The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update
By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.

The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head

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Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS

[Jeff Head]

With their Standard missiles, with Harpoon, with the excellent ASW capability, and with their NTU (New Threat Upgrade) sensor suite [NTDS (Naval Tactical Data Sytem)operating SPS-48E air search, SPS-55 Surface search, SPG-60 and SPQ-9A gun fire control, and UFCS (Underwater Fire Control System) operating SQS-53 sonar], I believe the KIDDs will fair very well against both the Sovermenny and the Lanzhou. In addition, they have the Phalanx CIWS and are NAVMACS (Naval Modular Automated Communication System).

When in US service they were known as AEGIS-light, and sport the ability to fire surface-to-air missiles in support of Aegis cruisers, which, if necessary, can assume control of the KIDD's missiles (very critical in any confrontation in the Straits of Formosa). The were considered in the mid-to late 1990's, next to the AEGIS cruisers, to be the most formidable warship of her size ever to patrol the world's oceans, blending the best features of the SPRUANCE Class destroyers with the combat system of the VIRGINIA Class nuclear cruisers to produce a ship with unique characteristics:

• A ship so quiet, and an ASW system so capable, that she operates offensively against submarines.

• They were considered, next to the AEGIS ships, to be the most sophisticated medium-range AAW systems in the Fleet, quick-reacting and highly accurate, with the capability for today's air defense environment and the growth potential for tomorrow's.

• An exceptionally reliable and responsive engineering plant.

• A deadly surface-to-surface weapons capability

IOW...do not count the KIDDs out, they are still very, very capable surface combatants.

Just my opinion.

[GOP_1900AD]

What a wild order of battle this is shaping up to be ...

[Jeff Head]

Basically US stuff (althought the ROC also has some French and indiginous stuff) against Russian and indiginous PRC stuff.

In the past when it came to pitting Russian stuff against US stuff in Israel, in Iraq, and elsewhere...US stuff cleaned clock.

I believe the Chinese are premature in pushing things hard now...and that's fine...unless they have some ace up their sleave that they plan to spring on us (ie. a truly operational and effective supercavitating weapon or some other technological or asymetrical surprise we are not prepared for).

[Mase]

"However, I have met a number of average Chinese who, while not involved in politics, do believe in future Chinese hegemony"
_________________________

I don't doubt that at all. I suspect there are many in Russia who believe that the Ukraine, the Baltic's etc. still belong under their sphere of influence. I'm certain there are many Russians who, at one time, also believed that war with us was inevitable. I don't agree with you that the younger ethnic Chinese in SE Asia are pro PRC given the very real threat they pose to their freedom.

Again, my hope is the Chinese elites will want something more than communist rule and can influence the party toward a freer economy and political system. Whether this happens or not Chinese aggression has to be contained. If the Middle East continues to adopt democratic reforms and Russia can be pushed in the right direction, China will find itself in a box.

Additionally, I hope we continue pushing the Japanese to change their constitution so they can arm themselves to the teeth. This would give them something to do with all the dollars they have and would be a boon to our armament industry. It would also serve to stimulate their domestic economy which has been bogged down for over a decade. Having a friendly bulwark between China and North Korea would help temper any enthusiasm the Chinese communists have for expansion.

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: Additionally, I hope we continue pushing the Japanese to change their constitution so they can arm themselves to the teeth. This would give them something to do with all the dollars they have and would be a boon to our armament industry. It would also serve to stimulate their domestic economy which has been bogged down for over a decade.

Yep!

[Mase]

RE: I believe the huge market, as long as the communists are still in power, is an illusion specifically intended to draw us there.
____________________

You may be right but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on. They know full well what the risks are and that their technology could be stolen, their business model duplicated or one of many other bad scenarios. The government could always nationalize industry once they have what they want. Doing so, however, would end any western influence which would be to their detriment.

If the economy develops as promised then the ones who get there first are in an excellent position to benefit from the development of a huge market.

Should their economy collapse from a looming banking crisis and Beijing's insistence on micromanaging investments, they may choose to work their way out of it by eliminating the onerous controls that sent them there in the first place. Unless of course the IMF decides to come in and bail them out.

Or, they may choose to blame the west and go to war to deal with the inevitable unrest from the effects of economic collapse. I hope for the best but fully understand the worst that could happen.

[sukhoi-30mki]

I think the missile that Saddam fired at Kuwait was nothing more than a modified Silkworm-which was older than most American soldiers fighting the war.

about the rail gun concept,
http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/07/rail-guns-for-navy.html

[Mase]

RE:I love this one:The United States is 41st in the world in infant mortality. Cuba scores higher (NYT, Jan. 12, 2005).

Or this one:"The U.S. and South Africa are the only two developed countries in the world that do not provide health care for all their citizens."
______________________

Here is my favorite:
"Of the 20 most developed countries in the world, the U.S. was dead last in the growth rate of total compensation to its workforce in the 1980s.... In the 1990s, the U.S. average compensation growth rate grew only slightly, at an annual rate of about 0.1 percent" (The European Dream, p.39). Yet Americans work longer hours per year than any other industrialized country, and get less vacation time.


No mention that in the 90's we created 20 million jobs to the EU's 2 million. They extol the EU's 32 hour work week and 6 weeks of vacation but never mention the low productivity or 10+% unemployment. Hey, at least Germany has a trade surplus!

With sources like the NYT, AP, The European Dream(?), CNN and USA Today; who am I to argue with these facts?

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

The biggest problem that I see here is that China launches a war against Taiwan to relieve itself from internal problems resulting from corruption and tyranny. Argentina did that - with disastrous results for Argentina.

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on.

I would have to challenge you here. To me, not going in with blinders on would look something like the following. A very formal analysis, not unlike what insurance actuary table developers might undertake, would be done. There would be many factors included. Among them would be the fact of dealing with a non elected, more or less Communist government and future geopolitical threats. Having been actually involved in the nuts and bolts discussions regarding where to source, and where to place operations in the field, I can state that in my own experience, the approach has not had the rigor I have described. There has been little if any formal consideration of geopolitical risks. Look at the typical business continuity plan. They only look at things like natural disasters, civil unrest and terrorism. They don't have a category such as "Stalinists move government in host country to war footing" or things like that.

[Jeff Head]

But Argentina was not in the economic/maufacturing/trade position CHina is in...and also did not have a couple of hundred million people that the leadership needed to use one way or another.

Don't get me wrong, if China goes postal, I believe the results will ultimately be the same as when Hitler and Tojo did...but I believe it wost oceans of blood, the lives of the best amongst us, and mountains of the wealth of this nation and others which could be put to better use. Unfortunately, as Thomas Paine said with respect to the personal gun ownership when asked if every man would be better off laying down their arms, he said that in fact it would be great if noone owned firearms, but then added this wise insight..."but because others will not, we dare not.".

So it is is on the international scale as well. If we are to stay free...we must remain armed. And I prefer that we are so well armed that no one else dares mess with us.

[Jeff Head]

In case the two of you hadn't seen this...more developments on the rapid buildup of the Red Chinese Navy (PLAN). Must be what our parents and grandparents experienced in the ate 1930's.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry for the typos...

...but I believe it wost oceans of blood...

Should read...

...but I believe it will cost oceans of blood...

[Rockpile]

If China is ever to field aircraft carriers they are going to need to start small and learn the game.

Seems to me that the Varyag or something like it would be deployed first as a training vessel.

[Cronos]

The Pakis are on China's side -- in any war with China, Pakistan will fight shoulder to shoulder with China -- after all they have Chinese-made nuclear weapons and Chinese-made missiles (via North Korea).

[Cronos]

The Pakis are on China's side -- in any war with China, Pakistan will fight shoulder to shoulder with China -- after all they have Chinese-made nuclear weapons and Chinese-made missiles (via North Korea, in exchange for nuclear weapons to NK) AND they gave the Chinese the tech for making the Chinese copy of the F16 (the plane we sold to the Pakis)

[Ecthelion]

Exactly. They have diesel electric subs now. Woofreakinhoo. Waste of a torpedo from one of our attack subs. Let's put it this way: the Russians never became as good as us at Naval technology or tactics, and yet people expect the Chinese to suddenly become demigods because they now have aging Russian equipment? Bah.

[Jeff Head]

In litoral, close waters, particularly with air support from their own shores, the newer diesel electrics are very dangerous. That is the exact setting in the Taiwan Straits, much of the South China Sea and most of the China Sea.

Do not underestimate them...underestimating the enemy leads to additonal deaths for ourselves and our allies.

[Jeff Head]

More on the Cinese Naval buildup.

[Jeff Head]

More on the Red Chinese naval buildup.