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To: telebob

These figures dont explain reality because they are based on severely depressed currencies of Asia. The currency revaluation going on right now where the US$ is falling will continue and will increase the purchasing power of Asian countries enormously. Thus ppp model is a better indicator.


50 posted on 04/13/2005 8:20:26 PM PDT by Arjun (Skepticism is good. It keeps you alive.)
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To: Arjun; unkus

Let's do the math. Let's assume, based on 2003 GDP, that the US GDP stands at 11 trillion annually. China stands at 1.4. Let's also assume that the US economy grows at 4% annually and that China grows at a generous 10%.

A few iterations should be all we need to predict the future based on these assumptions.

1) US 11.00 trillion + 4% = 11.44 (+ 0.44 Tr)
China 1.40 trillion + 10% = 1.54 (+ 0.14 Tr)

2) US 11.44 Trillion + 4% = 11.90 (+ 0.46 Tr)
China 1.54 trillion + 10% = 1.70 (+ 0.16 Tr)

3) US 11.90 Trillion + 4% = 12.38 (+ 0.48 Tr)
China 1.70 trillion + 10% = 1.87 (+ 0.17 Tr)

So it would appear that the Chinese economy would have to expand at roughly 30% per year just to match the growth of the US. Can't happen. The US economy would have to suffer a cataclysmic contraction for China to even see us on the horizon.

The agreement between India and China, according to their economists, will result in a possible trade increase of 15 billion dollars over a 5 year period. To put that in perspective, 15 billion worth of goods pass between the US and Canada in half a month.

Bottom line, if we want to keep China in the rear view mirror, we need to avoid electing another Clinton.


56 posted on 04/14/2005 8:51:08 AM PDT by telebob
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