Marburg Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 4, 2005 | Vanity

[Judith Anne]

Welcome to the Marburg Surveillance Project.

This thread will be used for all of the latest Marburg Outbreak News and comments. This is the place to post all comments about the Marburg outbreak, all articles and links to articles about the Marburg outbreak.

We're going to use just one thread instead of having to go from article to article as we have in the past. We'll use this thread as long as we can.

[Boundless]

> Please post your Marburg threads links ...

Here are links to CDC and WHO on the outbreak:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/dispages/marburg.htm

The only thing that's changed recently at either site, and
not yet discussed on FR, might be the CDC guidance for
aircrews:
http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/marburghf/marburg_airlines_2005.htm

[I'll be your Huckleberry]

EBH & Judith Anne

I saved the early posts when MA broke the story on FR. Hope this helps





March 30

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1374242/posts
 
Disease fears spread in Africa

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/30/2005 5:34:10 PM PST · 21 replies · 545+ views

March 29

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1372953/posts
 
Marburg epidemic spreading in Angola (Largest outbreak ever recorded, no reports of survivors)
 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/29/2005 5:13:23 AM PST · 23 replies · 1,118+ views
 
March 28

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1372177/posts
 
Deadly virus spreads to Luanda (Cabinda quarantine)

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On Bloggers & Personal 03/28/2005 4:32:16 AM PST · 13 replies · 131+ views

March 27

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1372047/posts
 
Concern as virus similar to Ebola spreads in Angola(Death Rate Close to 100%)

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/27/2005 8:21:50 PM PST · 16 replies · 527+ views

March 27 

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1371719/posts

Ebola-like virus prompts warning (Marburg Case Fatality Rate of 93% Exceeds Ebola Virus)

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/27/2005 6:25:54 AM PST · 36 replies · 1,092+ views

March 26

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1371173/posts
 
ANGOLA VIRUS SPREADING (Marburg Haemorrhagic Fever) -appeals for help, another nurse dies

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/26/2005 6:46:06 PM PST · 49 replies · 1,177+ views

March 26

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1371173/posts
 
Death toll from an Ebola-like fever in Angola rises to 112 (seventh health care worker dies)


 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/26/2005 4:57:23 AM PST · 3 replies · 316+ views

March 25th

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1370440/posts
 
Ebola-like virus spreads in Angola (spreads to the capital-5 nurses dead)

 Posted by Mother Abigail
On News/Activism 03/25/2005 5:03:25 AM PST · 10 replies · 332+ views

[Kelly_2000]

Hi kawana,

Confirming that 90% death rate is observable. We need to confirm the mortality rate (derived from cases where patients received clinical care) this will give an early indication of virulence of this strain. Which due to the sheer numbers involved in this outbreak suggests it is different form previous strains.

[Gamecock]

Not quite what you are looking for, but here is the virus between two hepatic cells:

[2ndreconmarine]

Judith Anne,

Great idea, great thread.

That reference posting by EBH is great too. All the relevant information in one place

[2ndreconmarine]

We need to confirm the mortality rate (derived from cases where patients received clinical care)

Already done.

The mortality rate (defined as outcomes rather than a snapshot of statistics) is essentially 100%. That is, only 1 person of 255 has survived to date. All others have died within 10 days. Existing active cases simply have not died yet.

We have confirmed this by monitoring the reports over the last 6 weeks. There has only been the one exception.

[null and void]

That is, only 1 person of 255 has survived to date.

Curiously we know nothing about the survivor, male? female? young? old? African? European? butcher, baker, candlestick maker?

Nothing.

Except we are assured there is a survivor.

Color me skeptical...

[EternalHope]

Thanks, Judith Anne!

[united1000]

You have her up! Good job Judith Anne

[dc-zoo]

Thanks for a great thread Judith Anne. This really helps.

[Kelly_2000]

"The mortality rate (defined as outcomes rather than a snapshot of statistics) is essentially 100%. That is, only 1 person of 255 has survived to date. All others have died within 10 days. Existing active cases simply have not died yet. We have confirmed this by monitoring the reports over the last 6 weeks. There has only been the one exception."

Good God do you understand what that means? even Ebola Zaire is not that virulent. Please I have to see this with my own eyes do you have a source for those figures? I want to present them to my colleague in a few hours time, when I meet him for lunch.

[null and void]

Good God do you understand what that means?

Yes we do.

[Kelly_2000]

As a last are there also detailed statistics available concerning the patients and when they where admitted? asymptomatic? or symtomatic etc., Please advise

[Kelly_2000]

this is stunning , as an aside on your profile I saw:

"Addendum I'm no longer a Card Carrying Libertarian. ",

I was also a one time libertarian

[null and void]

9/11 changed us all...

[Kelly_2000]

9/11 yes....(and the LF site cured me, exposure to some of those people was a splash of cold water)

[Myrddin]

The two disturbing features of this virus are the extended incubation period during which time the patient is infectious AND the apparent 100% mortality. Contact tracing is going to be very difficult.

[Kelly_2000]

For me the most disturbing thing, is why the patients recieving clinical care are not recovering 1 in 4 of them should be doing just that.

[tdewey10]

MSF Q&A on Mortality:

This outbreak seems to be much more lethal than past cases of Marburg.

It is very surprising. We will have to answer this question. It is possible that it has appeared very lethal because we have only had records of cases in a terminal stage and mainly among young children who are more vulnerable. Now that MSF team has reorganized the Uige isolation unit, it will allow the treatment of infected people in an early stage. The percentage of fatality could then hopefully decrease, although the case definition does influence the results

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/publications/voices/2005/angola_4-2005.shtml

If you search the web you'll find the comment about the 1 released patient. Apologies, but don't have much time at work to look for it. There is only one official press release noting that 1 person survived. There could, of course, be other survivors that were not mentioned in the released--but that seems unlikely.

[Kelly_2000]

"it will allow the treatment of infected people in an early stage. The percentage of fatality could then hopefully decrease, although the case definition does influence the results "

Ah yes thank you for this post, it seems that the measurements are not yet made. The corect metric is always a factor in determining virulence and mortality. This was precisely my point when i asked this question. i pray for the sake of those people that we see a drop in fatalities as a result.