The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
2005 Update
By Jeff Head, February 2005


As an update to the original "Rising Sea Dragon in Asia", that I publiushed in January of 2004 (and have been writing and warning about since 2000), I offer this update, dated in February of 2005. This report is fairly short and broad, and I believe does not contain the detail necessary to reflect the true scope of the emerging threat. But it does clearly indicate the nature and size of the current Red Chinese buildup, and their is only one principle power that such a buildup can be directed at, the United States military.

Regarding the continuing naval buildup, the Chinese have already built and launched two of the brand new, very modern, Aegis type Lanzhou Class destroyers, two of the new Guangzhou Class guided missile destroyers, two new Ma'anshan Class guided missile frigates, four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?), and a class of very modern diesle-electric attack subs. In addition, the west has now seen another new class, dubbed the Type 51C that was just launched in December of 2005 in the Dalian, Liaoning Province. Another area air defense destroyer similar to the Type 52C, Lanzho class, this new class is similar in appearance to the Arleigh Burke class original batch destroyers, and is based on the late 1990's Luhai class hull.. It has an Aegis type air defense capability, but no helo facilities, while the two new Type 52C's are similar to the Arliegh Burke Batch IIA ships, with onboard helicopter landing and housing facilities.

All of this is in addition to acquiring four very modern and capable Hangzhou Class destroyers from Russia and a total of twelve very modern Russian diesel-electric subs, as well as currently building their own new and modern classes of nuclear attack subs and ballistic missile submarines, along with continuing heavy research into aircraft carrier design and/or refitting.

The efforts continue unabated as the Red Chinese continue to build or aquire these EIGHT new classes of ships simultaneously at a rapid pace. Eight new classes of ships at once represents a HUGE outlay in technology and capital across the board. It is almost unheard of and is representative of the massive arms build-up the Red Chinese are embarked upon with their new found wealth. If continued, it can have but one goal in mind, a direct challenge for naval dominance in the Pacific Rim and beyond. As stated, that challenege is a direct one to the United States Navy.

In the mean time, the Chinese are also modernizing their naval air forces at a rapid pace, acquiring or license building hundreds of modern SU-27, SU-27SK, and SU-30 aircraft from Russia, many with very credible strike at sea, air to surface missile capabiulities. They are also building their own new J-10 aircraft. Within the past two to three years these efforts represent a quantum leap in terms of the quality of the Red Chinese equipment and the rate at which they are being built or otherwise put into service.

Here are some recent pics.

The brand new construction and launch of the area air defense, Aegis-like, Type 51C Class destroyer.


The new Lanzhou Class (Type 52C) Aegis-like destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Guangzhou Class (Type 52B) Guided Missile Destroyer. 1st commissioned in July 2004, second in service in early 2005.


The new Hangzhou Class (Type 951/EM) guided missile destroyers. Four acquired from Russia in the last five years, two already in service, two more in 2005. They carry the Russian Sunburn or Moskit cruise missiles, designed to attack US Aircraft Carriers.


The new Ma'anshan Class (Type 054) Guided Missile frigates. Two launched in late 2003, will be in service in early 2005.


Two of the new Type 73 Amphibious Assault Ship class, of which three have already been built.


The new Yuan Class SSK diesel/electric attack submanrine.


The new Russian acquired Kilo Class SSK diesle/electric attack submarines, of which four have been acquired and EIGHT MORE are on order.


Coninued outfitting of the former Russian Vayrag at the Dalian shipyards.


Red Chinese SU-30 and SU-27SK (J11) and SU-27 aircraft.


The chinese Produced J-10 attack fighter.

As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their across the board naval buildup and their carrier development plans towards ultimately lauching their own, the balance of power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance. Do not forget, the Chinese have purchased and are studying and apparently refitting western style and Russian aircraft carriers. Their intentions in this regard, with the production of all the support and defense ships necessary to form carrier battle groups of their own is clear. Even without those groups, they are poducing a formidable force to challenge our groups in the inner island chain in the western Pacific.

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be very much inferior to the decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the Sunburn or Moskit missiles and perhaps supercavitiating torpedo technology, a credible threat to American naval supremecy in the western Pacific could be posed in the next few years...and this does not even address their continued rapid buildup of ballistic missiles and modernization program across the board of their land based armed forces, which are proceeding at a similar pace as that described here regarding their navy and naval air forces.

Although the hefty12-14% increase in direct military expenditures of the Red Chinese (and this does not include dual use and so-called private sector input to the defense apparatus-just remeber, in the Red Chinese system, there is no real private sector) represents a small proportion of US Military outlays, remember as well that a significant portion of western outlays goes towards relatively high salaries, benefits, and health care costs that the Chinese system is not burdened with. In terms of outlays towards pure military weapons systems directly, the Chinese are rapidly catching up with western numbers. All of this bears very serious consideration and planning.

While we do so, consider this: As stated, the Chinese are currently building and launching eight modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (not including the two new nuclear attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in the China Sea and western Pacific and are rapidly building up across the board to implement them. This should be be reminiscent to our senior citizens who experienced it, or anyone who has studied history, of the rapid buildup of adversary military in the 1930s. We all know where that led.

Again, there can only be one power that the Red Chinese intend to, and must, confront if conflict over geo-political policy comes into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.

Copyright © 2005, by Jeff Head

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Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently wotrks for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military techno-thrillers about future military confrontation with the Red Chinese called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com) that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.

You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES OF NOVELS

[Phsstpok]

I'm not concerned whether it's the first time they've been deployed there or not.

What is significant is that they HAVE BEEN deployed.

Those planes get deployed for a reason.

Those deployments get publicized to send a message.

I'm suggesting that the message being sent may have to do with the Chinese build up referenced in this article along with the sabre rattling they are doing in the Taiwan Straights, as well as the entire Western Pacific.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Total worth of goods is 7.5%.

Finally, someone gets the math.

Total number of items in the store is over 70%.

Source?

[IonImplantGuru]

Our current technology for making screws still makes our boats pretty damn quiet. I was on a fast attack sub during Viet Nam and the screw noise from Russian nucs was unbelievable.

Don't get me started! That was the case in the 'Nam era (coincidently, my time in the Silent Service); not any more! Thanks to Mitsubishi selling to the Soviets the NMC milling technology that we use to manufacture our screws. Between them and the Walker traitors, much of our edge was blunted.

[AmericanInTokyo]

This is almost tantamount to the Imperial Japanese Carrier Task Force (theoretically) saying in early December 1941, in open press release to hard-headed American dunderheads who would not connect the dots, "We are preparing for military action against the United States, by upgrading our training procedures and further buttressing our naval forces in the Northern Pacific Ocean. As we steam toward the Hawaiian Island chain, our battleships and naval aircraft at the ready, we are committed to carrying out regional Asian peace under the terms illuminated by Our Great Emperor."

March 7, 2005: "China's military pledges strong backing in opposing 'Taiwan independence' ... While taking part in a panel discussion on the Government Work Report on March 6, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) delegation pledged that they would work hard to realize a leapfrog development in the building of national defense and modernization of the army, step up preparation for military actions, thereby making new contributions in opposing and curbing "Taiwan independence", and in the defense of state sovereignty, reunification and stability. Liang Guanglie, member of the Central Military Commission and chief of the general staff, pointed out the need to more consciously plan and guide military work from the political height and the national interests as a whole, do a solid job in pushing forward military change with Chinese characteristics and preparations for military actions, and strive to enhance the army's overall combat effectiveness under the condition of informationization. It is essential to be subordinated to and serve the country's overall development strategy and, on the basis of continuous economic development, energetically strengthen the building of national defense and the army, incessantly enhance national defense capabilities and military strength, so as provide a powerful security guarantee for building a well-off society in an all-round way. It is imperative to step up combat readiness in high morale, in compliance with the requirement of actual combat and in the spirit of seizing the day and seizing the hour, and to provide a strong backing in opposing and containing "Taiwan independence" and defending national unification. Li Jinai, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the General Political Department, stressed the need to always put ideological-political building in the first place of armed forces construction, to hold high banners, obey command, enhance the awareness of military soul and adhere to the correct orientation of army building. "

What other warnings do we REALLY NEED on this, the eve of the Pearl Harbour of the 21st Century.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Sober BTTT...!!!

[IonImplantGuru]

Steely-eyed Killers of the Deep (((PING!)))

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

...four of the new large Type 73 Amphibious Assault ships (that's right, four in a very short time frame and more building...can you guess what these are inded for?)...

If the Taiwanese government had some brains, it would let its citizens own guns and train with them in order to repel the Chicom hordes in the future.

[houeto]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/29/content_395728.htm

So far, more than 70 per cent of the commodities sold in Wal-Mart are made in China.

[s_asher]

Agreed. As a writer yourself, I think you'd want people who cite your work to give credit! :)

Personally, I think it's a good thing that the Chinese are competing against us. Americans are competitive and we are at our best when competing against someone. When our auto industry fell behind, the Japanese gave us a good kick in the rear and we got our act together pretty quick.

In my younger days I had bought in the "Buy American" hysteria of the 1980's and got myself a new Ford. The car had so many problems and leaked oil from day 1. Since then I've learned affixing a "Bomb Japan Again" bumper sticker is about as useful as "Boycott Walmart". Unless if we get better and more efficient, we deserve to lose.

[Toddsterpatriot]

You said items, that said commodities. Try again.

[IonImplantGuru]

[The Virginia class boats] Too expensive, too big, and too capable to risk sending in there IMHO, we need our own diesel electrics in my view.

You and quite a few US submarine veterans too, Jeff.

[Paul_Denton]

If the Taiwanese government had some brains, it would let its citizens own guns and train with them in order to repel the Chicom hordes in the future.

I agree. Taiwan's politics are a mess. Their politicians literally beat eachother up over certain issues. Until the current split within the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), the pan-green alliance was the party that wanted to strengthen the military and deter China. Last year, the KMT tried to provoke (and very nearly suceeded) China into attacking by inciting riots (One of China's publically stated conditions for attacking Taiwan was civil unrest on the island for some strange reason) intentionally because of the conroversy over president Chen's victory and assasination attempt. Right now only the Taiwan Solidarity Union and part of the DPP wants the military hardware offered by Bush in 2001.

I wonder why Taiwan bans guns? They have very good reason to allow people to own them. I hope some day they are legalized there.

[BykrBayb]

Thanks for keeping me updated.

[houeto]

You said items, that said commodities. Try again.

>Merriam-Webster Dictionary of Law, © 1996 Merriam-Webster, Inc.

commodity

n : articles of commerce [syn: trade goods, goods]

What? You think they're talking about soybeans and pig butt futures?

[GOP_1900AD]

Here's another one:

http://www.asiawind.com/forums/list.php?f=3

Significantly, this one is headquartered in Columbus, OH. That's right folks, a pan Sinicist web site is allowed to exist right here in the USA. The enemy within ....

[Toddsterpatriot]

See, that's the thing about your source. Not specific enough.
Nobody knows what they mean by commodities.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome. Before he died last year, my World War II vet father of the Pacific Theater of Operatopns (PTO) told me that it took almost two years during World War II to weed out, either through combat or other forms of attrition, the commanders who were not prepared to think correctly as regards Japan and what it would take to defeat them. I pray we do not repeat that bit of history.

[GOP_1900AD]

Great point! Allow me to add further to it. Indeed, the cheap stuff sourced for Wal Mart does not add up to much. Whereas, things like PCB Assemblies, complete electronic systems, mechanical parts and the like add up to a lot.

[Jeff Head]

Lots of treason and culpability. Lots of foolishness and downright shorsightedness in trade policy.

Unfortunately, as the Chinese increase their capabilities, their R&D, their ability to produce their own, we are now looking at more and more competitiveness. We must face it down the way that Reagan faced down the Soviets IMHO. Otherwise we will be left with facing it down the way Patton and others of his ilk did, and at much greater cost to in lives lives and dollars.

[houeto]

See, that's the thing about your source. Not specific enough. Nobody knows what they mean by commodities.

Ok. Enough is enough. I'm calling you out!

You either meet me at Wal-Mart at 8:00 a.m. to do OUR OWN inventory, or you're chicken! (you know where the store is, don't you?)