Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Don't take it so serious. I personally have been condemned to hell about 100X by a few loons on this site because of my more "moderate-liberal" views on things. This is an internet site and with that you are going to get all kinds. I wish you would reconsider because I always enjoyed reading your witty comments. The vast majority are with you and your country 100,000%. In fact I live in England for 4yrs(Cockermouth; Lake District)and couldn't have had a better time(eventhough, i was only 9mo old)hehe. Anyway , have pint and all will be well.
So tell me - do you think impunging someone's marriage is in line with civility on an internet forum?
You guys are not alone in your growing distaste for what now passes as lucid punditry here. I post less and less (not that that would bother anybody) and find that I even check things out less and less. There are so many real issues of concern to us that are totally or virtually ignored here (Islamic Piracy in SE Asia, South American Marxism, Sub-Continent politics, etc..) while there never seems to be an end to the supply of Enquirer-Star pap. And when a serious issue does slip in it dies a quick lonely death. I think the long thread about Hannity having that idiot run-away-bride's idiot fiance on for an entire hour pretty much sums up what I mean.
I never forget, or will, Britain's solidarity with the US in this time. I haven't; nor will I. I understand what is going on in Britain. And the forces which Britain must contend. Britain has my hand. Sorry to hear of you signing off.
Please don't let a few ruin it!!
Sometimes,any one of us, I'm sure, have thought about 'going away'...just disappearing....
..but there is much good to be found here, there are lots of good souls, and you're one of them.
Please stay....
Sure, every now and then the 'squeaky wheels' get unbearably loud. But they always settle back down when they are ignored.
I wish you wouldn't leave. You're one of the best posters on this site. I've never seen you post an uninteresting article. If you insist on leaving, you will be missed.
I do know how you feel. I'm from California, and there are plenty of California-bashers on this site, too. There are also baby boomer bashers, and women bashers. There are certain threads, certain topics I've just learned to stay away from, to not even click on. There are lots of knuckleheads on this site, unfortunately. But I hope you'll decide to stay anyway, for the sake of the good people who are here. If not, good luck to you, and thanks for the great posts!
Then obey your own advice, and leave it there.
God speed and fair thy well, friend.
TXBSAFH
MadIvan, rise above the idiots and continue to contribute. I for one simply laugh at those who try to incite a discussion by being off the wall. In fact, I rarely post any more, because while I like to read the news, I simply don't care what somebody from Paduca thinks about it.
I will miss your posts. Best of luck.
ATTACK? I am simply stating that a way to improve civility is to demand it of your own side. That's an ATTACK? After you impunged my marriage, you call that an ATTACK? Sheeez - you're part of the problem, not part of the solution.
The hardcore Bushbots are losing their grip on forum control and they can't handle it. It's pretty funny to watch actually. Good riddance to the blind lemmings I say (not directed at Ivan).
Such is the arrogance and pride of many a fringer, snugs. Ignorance and arrogance are a very bad combination.
I've read a number of "farewells to FR" and have never attempted to change anyone's mind. I make an exception to that with you.
I apologise if I have upset or you feel I am contributing to the problems that Mad Ivan is talking about by my comments to dirtboy but I felt compiled to defend a gracious Christain lady in Ohio W Fan
Here's another vote hoping you'll stay.
You're eloping with Classy Green Eyed Blonde, aren't you?
Well, Ivan, it could have been worse. You could have been a patriotic Frenchman on this board.
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