Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
This burns me up. Anyone who thinks Britain is anywhere NEAR the same as France can jump in a lake.
The Brits have been, and hopefully will remain our staunchest allies for the last 100-150 years. When all the rest of the world was belittling President Bush, PM Blair stepped up and stood next to him. I have emailed him numerous times voicing my support, and I have fought others on these threads who belittle England and all the other countries who are supporting the War on Terror and the Iraq War, through any means.
People forget Britains have lost their lives, and it really proves the ugly American theory.
I hope you reconsider, but understand if you don't.
Except for me, remember? I'm the one who doesn't want my next door neighbor to own an UZI, a sin against conservatism akin to worshiping Hillary, so I've been told. Repeatedly.
Rubbish -- all those vanities during the deal with Terri should have been pulled -- never saw so many in my life or saw so much venom if you dared not agree with some people on here.
The attacks are way over the top and come from really old posters who have risen from the ashes like the Phoenix or from the Class of 2004! I have been observing and posting little and frankly was shocked when I returned from Maine after being at my daughter's to read the long threads on the Press Banquet which is all about satire and roasting whoever is President. Civility was not the name of the game and has not been for sometime. I am having a hard time figuring out some of these 2004 posters to know if they are here pretending to be conservatives or are just flat out rude. The old timers I know are rude as some of them have been rude since I have been on here.
We remember with heartfelt fondness many of your posts, and for your unwavering support of our great republic. Unfortunately, we have our liberals here, many disguised as conservatives, that have gathered here to have the exact effect evidenced by your forthcoming departure.
You will be missed, and we will never forget.
u joined WWI 3 years after it started
Ivan I'm glad to read you are reconsidering. I for one intend to be part of the answer and effort to take this forum back from the varmints and pukes who've infiltrated it.
Y'all who fit this description and are lurking and reading out there can consider it a heads up. Diminish this site, drag it down, post outside the rules of the forum and outside of common decency and courtesy and you WILL be reported. You WILL be turned in and your screen name WILL be listed.
I've had it with the devolvement that's gone on here and it's pretty darned clear it's a coordinated planned effort.
I agree with you on a disagreeable aura on here. It is terrible and frankly I am on the edge of becoming totally fed up and why I post very little until something like the election in Britain comes along.
Never say never. You'll be back!
True enough. Stay right there and give us a few minutes to get some firewood and charcoal starter!
Just kidding. Folks here need to realize that there are degrees of disagreement, and minor differences in opinion should be handled differently than complete disagreement - or else you end up without any political allies.
1. 70% of the UK vote went to parties that voted for war in Iraq. That is not a bare majority, nor was the vote for war. What more do you want?
2. Why would Britons want an American Republican Party? What within the Republican Party are we so missing?
Thanks! I saw so many rosette colors last night I had a hard time figuring out who was who. Sounds like the Labour Party has pulled right somewhat and the Liberals Dems gone left.
WOO-HOO!!
But... Please don't leaving thinking we all think ill of England. Many do, in fact respect and admire the stand Britain has made and are especially thankful for Mr. Blair's support.
I have RightGoth's book marked and visit there regularly.
Cheers,
Lloyd
Everyone thinks they can quit smoking freeping.
Stop it.
I agree with everything you have had to say! It is OUT OF CONTROL!
The first time I noticed you was last night when I appreciated your insights. I hope you reconsider.
One of the downsides of the fast anonymous chat board medium is that people frequently use it to say things they'd never say face to face--and, of course, that attracts a lot of disagreeable, stupid idiots.
Stay. If you go, you will be missed.
Ivan, if you choose to leave, I will wish you well. My ties to Merry Olde...are stronger than most here on the board. My father emigrated to this country right after WWII, and shortly thereafter, became a citizen.
I have always loved Britain, and her people. I have been saddened to see her slide down that socialist,liberal PC slope in the post Thatcher years. I pray that someday soon, the people of Britain will rise up & slap down the PC politicos that oppress & deprive them.
Personally, I hope you stay, even if in Lurker mode. Go well, if you must go. And should you ever choose to leave Merry Olde...you'd likely find a better climate (literally & figuratively) in Texas. ;)
--Vic303
Well, I have quit posting much, but I have always enjoyed your analysis. Having lived overseas, I appreciate the importance of having someone in country to get the real news and response.
Anyway, I am sorry a few bad eggs spoiled the whole place for you. The blood of your countrymen has been spilled for the cause of freedom, and I salute thier sacrifice. May God bless you all for your support.
I have just returned from a hiatus -- and no one missed me, AFAIK. '-)
Didn't make a fuss about "leaving"...I simply did other things that I love (archaeological and historical research) instead of frequenting FR. Perhaps you, also, will enjoy FR more after such a rest...
Unfortunately, the thoughtless dingbats were still here, (or a new crop had infiltrated) when I returned, but several months of distance seems to make their presence easier to bear. It's certainly worth a try!
Whatever your choice, I wish you (and the land of my forefathers) the very best. Having said that, this old Texan will be hoping to see "MadIvan" back here again in the future...
All the best!
TXnMA
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