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To: 2ndreconmarine
"The mortality rate (defined as outcomes rather than a snapshot of statistics) is essentially 100%. That is, only 1 person of 255 has survived to date. All others have died within 10 days. Existing active cases simply have not died yet. We have confirmed this by monitoring the reports over the last 6 weeks. There has only been the one exception."

Good God do you understand what that means? even Ebola Zaire is not that virulent. Please I have to see this with my own eyes do you have a source for those figures? I want to present them to my colleague in a few hours time, when I meet him for lunch.

31 posted on 05/04/2005 8:22:05 AM PDT by Kelly_2000
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To: Kelly_2000
Good God do you understand what that means?

Yes we do.

32 posted on 05/04/2005 9:08:46 AM PDT by null and void (...that no man, rich or poor, free or bond, shall buy or sell, save he that has the chip...)
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To: Kelly_2000
The two disturbing features of this virus are the extended incubation period during which time the patient is infectious AND the apparent 100% mortality. Contact tracing is going to be very difficult.
37 posted on 05/04/2005 9:47:41 AM PDT by Myrddin
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To: Kelly_2000

MSF Q&A on Mortality:

This outbreak seems to be much more lethal than past cases of Marburg.

It is very surprising. We will have to answer this question. It is possible that it has appeared very lethal because we have only had records of cases in a terminal stage and mainly among young children who are more vulnerable. Now that MSF team has reorganized the Uige isolation unit, it will allow the treatment of infected people in an early stage. The percentage of fatality could then hopefully decrease, although the case definition does influence the results

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/publications/voices/2005/angola_4-2005.shtml

If you search the web you'll find the comment about the 1 released patient. Apologies, but don't have much time at work to look for it. There is only one official press release noting that 1 person survived. There could, of course, be other survivors that were not mentioned in the released--but that seems unlikely.


39 posted on 05/04/2005 9:59:25 AM PDT by tdewey10 (End abortion now.)
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To: Kelly_2000
Good God do you understand what that means? even Ebola Zaire is not that virulent. Please I have to see this with my own eyes do you have a source for those figures?

Yeah, kind of gets your attention, doesn't it??

We do not have access to raw data on these threads, because we only can find the "reported" data from the WHO and the Angolan Health Ministry. They report only summary data.

Therefore, I cannot provide the raw data (listing by individual patient and outcome) that you require. I apologize.

The details of this mortality (i.e. 100% except for 1 case) was determined from the summary data. Several of the reports indicated that the survival rate was zero. The historical listing by EBH lists the threads, but I do not remember specifically where the reports are. However, I note that in this community (FReepers discussing Marburg), we had inferred this quite some time ago. Indeed, I was directed toward a listing of the standard epidemiological equations, and was able to simplify and re-derive them because of the 100% mortality boundary condition.

44 posted on 05/04/2005 10:57:15 AM PDT by 2ndreconmarine
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To: Kelly_2000

Any word from your CDC friend?


160 posted on 05/05/2005 8:14:15 AM PDT by tdewey10 (End abortion now.)
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