boom
So, it appears that Iran is going to try to negiotiate with the Europeans to get within 3 months of producing a bomb. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euros accepted such a deal.
The Iranian strategy is obvious. Build as much of the bomb without breaking international agreements. Then, freeze the program. Then, shortly thereafter, re-continue the process with a fervor. They are hoping that they can build a bomb before the Americans and Israelis come.
Of course, there is that other bomb - the Iranian people.
We have three developments that are speeding towards the intersection:
1) Iran gets the bomb
2) US and Israel bomb Iran
3) The Iranian people overthrow their government
Iran's future, and indeed, the future of the War on Terror, depends on which vehicle reaches the intersection first. Or, possibly worse, there could be a collision.
My money is on #3 to happen first. There are very good developments coming out of Iran, I think. But it's still a slight gamble.
In response to a comment yesterday:
Yes, I know that the Middle Eastern nations which undergo regime change are not going to be small replicas of the USA. Of course not! All I desire from such countries is this, and ONLY this:
- Free and fair elections
- The population is more or less free to express themselves and do whatever they want, within certain limits of course
- No production of WMD
- No support for terrorism, supports the elimination of terror elements within its own borders
That's it. If they fulfull those "rules," then I am happy. Everything else is their own business. I respect that other parts of the world have their own cultures and religions. For instance, the Afghan constitution says that presidential candidates must be Muslim. That is distinctly un-American, yet 97% of Afghans are Muslims. It doesn't bother me. I'm sure that if there is a fundamental shift in the religious makeup of Afghan society, the consititution will be amended.
Democracy is chaotic and unpredictable, yet it is the best way. It's understandable that tyrants and dictators are made uneasy about democracy.
One comment about the recent devestating earthquake:
Well, first, like in Bam, all help is welcomed by the regime - except American help (of course!).
Second, I see there are anti-regime protests by the survivors. I was going to predict a couple of days ago that the protests would occur, but I thought it might have been improper to do so, and in poor taste.