Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
There is a coterie of irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals who are trying to convince the good people of this board that in spite of all that Britain has done and all the gestures of friendship that we have shown, is just as bad an ally as say, France....
To my horror, I've also found that some of these miscreants were actually former friends of mine who have stabbed my country in the back."
It's actually been said Britain is "Just as bad an ally as say, France"?? Lol!
Whereas I do not pretend to know the context and nature of your beef, I'd like to remind you (as if you don't already know) that as a lot, we Yanks will tend to shoot from the hip before thinking at times.
Is it possible the referenced Freepers were merely temporarily blowing off steam? Or had you deemed their words and behavior irrepairable?
With that being said however, maybe it's a blessing in disguise -- the process of the "wheat separated from the chaff" isn't always a bad thing, is it?
Regardless of your unpleasant experience, there is still a nasty front at which a cultural and political battleline is being fought. Your leadership, and the friendship and fight of conservative Brits IS needed for the cause.
Take a holiday, quaff down a few, and we'll keep holding the fort until you re-charge and reconsider.
Cheers.
I watched those debates in the House of Commons very closely and I saw more genuine support coming from Tories than Labour. In fact, a coalition passed the bill not either Party. Tories in the debates had more of Blair's backside on Iraq then did some of his own Labour Party. Blair and Straw were pretty much out on the plank from a lot of Labour. Some of the women against the war were some of the more disagreeable people I have heard speak not to mention some of the men from Labour who were opposed. Did you watch the debates in the House of Commons?
Blair did drag his feet -- that's a fact and demanded we go back to the UN once again which caused the long delay that put us into a poor weather situation.
That's history!
I was shocked when I read of your leaving. I've posted very little in my years on FR, but have depended on FR for the best conservative insight into the news, and yes, I've noticed a change in the atmosphere here. Your posts, as others have said, have always made me stop and think and somtimes laugh out loud. I'll sorely miss your insight and wit. Please, consider starting your own blog (and let us know the address) so we can all still tune into your world view.
Ivan, I don't know what's happened to FR but I saw some of the more disgraceful comments made on threads yesterday about your wonderful country and was dismayed.
After having just waded through the garbage on threads about another matter, I just didn't have it in me to take on the ignorant on the thread you were on.
But most of us understand full well what a loyal and brave friend your country has been to the United States, and we mourn the loss of each of England's soldiers in the WOT, and I will mourn your absence here.
You have done good work here and we have appreciated so much your updates and explanations of how things work in England. Be well and maybe someday things will change back here and you will feel comfortable returning.
Ivan
Many here are heavily reliant on your involvement at FR, and always look forward to your posts. We hope you return very soon. Oftentimes, we see England through the lens of the same media that distort US opinion, and it is easy to assume that the majority of British are opposed to us. That can affect commentary and opinion. Also, there are a fair share of idiots on the boards.
Your comments and your involvement with FR are an important way to combat this element, and we hope to see you again soon.
I've never asked someone who's written an opus to reconsider before, but I will ask you, Ivan. Please reconsider. If I personally have attacked Britain, it's because well, it's a socialist country. The English are our blood brothers, and we owe your country a debt of gratitude for sticking by us. We owe you the honor of sticking by you.
Like those who are ready to ditch the Republican party now that we have made some gains, or ditch the war on terror now that we've rolled up a goodly percentage of the network, I say to you that we must press on. The conservatives are just beginning to be heard in Britain.
What a shame.
I can't say that I disagree with you. There are many here that are so hard right that anything even slightly left of them is derided as liberal and therefore evil.
Know that there are people here who know what the Brits have done. I see the sacrifice Tony Blair made.
If do indeed leave, I wish you well.
If you find a more moderate board, let me know.
Good luck, God Bless.
The fact that Labour got whacked is encouraging. Blair is that rarest of animals -- a liberal who has proven himself to be able to rise above politics like people of old. To wit, a Statesman. I don't know whether to be happy or sad that the rats can't produce one like him.
Much to the loss of everyone.
This is factually wrong. A majority of Labour MP's and a majority of MP's as a whole voted for the war.
Blair did drag his feet -- that's a fact and demanded we go back to the UN once again which caused the long delay that put us into a poor weather situation.
Considering Tony Blair harassed Clinton to attack Iraq and Bush before 9/11 that really is poor analysis.
Yes and please don't forget the lost UK soldiers who are not English either.
Please know that many of us have greatly appreciated your perspective, your insight, and your patriotism for your great country (certainly one of our few true allies in this mad, mad world we face today and definitely our staunchest friend).
The lights are always on at FR should you decide to sneak back 'home.' God bless you and keep you!
Tony Blair did NOT "drag his feet" because he went again to the UN. He did what he had to do to keep a consensus in his country so he could retain support for the US position, which he believed should be Britain's position.
You are totally misreading Mr. Blair on this.
Sorry to see you go. I have always appreciated your posts, and hope that you will return sometime in the future. I am still hoping the land of my fathers will return to a Thatcher like leader.
BTW
If you think the attacks are bad against Britain you should see how these morons attack Japan on damn near every thread that mentions it. The words “irrational, bigoted and downright slanderous individuals” apply even more so, as well as flat out racism.
It has permeated the entire forum on virtually any topic.
What's worse, it's obviously condoned.
Think how bad it would be if DU hadn't gotten more than their share.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
More and more, I hold my tongue and cancel some comments before hitting the post button. Hornet nests are best left alone. As with road rage, many people are taking out the frustrations of their miserable lives on anyone in sight.
May God bless England, America's best and most loyal friend.
That's rather a broad brush. I think Jim keeps things under control when they need it.
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