Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Sun shine in Southern California today.....but we should get some crdit for our contributions to this storm, part of our storm has to be part of this storm....but at least on the east coast it will be snow....how deep would 9 feet of water be if it were in snow?

[nwctwx]

BR and others did not say anything about the possibility of this on Friday. After reading a FR thread on the two scenarios being Tennessee Valley or East Coast I wanted to see the local forecast. All the area predictions I saw called for rain/snow mix and did not even mention the Nor Easter possibility. At least NOAA presented the two possibilities.

This storm has been on the long range maps in some form for about a week to 10 days now. It has always appeared as if something very large was going to form, the main question has been track. A very consistent American weather model has stubbornly held onto a western track, even into today. Typically, great weight would be given to this model, but it is currently all alone with its forecast. NOAA/HPC/NWS are all going with a coastal track at this time.

[Ryzaroo]

Here in Baltimore they are saying anywhere from 4-7 to 6-10. I really hope not...I'd be much happier with rain.

[Tax-chick]

About 150 miles inland. Everything has missed us this winter; maybe this one will, too.

[The Mayor]

They are calling for 6 to 10 inches in the Buffalo NY area.

I hope they are wrong!

[xcamel]

This one makes it look a little more intense - but note how perfect the jetstream lines up - perfect strike zone if you were bowling with snowstorms.. [grins]

[Dat Mon]

I hear ya.

For me...there are financial consequences...either if I cancel the event at this late time...OR...if the event goes on with poor attendance.

[nwctwx]

Oh yes, here is the official HPC forecast map.

[Ditter]

The sun is finally out here in Houston. This storm system was a wet one for us. The rough weather moved thru here on Thursday morning and we have had several days of rain.

[nwctwx]

Will do, I should probably creat a weather pinglist, but my TM one is so long I dare not start another. ;)

[Gabz]

I really wish they would learn to watch their terminology....while those areas are in "east coast" states.....none of the areas are ON the COAST. There is a major difference.

Yes, I do live ON the COAST........

[Howlin]

Oh my. But better you than me. We seem to be out of the loop this year; how much have you had already?

[all4one]

LOL...as a skier....I totally agree!!!

[sweetliberty]

I don't know how much more of this global warming I can handle.

[nwctwx]

Looks like the cold front has reached pretty far south. NE has been getting hammered this year.

NWS Boston mentioned such on Friday, even while most forecasts were still calling for a rainy/snowy mix for big cities. This has been a New England winter.

DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING.

[NCjim]

We, as always, are on that lunatic fringe between rain and 'wintry mix'.

Here is the link for Raleigh:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/NCZ041.php?warncounty=NCC183&city=Raleigh

[joshhiggins]

You gotta be kidding.
Ann just melts whenever she sees me.

[Malacoda]

Do the models say what Philly is going to get?

I'm clueless on some of this weather stuff!

[Gabz]

everything I am hearing for us, I'm not far south of Ocean City over the VA line, is rain in the morning, and then again in the afternoon.

Yet it burns me up that they keep saying the COAST. DC and Baltimore on NOT on the coast. Inland in Eastern states, yes - butnot on the coast.

[Howlin]

We certainly do seem to be dodging a bullet this year.