Posted on 02/23/2005 10:23:26 AM PST by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Iran Seeks EU Consent for Modeling Its Nuclear Program on the 'Japanese/German Model'
The Middle East Media Research Institute:
Nuclear Fuel Cycle Capabilities Three Months Short of a Bomb - Introduction
As predicted, the gaps between Iran and the EU3 – namely, Germany, France and Britain – have not been narrowed in the three months of negotiations since last November's 'Paris Agreement.' [1]
The claim that Iran has committed itself to permanently cease its uranium-enrichment activities was inaccurate. Iran insists that its unilateral commitment to the EU3 is a temporary, voluntary and non-binding one, with an expiration date of March 15. [2]
With the approach of March 15, Iran is insistent upon enriching uranium, stating that it is its right and that its uranium-enrichment program is meant only to power its nuclear reactors for civilian purposes. Belgian Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht, however, has recently said: "We should not believe that the Iranians only want to use their nuclear technology for civilian purposes. The country wants an atomic bomb." [3] Iran categorically rejects the European demand that it permanently cease its uranium-enrichment activities and rely upon nuclear fuel supplied by European sources. [4] Iran is also refusing to relinquish its heavy-water reactor, as the Europeans have requested.
In addition, on numerous occasions Iran has declared its intention to attain independent nuclear fuel cycle capabilities, thereby making the production of nuclear weapons possible as well.
In light of the impending crisis with Europe on March 15 and the mounting American pressures, Iran is trying to seek EU consent for modeling its nuclear program on the "Japanese/German model," i.e. attaining nuclear fuel cycle capabilities up to three months short of a bomb. Japan and Germany, which are parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), are considered to have nuclear fuel cycle capabilities, and it is estimated that if they so desired, they could attain nuclear weapons within three months. In a visit to Berlin on February 17, Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi proposed the Japanese/German model as the basis for Iran-EU negotiations. In a meeting with German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, Kharrazi elaborated on Iran's perspective how to resolve the dispute with the EU3: "Peaceful nuclear plants in Germany and Japan can serve as a good model for Iran's nuclear projects, and serve as the basis for any round of talks in that respect." [5]
Another critical deadline awaits Iran in the May 2005 NPT review conference. Iran has announced its rejection of IAEA Director-General Muhammad Al-Baradei's initiative for a five-year moratorium on uranium-enrichment activities, which is expected to be proposed at the coming NPT conference in May. Foreign Minister Kharrazi told the chairman of the NPT review conference, Sergio de Queiroz Duarte, that developing states, including Iran, would not accept any new discrimination in that conference. [6]
In an interview with the conservative Iranian daily Jaam-e Jam, Supreme National Security Council Information Committee Director Ali Agha-Mohammadi said: "In the talks with Europe, we are conquering position after position. The ultimate goal is to preserve [our nuclear] fuel cycle, and we have a long way to go until we achieve it." [7]
Sirus Nasseri, the head of the technical and nuclear committee of Iran's team of negotiators with the EU3, said: "Iran plans to follow up its nuclear fuel production plan completely... The Europeans have good will but still lack necessary political support to reach an agreement... A final agreement in the new round of talks will be based on continuation of [uranium] enrichment by Iran. We will give the Europeans a chance to adopt such a stance but this opportunity will not last forever." [8]
To view further excerpts from the two interviews, see the Appendices at the end of this report.
Toward Crisis: Iran's Insistence on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Capabilities
Statements made by top-ranking Iranian officials in recent weeks suggest that Iran is taking a harder line on its nuclear policy, as the March 15 deadline draws close. [9] ...
In a message delivered on the occasion of the Shiite holiday Eid Ghadir, [12] Iran's Leader Ali Khamenei said: "We are serious in the [nuclear] negotiations with the Europeans, but the Europeans should prove that they are serious too... Unfortunately this has not been the case yet... If the Europeans want to reach a real agreement with Iran on this issue, they must diminish the influence of the U.S. and Zionist pressure... The years that the British ruled the Persian Gulf and Iran during the 19th and 20th centuries... are gone, and now, the Europeans are faced with a great, alert and cultured nation... On the other hand, if the Iranian officials sense that the Europeans are not serious, the current process will be changed." [13] ...
Regarding the European proposal to provide Iran with a light-water reactor in exchange for relinquishing its heavy-water reactor in Arak, currently under construction, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi announced that Iran would never accept the proposal, but added that it would "view Europe's cooperation with Iran on a light-water reactor as positive." [17]
Iran's Atomic Energy Organization's Deputy Head for International Affairs and Planning, Muhammad Sa'idi, said the issue of suspension of uranium enrichment is non-negotiable. He further stated that the Iranian parliament would enact legislation requiring Iran's Atomic Energy Organization "to produce part of the nuclear fuel needed for the country's reactors." [18] Such legislation would put an end to the Iranian commitment to a temporary suspension of uranium-enrichment activities made to the EU3 in November 2004. ...
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"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”
As I've continaully said, you cannot negotiate with terrorists.
We must eliminate this threat now.
boom
We must make Iran's weapons program sites nuclear now.
So, it appears that Iran is going to try to negiotiate with the Europeans to get within 3 months of producing a bomb. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euros accepted such a deal.
The Iranian strategy is obvious. Build as much of the bomb without breaking international agreements. Then, freeze the program. Then, shortly thereafter, re-continue the process with a fervor. They are hoping that they can build a bomb before the Americans and Israelis come.
Of course, there is that other bomb - the Iranian people.
We have three developments that are speeding towards the intersection:
1) Iran gets the bomb
2) US and Israel bomb Iran
3) The Iranian people overthrow their government
Iran's future, and indeed, the future of the War on Terror, depends on which vehicle reaches the intersection first. Or, possibly worse, there could be a collision.
My money is on #3 to happen first. There are very good developments coming out of Iran, I think. But it's still a slight gamble.
In response to a comment yesterday:
Yes, I know that the Middle Eastern nations which undergo regime change are not going to be small replicas of the USA. Of course not! All I desire from such countries is this, and ONLY this:
- Free and fair elections
- The population is more or less free to express themselves and do whatever they want, within certain limits of course
- No production of WMD
- No support for terrorism, supports the elimination of terror elements within its own borders
That's it. If they fulfull those "rules," then I am happy. Everything else is their own business. I respect that other parts of the world have their own cultures and religions. For instance, the Afghan constitution says that presidential candidates must be Muslim. That is distinctly un-American, yet 97% of Afghans are Muslims. It doesn't bother me. I'm sure that if there is a fundamental shift in the religious makeup of Afghan society, the consititution will be amended.
Democracy is chaotic and unpredictable, yet it is the best way. It's understandable that tyrants and dictators are made uneasy about democracy.
One comment about the recent devestating earthquake:
Well, first, like in Bam, all help is welcomed by the regime - except American help (of course!).
Second, I see there are anti-regime protests by the survivors. I was going to predict a couple of days ago that the protests would occur, but I thought it might have been improper to do so, and in poor taste.
This thread is now closed.
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