Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Goodbye to Ivan ping...
Say it ain't so Joe
Dear Ivan,
It's not your fault that the Conservative party put up a loser. It looks as if Howard and Blair are both going to leave the scene. We can only hope that the Conservatives finally get their act together and find a leader with principles and conviction.
Perhaps too many Freepers confuse the English press and politicians with the English people. But if there is any possibility of keeping the Special Relationship alive, or in cold storage if necessary, we all have to work hard to do it. The E.U. will inevitably fail, and England and America will continue to be natural allies. The great majority of Freepers understand that.
It's tough times for British conservatives, but sooner or later (hopefully sooner) reality will strike, as it did when Maggie Thatcher swept into power in response to extreme hybris and unpopular strikes on the part of Labour. The Conservatives need to be ready to seize the opportunity. They have now booted it away twice, but maybe they will have learned a lesson this time. Opposing the war, playing on anti-American sentiment, and supporting the EU was stupid of Howard, who has now paid the price, but maybe they will learn yet.
Take a vacation and come back when you're in a more hopeful mood.
It has been a pleasure to read your posts over the years. Sorry to see you go. Best wishes to you and the UK.
I'll miss your posts, Ivan. Happy trails.
As a Canucklehead, I share some of your distress over attacks on my own country. Some folks can't resist taking cheap shots at 'outsiders', however they may be defined.
Ivan, yours are some of the most worthwhile threads and comments here - stick around!
And get your teeth fixed, limey! ;^)
FR seems to run in cycles. Life has its own cycles too. I was off FR for over a year because I was simply too involved in other things to take the time. If other adventures take you, so be it.
But don't let the b*st*rds do this to you. Your viewpoint from "across the pond" is too valuable to us. You -- as a member-- are far more valued than the cur dogs snipping at your heels.
Besides, where else could I hear of retributions like "put his head down a latrine that hasn't been cleaned since the Punic Wars."
Please don't leave,
Axel
I have been here since early 1999 and feel the same way.
I was going to get up this morning and set a few folks straight on here about the British elections and the fact that Blair was NOT elected nationwide but only won his seat. Some Freepers cannot get it through their head that British Parliament is not like our Congress -- obviously they have paid "zero" attention to what you have had to say as they blindly went on saying that the election in Britain was about Iraq and Blair had to win. What part of the fact Blair is a member of Labour that did not support the war did they not understand or the fact that Labour seems to be in love with the EU concept? I quit the thread last night because I was totally irritated.
Tony Blair is NO Winston Churchill and I get mad everytime I see that written here. Blair dragged his feet on Iraq and made us go back to the UN. Who knows what Saddam did in the time Blair stalled which cost our going in not to mention weather that cause some accidents and was extremely hard on our men and equipment. Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees mentality.
Am tired of what I am seeing on here and some of the comments I saw on the Live Election thread last night. Don't understand what has happened on here over the last 18 months, but I don't like it. Most nights it is not even worth my posting as I disagree with so many posters especially posters that have signed on in the last 18 months or ones that are older sign-ups posting again after an absence.
You have been one of the brightest and most intelligent people on here and have learned so much about Britain where a good portion of my family came from years ago. My Dad's best friend and his first cousin married an English girl who has been a gem in our family with their two children and now their grandchildren. She lived in Walton on Naze and now in Frinton on Sea in Essex and she brought into our Family that same wit I see from you.
Please take care and stop by ever so often -- we need a reunion that is if we are still here. Don't know how much more I am going to take either.
As you see many of us at FreeRepublic will miss your posts. You give us straight first hand information from Britain.
If you must take a break, please remember to come back and visit now and again.
Thanks Ivan.
Labour Party did support the war in Iraq. If they didn't it would never have passed through Parliament.
As for the EU the Labour Party has it's divisions on the EU too.
Blair dragged his feet on Iraq and made us go back to the UN.
Blair has many faults but not supporting America in Iraq is certainly not one of them. In fact to say otherwise is insane political analysis.
Well spoken. I've often disagreed with your postings, but the standards meant that I had little to attack them for and I had to reconsider on at least 1 occasion.
Free Repubic will be lessened by your passing.
Howard didn't oppose the Iraq war, he just criticised the way Blair presented the intelligence to justify the war at the time. Nor has Howard used anti-American sentiment, if anyone has been guilty of doing that it is the Liberal Democrat party. As for supporting the EU, that is open to debate too, since Howard was against adopting the Euro and signing the European Constitution.
Smart people know that the UK is our good friend. Just ignore the uninformed, the clowns. Your voice is needed here Ivan.
Every statement you said there was completely wrong and in fact the opposite was true. Quite unbelievable.
I am with you on not posting much on here anymore. There is something really wrong and has been for sometime that has caused all the longtime posters getting fed up. Vanities by new posters should be taken down instead of allowed to stand.
New posters come on here and start taking after Freepers right and left like they own the place. When most of us came on we posted little until we saw the lay of the land -- not so anymore -- have seen articles posted from sites we made fun of but now these fairly new posters put up the articles and start flame wars getting mad at the older posters if they dare disagree with them.
I am right on the edge of calling it quits. Don't like what I have seen for the last 18 months and it is not getting better. When Freepers like Mad Ivan are leaving, have to ask myself why I am still here.
Take a breather, and come back after a while. We can't afford to lose you.
This is a rarity for me. My usual response to an opus is "don't let the door hit you on the way out" but your contributions actually improve the content and analysis on this board, so I hope your absense is only temporary.
Ivan:
I can't disagree more. What has in fact happened is that with FR's popularity we're getting more people who are here specifically for the purpose of disrupting FR and driving the good people away.
The complete dweebs who post illiterate rants are easy to zot. The ones who use a twisted 'conservative' viewpoint in order to cause trouble are not.
If the good people go, the DUmmies win. Please don't fall prey to them.
Thanks and be seeing you,
6
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