Posted on 03/29/2005 9:05:12 AM PST by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Deterrence Instability: Hizbullah's Fuse to Iran's Bomb
Gerald M. Steinberg, The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs analyzes Europe's vain hope that a nuclear Iran will be a responsible nuclear power:
In private conversations, many Europeans are increasingly ready to admit the obvious - that without credible threats, Iran will not end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. They then argue that this is not disastrous, and that Iran will, of necessity, act as a responsible nuclear power in order to avoid catastrophic destruction. They point to the history of the U.S. and the Soviet Union as an example of successful deterrence...The author points out that for strategic deterrence to work there must exist the means for direct communication between Iran and its enemies to quickly resolve any misinterpretations of each others actions. Iran has no such communication with its chief enemies, the US and Israel. Thus the likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe is high.
[The author argues] this regime could trigger confrontations and crises that could quickly escalate out of control. The Iranian religious leaders who make the key decisions via the Expediency Council have very limited knowledge of and contact with the outside world, and have close links with terror groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad. ...
In the terminology of international relations theory, Iran is a revisionist state, uninterested in preserving the status quo but, rather, seeking to expand and use its capabilities to alter the international and regional political framework. The regime's extreme Islamic ideology and declarations of unmitigated hostility are seen as posing an existential threat to Israel. In 2001, then-PresidentRafsanjani called the establishment of Israel the "worst event in history," and declared, "In due time the Islamic world will have a military nuclear device, and then the strategy of the West would reach a dead end, since one bomb is enough to destroy all Israel."7 Similarly, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared "that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted."8 This obsession is also reflected in highly anti-Semitic programs on Iranian television, as well as the transfer of shiploads of missiles, explosives, and weapons to Palestinian terror groups. ...
the isolation of Iran's leaders, the fog that surrounds its decision-making structures, the absence of direct channels of communication, and its radical, religious-based, revisionist objectives will make the development of stable deterrence extremely difficult. ...
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice released the DOS report Supporting Human Rights and Democracy: The U.S. Record 2004 - 2005. The excerpt on Iran.
- The New Republic takes a look at Bush's strategy on Iran with some interesting revelations.
- Iran blames Israel over Iranian plots in Egypt.
- Ali Larijani won the backing of hardline parties for his presidential election bid.
- Iraqi liberals challenge the Iraqi Islamic hardliners.
- Will Iran have to make a choice between Hezbollah or it's nukes?
- The Weekly Standard says that the Washington Post bombs nuclear history.
- Public hatred of the regime is growing in Iran. A photo.
- Rich Minister reports how a lone diplomat compromised the hunt for Bin Laden.
- And finally, The National Review Online examines a potentially powerful force for change in the Middle East, sex!
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This is THE most important issue facing the world today.
Iran with nuke will use them, especially if the Mullahs lose power, which they will eventually.
Millions will die, the planet will be contaminated, and we need to face the reality that this will happen if we are not willing to do WHATEVER it takes to depose the Mullah regime before they get nukes. No agreement with them is worthy anything. They must be removed, the sooner the better.
"Rafsanjani called the establishment of Israel the "worst event in history," and declared, "In due time the Islamic world will have a military nuclear device, and then the strategy of the West would reach a dead end, since one bomb is enough to destroy all Israel."7 Similarly, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared "that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted."8 This obsession is also reflected in highly anti-Semitic programs on Iranian television, as well as the transfer of shiploads of missiles, explosives, and weapons to Palestinian terror groups. ..."
-We'll see who will say the final word on that.
Memo to Iran: Egypt, June 5, 1967.
Ping!
They only behave if assured of total destruction of Iran military & all suspected nuke sites [+ much collateral damage] by Israel & U.S.
Okay, you pointed out the key issue. It should be noted that historically there has never been an "irresponsible" nuclear power. Nuclear weapons have been used only 2 times and that is by the United States. And, although we cannot predict contracter-factual history, we very probably saved not only American, but also Japanese lives in the process.
Thus, the key question is, if Iran had nuclear weapons whether they would use them or allow an individual or organization to get their hands on them who would.
Of course it comes down to how crazy and fanatical the guys is charge really are. Are they first fanatics and second politicians (like Hitler) or are they politicians first - interested primarily in maintaining their power and survival.
If your answer is the former they can never be a "responsible" nuclear power and Realpolitik dictates that we must use every means necessary to prevent it. If it is the latter the logic suggest a slightly different course of action from "any means necessary".
Please answer keeping in mind that "any means necessary" could potentially mean politically unpalatable choices (like the reinstatement of the draft) for the United States.
The question of whether Iran with nukes would use them or not, is of course key. However, it is the kind of question where the wrong answer (i.e. we believe Iran will be responsible, but Iran in fact uses, or enables others to use, nuclear weapons) is so catastrophic that simple prudence suggests that the only logical approach is to assume Iran will not be responsible with nuclear weapons, and prevent it from acquiring them. The Iranian's track record does not inspire confidence.
Interesting points, but I am not sure it is an either or situation. What if you don't know whether they are true fanatics or politicians? Given the potential consequences if they are fanatics, don't you have to err on the side of assuming they are until proven otherwise? Have you seen anything from this regime to make you feel truly comfortable they are rational actors? Confident enough to bet a couple hundred thousand lives on it?
Even if they are rational, it doesn't mean that won't act irrationally to get what they want. Sometimes it pays off to act crazy. The costs of putting up with the blackmail potential of even a sane and deterable Iran might be high enough to justify an any means necessary approach (although I do not think they will ever bring back the draft, nobody wants it, especially the military).
To say nothing of the additional paragraphs from 6-10 June 1967 regarding Syria and Jordan. Seems I've seen things written in a certain Book that indicate God says otherwise than what these mullahs are blathering.
I agree. Whatever it takes. Iran must be prevented from getting nukes *AT ALL COSTS* Once they get them, Israel and possibly Iraq, a nation that we worked so hard to free will be gone. Even if they do get nukes we must take the risk and attack them anyway. With mullahs its not a matter of if but WHEN they will use it.
Who could trust Iran to be a responsible nuclear power? Only europe because they will not target europe they will target ISREAL and US. The prostpect of Iran with a nuclear device makes the draft a price I would be willing to pay.
These are the type of people who crashed planes into buildings, who set off suicide bombs in Israel. They cannot be trusted.
Bump!
This thread is now closed.
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