Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[Mo1]

I'm looking for a recipe for that dang groundhog

[dakine]

Dude, I went to your profile and it stated Spring Break Photos in California....NOT what I expected.....tsk, tsk

[Gabz]

I think I've had more snow than you this year.......

It's just that's it been a REALLY long winter .. I'm past cabin fever and now I just HATE WINTER!!!

I'm definitely with you on that.

[nwctwx]

Nothing but rain as far as I can tell and that is why I'm totally bent out of shape with all this crapola about the COAST..........parts of Virginia and Maryland are going to get hammerred....but the COAST is going to probably get nothing more than rain.

All storms of this nature are called East Coast storms because the low pressure center typically tracks within 100 miles of the shoreline.

[Dat Mon]

"Philly's in the white area...."

What white area? Please explain

[Tax-chick]

I'm at the little downward notch in the middle of the NC/SC state line. Looks like we get nothing.

[Unknown Freeper]

Where would I rank the potential of this system? At least in the same category as the January 22 2005 storm, but more likely comparable to such memorable events as March 1962, December 1992, and January 1996. Keep in mind that much of the snow produced will be wet-ratio type, which can greatly affect power transmission and roof integrity.

Does everyone have enough milk, bread and toilet paper? lol. I sure am glad I hadn't put the shovels and other equipment back in the basement. We're ready for the fun. Now, if they would just cancel school so I don't have to set the alarm clock, things would be great.

[lainie]

When I lived in the D.C. area, ol' Bob Ryan at channel 4 taught me that (now this is generally speaking), .10" rain is approximately equivalent to making 1" snow. All things being equal and not sleet-mixed or wet/heavy snow, or what have you.

[Darkwolf377]

But the coast isn't just the edge or the waterfrint. I'd say to someone in TX or CA, yes, Baltimore IS on the East Coast. :) I don't think it's meant to be taken so literally--the forecast for The Coast isn't intended just for those with oceanfront property, but to give a more general idea.

I'm 20 minutes from the coast, but when I hear them talking about coastal areas I know it's an easier way of saying "And not on the coast but 20 minutes from the coast..." What affects the coast has residual effects on those of us not ON the waterfront..

[Dan from Michigan]

Damnit. I'm in the 4-6 area here.

[dakine]

10 inches snow (according to density) = 1 inch of rain....(roughly)

[leadpenny]

10" rain is approximately equivalent to making 1" snow. :)

[Howlin]

Oh, I turned it over!

[NCjim]

I went to the grocery store yesterday afternoon and there were few shopping carts to be had. I could not figure out what was the matter until I got home and saw the updated forecast with the s-word in it... I had this (thankfully controllable) urge to race back there for milk, bread and toilet paper. After all, there may be a period of hours where I can't get there! LOL

[Gabz]

I do not envy you with having to get to work regardless of the weather.....I have the highest regard for you essential folks.

Sorry for my rant - it's just a pet peeve of mine. I lived in Delaware for over 20 years, and it was NEVER mentioned when talking about weather problems. Now that I live in Virginia, I have a different problem........I live on the coast, so when I hear the terms "East Coast" "Virginia" "DC" and "Maryland" I really need to know if they are talking about east coast states, or THE coast.

[eleni121]

Yeah..that darn global warming. It hasn't got up over 25-28 even once in February here in WNY.

[Gabz]

A bit of snow for dad would be cool.

If it weren't so cold out, I could actually get some tilling done out in the field.........and I could do it by hand, it's far too wet to pull out the tractor or the tiller. I's mire either one in the mud.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

A near historic snowstorm in the northeast is a BIG storm. When we lived in New York and Connecticut, we saw lots of big storms, but I don't remember many of them being called historic.

I lived 50 years on the Long Island Sound coast.

There were many memorable and historic storms in those years.

The "Ella Grasso" storm of February, 1978 dropped 2 to 4 feet of snow in central Connecticut which shut down all travel in the state.

The Holloween 1991 storm better remembered as the "Perfect Storm" brought big tides but less wind.

December 11, 1992 was perhaps the biggest non hurricane flood tide in the Sound in 50 years.

And the March blizzard of 1993 was the greatest snow storm ever on the east coast, coating heavy snow from Georgia to Canada, burying western North Carolina in 5 feet of the white stuff.

[Howlin]

I bet her school was near me; next time, call me and I'll go pick her up! Only I had trouble getting out of the neighborhood to Baileywick! When I got to the little ridge up to the 540 bridge, a big old Suburban was stuck there. I'm like, OMG.....but I had no food and a house full of company; so I turned around and went out the Six Forks exit; I barely got back!

I read last week that they are going to send our emails telling companies to keep their workers at the office and close down some of the roads so they can salt them? Yeah, right, that's gonna happen.......LOL.

[nwctwx]

The models seem to be underestimating precipitation a bit towards the later hours.