The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update
By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.

The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head

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Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS

[Toddsterpatriot]

Great point! Allow me to add further to it. Indeed, the cheap stuff sourced for Wal Mart does not add up to much.

All I'm trying to say!!

[judicial meanz]

Lets see:

A gator fleet, some upgraded destroyers, and 13 new submarines added to their collection of old Soviet era Kilo's and less than a half dozen homebuilt nukes.

Compared to the US Seventh fleet, this is one days work, even with the Chinese work in missile and anti-ship technology.

And if the 7th fleet isnt enough, there is always boomer floating around to make the scorecard even.

[Jeff Head]

True free market copmpetition does work wonders when both parties are playing pretty much on the same ground and from the same "free" perspective. The so-called "Free Trade" we are conducting with China is decidedly not the case. They plan to bury us and we are fueling their drive to do it.

In that competition, the net result is not spilled oil, less longevity of a product or something that doesn't produce quite as good fidelity sound...no, that competition is ultimately barterd in lives and blood, lots of lives and blood.

[judicial meanz]

Good job Jeff!

[Tommyjo]

They deploy as part of training exercises. The same way as other US strategic bomber fly out to ranges in the UK and all the way back after dropping bombs as part of global projection missions. For too long the B-2 was reliant on operating solely from the US. With deployable climate controlled shelters the B-2 can now deploy and operate from a number of airfields worldwide. Not every deployment of a strategic bomber is a warning/threat sabre rattling or impending action. To listen to some Freepers on the subject they are convinced that they are off to drop bombs on North Korea within the week!

[Jeff Head]

Thanks, I have a son in law in the services. Our enemies are quite content to expend quite a few cheap DE's to bag one or more of our nukes. The only place they have the chance to do that, IMHO, is in the littorals. They want to draw our big boats in there, where they may be able to maintain some symbolance of air superiority because it is so close to their shores, so they can take their shots against our subs...and also against our carriers.

[Euro-American Scum]

In that competition, the net result is not spilled oil, less longevity of a product or something that doesn't produce quite as good fidelity sound...no, that competition is ultimately barterd in lives and blood, lots of lives and blood.

And nobody is paying attention to this. Nobody.

[GOP_1900AD]

No kidding man. We (the collective we) just don't seem to get the fact that the Peace of San Francisco of 1951, and, it's modifier, the Treaty of Paris of 1990, is essentially unravelling. In the West, we've talked ourselves into believing that we are "beyond the end of history" and that an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity has taken over. It's understandable, when we see things like NAFTA and the EU and the many, essentially Western initiated things like WTO and the like. The anti Western forces, having sensed the zeal with which the West has embraced this false peace, have, with the exception of certain Islamist extremists, who fight us in the here and now, feined to embrace this latest attempt at creating a global market utopia. It is allowing them, especially and particularly true in the case of the PRC, to seize the means of production with Western acquiescence and to make the West dependent on them. Most in the West believe, foolishly, that the PRC will actually truly ascend to the WTO and abide by its rules, in 2007. That is their justification for not taking a war preparation stance. It's tragic.

[Mac94]

That's if we ever decide to use the 7th Fleet to defend Taiwan. China's economic prowess, her ever increasing hold of vital oil resources, her control over the Panama canal, her road mobile ICBMs, etc., give China a larger and larger stick/carrot to "convince" Washington that maybe standing in the ChiComs way isn't quite worth the pain that such a move would bring.

That are many ways to defeat and adversary, on the battle field is just one of them.

[Jeff Head]

Well, lately, the Defense Department and the Bush administration seem to be paying much more attention. A few months ago we surged seven carriers for exercises off of Taiwan...now we are sending B-2's to Guam and basing more SSN's in the area. Messages are being sent...and they are publicizing the concerns in the press nowadays. Hopefully the pendulum is swinging a bit.

[Jeff Head]

Even if we do...in the confined spaces of the Straits there, and even the China and South China Seas, with the numbers of new destroyers the Chinese are producing, the number of new, very modern aircraft, including AWACS, they are making the nut much more tough to crack when we have to send our assets into that maelstrom.

It's going to be dicey...and if we are going to get past it, we need to take the economic battle back to them starting right now, IMHO, and bite the bullet and treat them like Reagan did the Soviets in the 80's. Just my own take on the matter.

[Tommyjo]

Jeff,
You are reading too much into the Varyag. It certainly is not being outfitted. It still sits as a rusting enginless hulk. It would cost a fortune for the PRC to outfit it back to operational status.

[Mase]

"Nope. Total worth of goods is 7.5%. Total number of items in the store is over 70%."
____________________________

Wow! 7.5% of Wal Mart's total purchases ($15 billion from China) takes up more than 70% of their shelf space. If their cost of goods sold is 75% ($197 billion in purchases vs $260 billion in revenue for 2004)that 70% of shelf space generated only about $20 billion in revenue - less than 8% of their total.

OTOH, purchases from American based suppliers totaled $137.5 billion in 2004 - (70% of total purchases). Pretty staggering numbers for retail when less than 23% of your shelf space generates $183 billion (70% of total) in revenue.

Wal Mart should immediately reduce their store size by 70% and become a much more profitable company.

Or, you could be wrong.

[GOP_1900AD]

If we, as a nation, have not consistently shown the resolve, since WW2, to defeat each and every Communist insurgency and other forms of vermin, with swift, decisive and overwhelming force, then where will we gain such resolve in the sort of conflict that seems to be brewing in Asia? We already have to tip toe (at least according to the standard logic) around various accusations by both elements in fellow Western countries and some of our own here in the US, of "imperialism" and "hegemony." Make no mistake, even the WOT is downscoped versus what it could have been, precisely due to such considerations. So if we prosecute a down scoped war in response to an attack on the WTC and Pentagon (and threats of much, much more pain), and we outright have failed against two bit Commie insurgents more than once (or at least, our proxies have failed) and, we have a bunch of Michael Moores and Ward Churchills running around fomenting national self hatred, what precisely do we imagine the response would really be if the PRC moved against Taiwan, or for that matter, on multiple Asian fronts? So long as they don't immediately threaten the oil, or, other, of our vital interests, how will we muster a good, swift, massive response, with all these accusers both within and without, who already envy and hate the West and the Western Tradition?

[Toddsterpatriot]

Ouch, math hurts.

[Jeff Head]

Actually, it made the transit there in remarkably good shape. They are working on it there in their naval shipyards and I do not believe for a minute that the work is for any casino.

They may not make it operational...in my book series I do not see them taking that track. But they are studying it and learning. They may end up doing something entirely different and unexpected...that's what I try and project, creating very capable STOL/VTOL carriers first in numbers for battling it out close in...followed later by larger deck carriers.

We shall see.

[GOP_1900AD]

You all are arguing about Wal Mart when you ought to be looking at computers, and other electronics, including even the innards of DoD equipment and weapons systems. Is the Wal Mart debate a smoke screen, preventing substantive debate acout ICs, PCBAs, computuers, RF amplifiers, rare earth minerals, and the like?

[judicial meanz]

China is definitely pursuing an encirclement strategy, thats a well known fact. Our politicians are sleeping at the helm, and thats a fact too. Both parties.

China will be a threat in a few years, but I can speak from 5 years experience in the US 7th Fleet. China's navy is regionally formidable, but it cannot even begin to compete with US 7th Fleet even if it gets two carriers into commission. The 7th would smoke them so hard they would wish they had never dreamed of the idea.

Taiwan may not be the spark point, but China will seek another sooner or later. Its inevitable that they will challenge us for the Pacific. Its also inevitable the 7th Fleet will kick them hard in the sternsheets when they do, wherever they do.

[Jeff Head]

If the ballons go up in a major way...and if things look dire (as they did in the early days of WW II) not knowing if we will prevail or survive...look for all the PC stuff to quickly go out the windows. Unfortunately, it sadly appears that a few thousand deaths will not get us to that stage...it will probably take hundreds of thousands. But when we get there...then the gloves will come off and the slug fest will be on.

[GOP_1900AD]

The key for me is the surge capacity they have for serial ship production. They are currently among the top 3 producers of marine tonnage. And if one were to include all the container cranes they are pushing out of there, they would be number one in terms of tonnage shipped. Imagine that capacity, or even a larger fraction of it, applied to serial production of miltary ships and subs.