Replies

RE: I believe the huge market, as long as the communists are still in power, is an illusion specifically intended to draw us there.
____________________

You may be right but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on. They know full well what the risks are and that their technology could be stolen, their business model duplicated or one of many other bad scenarios. The government could always nationalize industry once they have what they want. Doing so, however, would end any western influence which would be to their detriment.

If the economy develops as promised then the ones who get there first are in an excellent position to benefit from the development of a huge market.

Should their economy collapse from a looming banking crisis and Beijing's insistence on micromanaging investments, they may choose to work their way out of it by eliminating the onerous controls that sent them there in the first place. Unless of course the IMF decides to come in and bail them out.

Or, they may choose to blame the west and go to war to deal with the inevitable unrest from the effects of economic collapse. I hope for the best but fully understand the worst that could happen.

RE: but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on.

I would have to challenge you here. To me, not going in with blinders on would look something like the following. A very formal analysis, not unlike what insurance actuary table developers might undertake, would be done. There would be many factors included. Among them would be the fact of dealing with a non elected, more or less Communist government and future geopolitical threats. Having been actually involved in the nuts and bolts discussions regarding where to source, and where to place operations in the field, I can state that in my own experience, the approach has not had the rigor I have described. There has been little if any formal consideration of geopolitical risks. Look at the typical business continuity plan. They only look at things like natural disasters, civil unrest and terrorism. They don't have a category such as "Stalinists move government in host country to war footing" or things like that.