Posted on 04/12/2005 9:00:58 PM PDT by CHARLITE
Will the 21st century be another "American Century" or will it be the first "Asian Century"? A peaceful - for now - struggle has been joined.
For the past few weeks Americans have been focused on news from the Vatican. And for the past few years the bulk of "foreign news" has concerned the Middle East. But in the Far East three huge fuses are burning.
First, the prime minister of China, Wen Jiabao, traveled to India and declared that the two countries would be the "two pagodas" of economic might in the coming hundred years - the "Asian Century," Wen predicted.
The likely next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, has been a vocal proponent of "regime change." So what might the North Koreans do in response? Japan's Kyodo news service says a top North Korean official declared that his country could strike America not only directly, but also indirectly: "The United States should consider the danger that we could transfer nuclear weapons to terrorists."
So what can the United States do against such threats? Not much, it seems. The only country with influence on North Korea seems to be China, and yet the Chinese say that they can't help - even as Beijing protects North Korea against American military pre-emption.
Thus the three wheels: First, China gets closer to India, as the two nations seek a New Asian Order. Second, China grows more hostile to the United States and Japan. Third, China bolsters nuke-crazy North Korea.
Those are three fuses burning across the Pacific, whether we like it or not - whether we know it or not.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
"instead of expressing concern for America and American citizens, and their welfare and well-being it expresses pleasure over the well being of other nations and other peoples"
Nothing bizarre about this. Wellbeing of other countries does not mean decline of the US. This is not a zero sum game. Like the example I gave. Same countries where jobs are outsourced are places where more american products are bought.
"what you are doing is consigning America to the dust heap of history by saying that it is acceptable that there be no middle class in America."
I never said that. The middle class is not going anywhere. New jobs are created every minute and will employ americans quite nicely. I have faith in the US economy.
"DON"T CARE ABOUT US EITHER"
I am not sure about that. In fact in this day and age the world economy is so interlinked that everyone should care about each other. Pain felt in one part of the world could rapidly affect other parts for e.g the Asian currency crisis of 1998 was one such event. I think asian countries know only too well how much they depend on the US economy.
"allowing so many products and products of a vital nature to be made abroad, even in countries that are ideologically, sworn enemies of the United States, i.e., CHINA. "
Capitalism ensures that the mutual dependancy between countries will result in peace. The chinese may make noise about being antagonistic but they depend more on the US economy than anyone else. In other words there is very little they could do to hurt US interests. I dont believe US is SOLD OUT as you put it.
"it is time to look at these trade deficits and look where these jobs have gone"
The cause of the trade deficit is indeed worth examination. The American propensity to consume is very high compared to other countries. The avg consumer saves almost nothing despite the fact that the percapita income of americans is one of the HIGHEST in the world. Due to this consumption is too high as a proportion of income and results in huge imports. Whereas in other countries people tend to save something and have a lower propensity to consume and dont get so indebted. This is the main reason why the trade deficit exists. So again its not due to external forces but just bad habit of the consumer encouraged by easy availability of credit which leads to big indebtedness. The consumer needs to change their habitual indebtedness and go back to good old values of thrift & saving a buck or 2 and the trade deficits will be taken care of.
One thing, both India and China have HUGE populations. This is both good and bad. Imagine if the countries had to pay welfare and medicaid to the poor in these countries?
Spring 2001.
All you really have to do is look at the way people live in the US and in China. Talk about PPP, does that mean that your average Chinese peasant (#2 PPP behind the US by some forms of measurement) can go down to the local bank and float a loan for a new American, Japanese, European or South Korean made car? No. He can't even afford a Chinese made car. Per capita income is not high enough for that.
Average Chinese peasant have a cell phone? Maybe. A lot cheaper than a car. Is the average Chinese peasant able to float a loan for a nice little power boat for the fambly? No. Not a big enough mass market for luxury goods in China.
China, with a population of 1 billion, has blown past Italy (pop. what? 50 million?) to become the sixth largest economy in the world. So what does that get the average Wang? He's still working 14 hours a day in the booming agricultural industry, just like 50% of his countrymen. Those who aren't permanently out of work and transient that is.
Both China and India have a loooong way to go to overcome their built-in handicaps. And there is no assurance that their recent economic performance will continue for 'generations to come'. It's actually pretty doubtful.
Asian century? I still don't think so.
Think "Saturation" too.
1. US - 10.9 trillion
6. Italy - 1.47 trillion
7. China - 1.41 trillion
12. India - 0.60 trillion
US leads by at least 10 to 1. Even the Chinese economists don't think they're going to catch up this century.
Rome wasnt built in a day.. neither was america. These same arguments were made by europeans about the US once upon a time. You are right that the avg peasant in china cannot afford much but we are talking about the future. The enormous economic growth taking place there is what is growing the car market by leaps and bounds. Just look at how fast the car market is growing there. Its just a matter of time when even peasants will be able to afford a middle class lifestyle. But by then the chinese economy will be the largest in the world.
They may have a long way to go before all of their billion citizens enjoy a decent quality of lifebut even if a 1/3 do so in the next decade.. that makes them on par with the US.
These figures dont explain reality because they are based on severely depressed currencies of Asia. The currency revaluation going on right now where the US$ is falling will continue and will increase the purchasing power of Asian countries enormously. Thus ppp model is a better indicator.
Same crap I heard in the 80's .
What a thumping good post, evilthatmendo. You should actually expand just a bit on this posted reply, and submit it for publication at any number of fine web journals. You're an excellent writer, and you certainly have a thorough grasp of your factual material. Muslims do not integrate into other societies into which they insert themselves because their "bible" - the Koran - specifically forbids it. Worse, they are commanded to "kill the infidel wherever you find him!" - Not exactly an incentive or directive toward democratic assimilation.
The foundation of Islam is INTOLERANCE!
Char
Let's do the math. Let's assume, based on 2003 GDP, that the US GDP stands at 11 trillion annually. China stands at 1.4. Let's also assume that the US economy grows at 4% annually and that China grows at a generous 10%.
A few iterations should be all we need to predict the future based on these assumptions.
1) US 11.00 trillion + 4% = 11.44 (+ 0.44 Tr)
China 1.40 trillion + 10% = 1.54 (+ 0.14 Tr)
2) US 11.44 Trillion + 4% = 11.90 (+ 0.46 Tr)
China 1.54 trillion + 10% = 1.70 (+ 0.16 Tr)
3) US 11.90 Trillion + 4% = 12.38 (+ 0.48 Tr)
China 1.70 trillion + 10% = 1.87 (+ 0.17 Tr)
So it would appear that the Chinese economy would have to expand at roughly 30% per year just to match the growth of the US. Can't happen. The US economy would have to suffer a cataclysmic contraction for China to even see us on the horizon.
The agreement between India and China, according to their economists, will result in a possible trade increase of 15 billion dollars over a 5 year period. To put that in perspective, 15 billion worth of goods pass between the US and Canada in half a month.
Bottom line, if we want to keep China in the rear view mirror, we need to avoid electing another Clinton.
"China stands at 1.4 trillion"
Actually you are still using nominal gdp numbers which are overvaluing the dollar. The real value of these asian economies is not so low and we should not be fooled.. Its low only because they have exchange controls which are used to keep their exchange rates lower. I am saying again that the real gdp of China is not 1.4 trillion. Its because of the fact both India and china dont have fully flexible exchange rates and they buy too much US $ their currencies are undervalued. In case of India their central bank intervenes to keep the Rupee from appreciating suddenly but its steadily appreciating in the last few years... say by 4% a year. So the real growth in terms of US$ is economic growth + currency appreciation which will be even more than 10%
Thus World bank estimates ppp GDP to be 6.4 trillion for china and 3 trillion for India. So the chinese GDP will become close to the US gdp in about 10-15 years or so and India might take 25-30 years to reach the US level.
"The agreement between India and China, according to their economists, will result in a possible trade increase of 15 billion dollars over a 5 year period."
Its difficult to estimate it buts safe to say that trade in Asia in general will grow a lot since its so under utilized. But again we have to becareful in measuring in US$.
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