...
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