China is definitely pursuing an encirclement strategy, thats a well known fact. Our politicians are sleeping at the helm, and thats a fact too. Both parties.
China will be a threat in a few years, but I can speak from 5 years experience in the US 7th Fleet. China's navy is regionally formidable, but it cannot even begin to compete with US 7th Fleet even if it gets two carriers into commission. The 7th would smoke them so hard they would wish they had never dreamed of the idea.
Taiwan may not be the spark point, but China will seek another sooner or later. Its inevitable that they will challenge us for the Pacific. Its also inevitable the 7th Fleet will kick them hard in the sternsheets when they do, wherever they do.
You better hope for two things:
1) That they don't all of the sudden double or triple their serial production of military ships.
2) That they are alone, and not accompanied in an axis by other very anti Western players.
Conventionally, I agree, that's why if China were to make a move, they'd attempt to "defeat" us by sidelining us in the conflict so that the 7th Fleet or the USAF, etc. isn't a factor. The 7th would only become involved if attacked or given orders to do so, and if China can force us to the sidelines via political and economic carrots/sticks, then all the firepower the 7th Fleet has is pointless in a PRC/Tiawan war.