Let's do the math. Let's assume, based on 2003 GDP, that the US GDP stands at 11 trillion annually. China stands at 1.4. Let's also assume that the US economy grows at 4% annually and that China grows at a generous 10%.
A few iterations should be all we need to predict the future based on these assumptions.
1) US 11.00 trillion + 4% = 11.44 (+ 0.44 Tr)
China 1.40 trillion + 10% = 1.54 (+ 0.14 Tr)
2) US 11.44 Trillion + 4% = 11.90 (+ 0.46 Tr)
China 1.54 trillion + 10% = 1.70 (+ 0.16 Tr)
3) US 11.90 Trillion + 4% = 12.38 (+ 0.48 Tr)
China 1.70 trillion + 10% = 1.87 (+ 0.17 Tr)
So it would appear that the Chinese economy would have to expand at roughly 30% per year just to match the growth of the US. Can't happen. The US economy would have to suffer a cataclysmic contraction for China to even see us on the horizon.
The agreement between India and China, according to their economists, will result in a possible trade increase of 15 billion dollars over a 5 year period. To put that in perspective, 15 billion worth of goods pass between the US and Canada in half a month.
Bottom line, if we want to keep China in the rear view mirror, we need to avoid electing another Clinton.
"China stands at 1.4 trillion"
Actually you are still using nominal gdp numbers which are overvaluing the dollar. The real value of these asian economies is not so low and we should not be fooled.. Its low only because they have exchange controls which are used to keep their exchange rates lower. I am saying again that the real gdp of China is not 1.4 trillion. Its because of the fact both India and china dont have fully flexible exchange rates and they buy too much US $ their currencies are undervalued. In case of India their central bank intervenes to keep the Rupee from appreciating suddenly but its steadily appreciating in the last few years... say by 4% a year. So the real growth in terms of US$ is economic growth + currency appreciation which will be even more than 10%
Thus World bank estimates ppp GDP to be 6.4 trillion for china and 3 trillion for India. So the chinese GDP will become close to the US gdp in about 10-15 years or so and India might take 25-30 years to reach the US level.
"The agreement between India and China, according to their economists, will result in a possible trade increase of 15 billion dollars over a 5 year period."
Its difficult to estimate it buts safe to say that trade in Asia in general will grow a lot since its so under utilized. But again we have to becareful in measuring in US$.