Problems Found With '04 Exit Polls

Foxnews.com ^ | Wednesday, January 19, 2005 | AP

[MikefromOhio]

NEW YORK — Two firms that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations reported Wednesday that they found a number of problems with the way the polls were carried out last year, resulting in estimates that overstated John Kerry's share of the vote.

Edison Media Research (search) and Mitofsky International (search) found that the Democratic challenger's supporters were more likely than President Bush's supporters to participate in exit polls interviews. They also found that more errors occurred in exit polls conducted by younger interviewers, and about half of the interviewers were 34 or under.

The polling firms laid out their findings to the consortium of news organizations, known as the National Election Pool. See the results of the study by clicking here (pdf).

The news organizations — ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOX News and The Associated Press — formed the consortium to get exit polling data for the 2004 election after a previous group known as the Voter News Service was disbanded.

In November 2000, flawed information from VNS twice led television networks to incorrectly declare a winner in the presidential race in Florida, the state that proved to be key to the outcome. And in the 2002 election, VNS was unable to provide its members and other clients with results from exit poll surveys.

[sr4402]

In lots of polling places, the exit pollsters were set up right next to the Kerry/Edwards/MoveOn tables. What Republican in their right mind wanted to deal with those Bozos?

I heard that the exit polls were primarily taken in the cities. Look at the County Red/Blue maps and you will see what this would do. The consortium probably wanted to save money and it bit them in the a$$.

The press hasn't been able to get the exit polling right in two elections; showing how lamestream the media really is.

[sanjacjake]

Now- why doesn't this report say it...the Dems have
been cheating for years..since '60..when the Cemetaries in Illinois were emptied for the Kennedy vote....
The rigged the exit polls..same as in 2,000..when the
rigged networks gave Florida to Gore early..coincidence..
I don't think so. Jake

[Apercu]

Do not confuse the Democrats with facts or try to reason with them. Their delusional condition is wrought by pure hatred and a failed idealogy.As Rush says, they have become the bar scene in the first Star Wars.

[buckrat]

Anybody tell Juan Williams yet?

[Paradox]

What gets me is that in all of the years prior to 2000, the exit polls were accurate. 'Wha happened?

Actually, they have always been a bit off. Early polls had Dukakis and Reagan in a virtual tie. The "final" exit polling always has to be adjusted to "fit" the actual results, by a few percentage points. It so happens that usually, the election isn't that close so the error goes unnoticed. The last two elections, however, have been reeeal close...

[Moosilauke]

Exit polling is not something one does as a regular job. It's likely that many, or maybe most, of these exit pollers were academic types--grad students, professional students, instructors. Working tax-payers don't have a day to sacrifice working a one-off menial job like exit polling.

Who are these pollers most likely to try to interview? People like themselves. And who is most likely to respond to one of these pollers? Someone who recognizes the poller as being "like me".

It's no surprise the pollers found almost everyone had voted for Kerry. It's like the famous Pauline Kael complaint: "How did Nixon get elected. I don't know anyone who voted for him!"

[persecutor]

When I say "accurate", I mean that accurate within the unscientific sample suveyed. Exit polls are horribly unscientific-one never hears what the margin of error is the things.

[kellynla]

Well no sheeeeeet LMAO...
next to the Dewey prediction in 1948 , I'd say that the 2004 exit polling was the biggest screwup in recent history! LOL

[Strategerist]

Having worked part-time for the 2000 Census, I think it's more who is willing to stand around and answer a long list of questions from a stranger.

By a huge margin, I had the most difficult time, and the most doors slammed in my face, in wealthy, white areas (in a part of the country where these areas are overwhelmingly Republican.)

I had the easiest time and the most cooperation in lower-income and minority areas (which sort of made me wonder about all the constant claims that the census undercounts minorities.)

[OrioleFan]

Polling irregularities are the true Clinton legacy.
Before Clinton polls were used to measure public opinion.
Clinton used polls to influence public opinion.

[Larry381]

Truly the election that keeps on giving. Nice timing too, a day before the inauguration to maximize the grief and suffering of the distraught fruitcake fringe.

[TASMANIANRED]

They tried to cook the books and got caught.

[BlueNgold]

In related news ....
The Sky is Blue.

[The Wizard]

these crooks tried to steal the election, just a different way....but the internet had them cold

[truth_seeker]

"With mall pollsters you some times get paid to answer their stupid questions."

This may be among the reasons that dems are more willing to participate in the exit poll interviews.

A second reason is likely their intellectual pride. They want to tell others about the really smart thing they just did.

Thirdly, they get reinforcement from group stroking.

[handy old one]

Thirdly, they get reinforcement from group stroking.
That's not legal in INDIANA.

[RtWngr]

:)

[RtWngr]

"In related news ....
The Sky is Blue."

Actually, that is not true. An exit poll, taken last night about 11PM, clearly showed that the sky is black.

[pupdog]

Actually, they have always been a bit off. Early polls had Dukakis and Reagan in a virtual tie.

Wow! That's more than a bit off, I'd say. ;-)

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by persecutor:

"What gets me is that in all of the years prior to 2000, the exit polls were accurate.'Wha happened?"

Because they aren't.

Here are the raw exit poll "popular vote" data for the US Presidential elections from 1988 to 2000, before the exit poll data is adjusted to reflect the final election results. Even the exit polls in Ukraine in the December 26th, 2004 re-vote did not come within their MoE when the final results were published. The "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" report published today continues to show that the exit polls have a bias towards Democrats, which accounted for the bad results taken as gospel by the demented leftists...

Presidential Exit Polls
Raw Data (Unweighted)

Year	Exit Poll Results	Dem Lead	Dem Actual
1988	Dukakis: 50.3% Bush: 49.7%	+0.6%	-7.7%
1992	Clinton: 46% Bush: 33.2%	+12.8%	+5.6%
1996	Clinton: 52.2% Dole: 37.5%	+14.7%	+8.5%
2000	Gore: 48.5% Bush: 46.2%	+2.3%	+0.5%

"As you can see, the raw exit poll results always overstate the Democratic vote, sometimes by as much as eight percentage points. So the fact that the raw results this year overstated Kerry's actual vote tally is hardly cause for alarm."

Source: Washington Monthly, "Political Animal" column, November 17th, 2004 by Kevin Drum - Exit Poll update.
Source: The Century Foundation, PDF file page 5/8 by Ruy Teixeria.

Hope this helps,

dvwjr