That's if we ever decide to use the 7th Fleet to defend Taiwan. China's economic prowess, her ever increasing hold of vital oil resources, her control over the Panama canal, her road mobile ICBMs, etc., give China a larger and larger stick/carrot to "convince" Washington that maybe standing in the ChiComs way isn't quite worth the pain that such a move would bring.
That are many ways to defeat and adversary, on the battle field is just one of them.
It's going to be dicey...and if we are going to get past it, we need to take the economic battle back to them starting right now, IMHO, and bite the bullet and treat them like Reagan did the Soviets in the 80's. Just my own take on the matter.
If we, as a nation, have not consistently shown the resolve, since WW2, to defeat each and every Communist insurgency and other forms of vermin, with swift, decisive and overwhelming force, then where will we gain such resolve in the sort of conflict that seems to be brewing in Asia? We already have to tip toe (at least according to the standard logic) around various accusations by both elements in fellow Western countries and some of our own here in the US, of "imperialism" and "hegemony." Make no mistake, even the WOT is downscoped versus what it could have been, precisely due to such considerations. So if we prosecute a down scoped war in response to an attack on the WTC and Pentagon (and threats of much, much more pain), and we outright have failed against two bit Commie insurgents more than once (or at least, our proxies have failed) and, we have a bunch of Michael Moores and Ward Churchills running around fomenting national self hatred, what precisely do we imagine the response would really be if the PRC moved against Taiwan, or for that matter, on multiple Asian fronts? So long as they don't immediately threaten the oil, or, other, of our vital interests, how will we muster a good, swift, massive response, with all these accusers both within and without, who already envy and hate the West and the Western Tradition?
China is definitely pursuing an encirclement strategy, thats a well known fact. Our politicians are sleeping at the helm, and thats a fact too. Both parties.
China will be a threat in a few years, but I can speak from 5 years experience in the US 7th Fleet. China's navy is regionally formidable, but it cannot even begin to compete with US 7th Fleet even if it gets two carriers into commission. The 7th would smoke them so hard they would wish they had never dreamed of the idea.
Taiwan may not be the spark point, but China will seek another sooner or later. Its inevitable that they will challenge us for the Pacific. Its also inevitable the 7th Fleet will kick them hard in the sternsheets when they do, wherever they do.