Posted on 01/19/2005 9:55:38 AM PST by MikefromOhio
NEW YORK Two firms that conducted Election Day exit polls for major news organizations reported Wednesday that they found a number of problems with the way the polls were carried out last year, resulting in estimates that overstated John Kerry's share of the vote.
Edison Media Research (search) and Mitofsky International (search) found that the Democratic challenger's supporters were more likely than President Bush's supporters to participate in exit polls interviews. They also found that more errors occurred in exit polls conducted by younger interviewers, and about half of the interviewers were 34 or under.
The polling firms laid out their findings to the consortium of news organizations, known as the National Election Pool. See the results of the study by clicking here (pdf).
The news organizations ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOX News and The Associated Press formed the consortium to get exit polling data for the 2004 election after a previous group known as the Voter News Service was disbanded.
In November 2000, flawed information from VNS twice led television networks to incorrectly declare a winner in the presidential race in Florida, the state that proved to be key to the outcome. And in the 2002 election, VNS was unable to provide its members and other clients with results from exit poll surveys.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I heard that the exit polls were primarily taken in the cities. Look at the County Red/Blue maps and you will see what this would do. The consortium probably wanted to save money and it bit them in the a$$.
The press hasn't been able to get the exit polling right in two elections; showing how lamestream the media really is.
Now- why doesn't this report say it...the Dems have
been cheating for years..since '60..when the Cemetaries in Illinois were emptied for the Kennedy vote....
The rigged the exit polls..same as in 2,000..when the
rigged networks gave Florida to Gore early..coincidence..
I don't think so. Jake
Anybody tell Juan Williams yet?
Actually, they have always been a bit off. Early polls had Dukakis and Reagan in a virtual tie. The "final" exit polling always has to be adjusted to "fit" the actual results, by a few percentage points. It so happens that usually, the election isn't that close so the error goes unnoticed. The last two elections, however, have been reeeal close...
Who are these pollers most likely to try to interview? People like themselves. And who is most likely to respond to one of these pollers? Someone who recognizes the poller as being "like me".
It's no surprise the pollers found almost everyone had voted for Kerry. It's like the famous Pauline Kael complaint: "How did Nixon get elected. I don't know anyone who voted for him!"
When I say "accurate", I mean that accurate within the unscientific sample suveyed. Exit polls are horribly unscientific-one never hears what the margin of error is the things.
Well no sheeeeeet LMAO...
next to the Dewey prediction in 1948 , I'd say that the 2004 exit polling was the biggest screwup in recent history! LOL
Having worked part-time for the 2000 Census, I think it's more who is willing to stand around and answer a long list of questions from a stranger.
By a huge margin, I had the most difficult time, and the most doors slammed in my face, in wealthy, white areas (in a part of the country where these areas are overwhelmingly Republican.)
I had the easiest time and the most cooperation in lower-income and minority areas (which sort of made me wonder about all the constant claims that the census undercounts minorities.)
Polling irregularities are the true Clinton legacy.
Before Clinton polls were used to measure public opinion.
Clinton used polls to influence public opinion.
Truly the election that keeps on giving. Nice timing too, a day before the inauguration to maximize the grief and suffering of the distraught fruitcake fringe.
They tried to cook the books and got caught.
In related news ....
The Sky is Blue.
these crooks tried to steal the election, just a different way....but the internet had them cold
"With mall pollsters you some times get paid to answer their stupid questions."
This may be among the reasons that dems are more willing to participate in the exit poll interviews.
A second reason is likely their intellectual pride. They want to tell others about the really smart thing they just did.
Thirdly, they get reinforcement from group stroking.
Thirdly, they get reinforcement from group stroking.
That's not legal in INDIANA.
:)
"In related news ....
The Sky is Blue."
Actually, that is not true. An exit poll, taken last night about 11PM, clearly showed that the sky is black.
Wow! That's more than a bit off, I'd say. ;-)
"What gets me is that in all of the years prior to 2000, the exit polls were accurate.'Wha happened?"
Because they aren't.
Here are the raw exit poll "popular vote" data for the US Presidential elections from 1988 to 2000, before the exit poll data is adjusted to reflect the final election results. Even the exit polls in Ukraine in the December 26th, 2004 re-vote did not come within their MoE when the final results were published. The "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" report published today continues to show that the exit polls have a bias towards Democrats, which accounted for the bad results taken as gospel by the demented leftists...
Year |
Exit Poll Results |
Dem Lead |
Dem Actual |
1988 |
Dukakis: 50.3% |
+0.6% |
-7.7% |
1992 |
Clinton: 46% |
+12.8% |
+5.6% |
1996 |
Clinton: 52.2% |
+14.7% |
+8.5% |
2000 |
Gore: 48.5% |
+2.3% |
+0.5% |
Source: Washington Monthly, "Political Animal" column, November 17th, 2004 by Kevin Drum - Exit Poll update.
Source: The Century Foundation, PDF file page 5/8 by Ruy Teixeria.
Hope this helps,
dvwjr
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