A Few of FR's Finest...Every Day...12-09-04...Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

JohnHuang2, Aquamarine | JohnHuang2

[Aquamarine]

A Few of FR's Finest....Every Day

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Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

by JohnHuang2

Did you see last Friday's employment report? It was terribly disappointing, say experts. They say the job market is falling apart because the economy created just a tiny 112,000 jobs in November. Experts, before the report, estimated 200,000 jobs had been created in November. Which means experts got it right but the economy got it wrong. Again. (Kinda like the elections -- when 'exit polls' got it right but election returns got it wrong.)

Latest report on employment disappointing, mourned an MSNBC headline. (It was so disappointing that distraught Kerry supporters briefly got out of their fetal position and off the suicide hotline.) "Job growth slowed unexpectedly in November to the weakest pace since the summer 'soft path,' capping a flurry of data that point" to gloom and despair. And the End Of The World. Again, the reason given for why they think things are gloomy is because experts, in forecasting 200,000 new jobs, got it right but the economy got it wrong -- 112,000 new jobs.
(In a stunning break with tradition, Democrats
aren't demanding a recount.)

"For a while, it looked as if the conclusion of the 2004 election would prove to be a rejuvenating tonic for the nation's economy," observes AP economics writer, Martin Crutsinger, an expert. "Then, as has happened so often over the past three years, news on the jobs front fell short of expectations." With tears rolling down his face, he called the latest jobs report "the latest disappointment." Again, the reason given for why he thinks things are gloomy is because experts got it right but the economy got it wrong.

Getting things wrong has become somewhat of a pattern with this economy. Have you noticed? For example, last month experts estimated the economy had created 169,000 jobs for the month of October, but the economy got it wrong. It had created 303,000 jobs instead (the dummy). In other words, the economy missed expert forecasts by 134,000 new jobs. That's 134,000 new jobs too many. (Could it be Steroids?) So, by adding 169,000 new jobs that experts predicted for October to 200,000 new jobs that experts predicted for November, you get a total of 369,000 new jobs, according to expert forecasts. In other words, during the two months in question, the economy should've created 369,000 jobs, in line with expectations. Instead, during the two months in question, the economy, in a major disappointment, created 415,000 jobs -- 303,000 in October + 112,000 in November. (This, even after George Soros slashed 90,000 jobs -- in the Democrat Party.) So, in just two months, the economy missed expert forecasts by 46,000 new jobs. In short, the economy had produced 46,000 more jobs than experts had forecast. This is called a disappointment. (The "disappointment" is so authentic, CBS won't vouch for it.) The jobless rate in November dipped to 5.4%. Another disappointment. (At this rate, the economy should reach a disappointing Full Employment in 12 months and be able to claim a mandate.)

So, recapping, had the economy in October and November created 46,000 fewer jobs, the slower growth would've been in line with expectations -- a sign the economy's in good shape. Instead, it created jobs at a blowout pace -- a sign the economy's in bad shape. (Headline had Kerry won: Report shows massive payroll surge! But Bush won, so headline is: Report shows massive layoffs; Elves hardest hit)

But it's not just October and November. Thanks to Bush's failed economic policies, the pace of job growth since January has averaged over 200,000 per month. That's 50,000 more than needed per month to keep the jobless rate from rising, according to experts. The jobless rate is based on the Household Survey, which is unreliable, according to experts. It shows the anemic job market created 483,000 jobs in November -- 371,000 more than the Payroll Survey says were created in November. So, experts say the jobless rate is reliable but the survey it's based on is bogus and that to keep the jobless rate from rising, 150,000 net new jobs are needed per month in the Payroll Survey which isn't used to calculate the jobless rate. The all-reliable Payroll Survey says payrolls are down in the last four years, so the economy is booming. No net jobs have been added, so malls are packed and people keep buying new cars and homes at a blistering pace. Jobless people do this all the time.

So, let's see how right our vaunted experts have been so far. One year ago, Expert Cynthia Latta, of Global Insight, insightfully forecasted a jobless rate of 5.8% by end of 2004. Oops. Expert David W. Berson of Fannie Mae said the rate would soar to 6.2% by May -- last May. Oops. (More like Fannie Mae not.) Expert Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank saw unemployment reaching 6.3%. Oops. Expert Gary Shilling of Shilling & Co. said they're all wrong -- jobless rate would reach 7.7% by mid-2004. Another genius. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Rocket Science Economics predicted . . . never mind. (Sheila gets thrilled at the notion of a manned-mission all the way to . . . Earth. Think of the spin-offs!)

Summing up the economy overall, real GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter; DOW rose 5% in November; employment rose to 94.6% rate in November; as profits keep rising, earned income keeps rising, spending keeps rising, investment keeps rising, exports keep rising and oil prices keep falling, core inflation remains tame; ditto interest rates. Armed with these statistics, experts say the economy looks grim. If only Kerry had won on Nov. 2. Then would our economic future be safe. (Yes, as safe as Laci was in Scott Peterson's boat.)

Poor, poor economic girlie-men.

But here's something that'll cheer you up: FOUR MORE YEARS!

Anyway, that's...

My two cents.. "JohnHuang2"

THIS WEEK'S THREADS 12-06-04....Military Monday 12-07-04....Aloha ~ Mele Kalikimaka 12-08-04....A Bracebridge Christmas Revisited

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[Aquamarine]

Hopefully when the rivers recede after the big rains the past couple of weeks, I will be able to do some serious fishing.

Sounds like prime conditions for fishing. Let us know if you catch the big one.

[Aquamarine]

God Bless Our Military ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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~~~~~~~~~~   ~~~~~~~~~~

We ask Lord, that You guide the leaders of our great country in their hour of decision. The burden that has been placed on their shoulders is overwhelming. We ask that with Your infinite wisdom You guide them gently to the right decisions.

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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OhioWfan........................son mystery-ak..........son, husband Gogrammy................grandson Inspectorette...................son Blessed American..........nephew Slip18..........................nephew anniegetyourgun...........nephew Doug from Upland......son-in-law weldgophardline.....brotherinlaw Future Snake Eater..........cousin WaterDragon..son-in-law,grandson BeforeISleep...................son The Mayor........................niece LadyX.........................grandson fawn796.....................nephew ValerieUSA................2 sons Warrior Nurse...........active duty SK1 Thurman...........active duty David Osborne.........active duty fc2tomschermuly......active duty bkwells..................activve duty LongCut..................active duty Trish.......................active duty StarCMC.........brother Atomic Conspiracy............half-brother....niece....nephew TexKat......son.....and stepson ODC-GIRL............active duty cookcounty................son Donaeus..............nephew thumperusn...........active duty katykelly..................son Notwithstanding.....active duty Lakeside................two sons Q6-God and twin brother...active duty cjk................active duty philman_36...........2 nephews Veloxherc.................active duty WVNan................friend's son mrstank...............husband Conspiracy Guy........two nephews eaglesiniowa...............son Don Simmons............active duty Leofl...............son bjcintennessee....son and niece campfollower...............fiance LakeLady.................... nephew

Pippin.......niece, loved one, .............nephew and fiancee Maigrey................cousin ladtx....................2 sons Mama_Bear...........2 nephews gator girl............husband severa................husband, brother Hostel....................cousin MozartLover......son, nephew LBGA........................son SpookBrat........nephew and cousin Himyar.....................son boxerblues............2 sons the piper...................son sheeza...............husband kemathen7...........husband Tiffee4Bob.......boyfriend Diver Dave.......niece, nephew deadhead................cousin JimRobinson.....2 nephews Armymarinemom.....3 sons Consort..2 daughters,son-in-law Darheel..................niece dixie sass.............nephew BeAllYouCanBe.........son AgThorn...............2 sons homeschoolmama.......nephew kneezles.................son kimmie7..............brother Spruce..............daughter visualops.................cousin Dubya...................nephew SunflowerGal..........grandson AF_Blue.............active duty RoseBear...........cousin's husband Redhead....step granddaughter and her fiance RepubMommy.................brother Alouette..................son american_ranger..............son auboy..................cousin spotbus1.................husband jamaly............brother in law wingnutx........active duty chena....................... son LUV W......................son painter....................... nephew Ladysmith.........nephew and friend's son

[Diver Dave]

Great essay and layout presentation.

Sure glad we have an expert to expertly present what the experts have to say.

[Diver Dave]

I'm going to have to leave for a while and do some Christmas shopping. Will be back early evening.

Whadja get me? Whadja get me? Whadja get me?

[dutchess]

Wow John...what a biting essay...Love you man!!!!

Aqua. Great job. I glanced at the essay last night and had NOT A CLUE how I would illustrate it. You did great sistah!!!! Hope you got a lot of Christmas shopping done...I might try this weekend (ugh...in the BEST of circumstances I HATE SHOPPING! (except for grocery stores....I LOVE grocery stores...especially out of town or "speciality ones" Poor hubby when we travel abroad...most people like museums, churches etc...me...give me a small village grocery....may not buy anything but sure like to look...wierd huh?) ((((aqua)))))

[GailA]

Thank you, I'm still an emotional wreck and the physical stuff acting up sure doesn't help it.

[Aquamarine]

What would we do without the experts. ;)

[Aquamarine]

Whadja get me? Whadja get me? Whadja get me?

Didn't know what to get you so I'm giving you some money to get whatever you want. :)

[Aquamarine]

(except for grocery stores....I LOVE grocery stores...especially out of town or "speciality ones"

I have an aunt that's like that. Whenever she goes to a new town she loves to go to the grocery store and look around (she's also a great cook).

[Aquamarine]

Sorry to hear that (((Gail))). Know this is a rough time for you, just have to believe that things will get better one day.

[dutchess]

I'm still an emotional wreck and the physical stuff acting up sure doesn't help it.

Oh Gail...I've been so "self-absorbed". I can't imagine what you are going through. Please know my prayers and love are with you. Give that Rocky an extra special hug. Think DK would like that. (((((gail))))))

[Aquamarine]

Hope you and your dad are having a good night. Know how hard it can be to lose a loved one this time of year (((Dutchess)))

[LadyX]

"Good evening, dear JohnHuang2 -- Maggie Malone here.
LadyX has been detained, and asked me to do a survey for her on your essay this week.

Glad to oblige, I csught a few reactions of some so-thrilled-to-be-so-wrong sore losers umm -- overjoyed liberals -- on the subject of the "free failing economy."

As for "Which means experts got it right but the economy got it wrong. Again." -- here is one:

"But Terry assured us all we had to do was hate Bush..."

"Again, the reason given for why he thinks things are gloomy
is because experts got it right
but the economy got it wrong."

"But that sounded so utterly profound -- "

Last but not lest, was this gal --

"Summing up the economy overall, real GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter; DOW rose 5% in November; employment rose to 94.6% rate in November; as profits keep rising, earned income keeps rising, spending keeps rising, investment keeps rising, exports keep rising and oil prices keep falling, core inflation remains tame; ditto interest rates. Armed with these statistics, experts say the economy looks grim. If only Kerry had won on Nov. 2. Then would our economic future be safe."

"I think I need some Dean Scream Therapy..("

(Love whatcha do, JH2!!)

~ Maggie Malone

[Aquamarine]

So happy you could fill in for LadyX (who must be on assignment again).

Your survey is quite funny Maggie.

[Darksheare]

Good evening.

[LadyX]

"Your survey is quite funny"

Consider the subjects, Aqua, and how strange is their inability to process anything normally!

One wants to yell at them,
"For pete's sake, get some good ideas and develop them, instead of whining and whimpering and distorting and spewing hatred..."

What a sad and miserable lot they are....

[LadyX]

How art thou, Darks of The North??

[Darksheare]

The usual for me.
Wandering, clanking chains, moaning ethereally.
Unfortunately, I don't scare too many people with that.
*sigh*
/ joke


It's been an interesting day.
Had a troll from the United Arab Emirates show up.
He was shown the door.

[LadyX]

There was one other fella among those I intervewed,
but I couldna get a word outta him...

What a pathetic lot, those libs...

(Guess Pippin has several like him in her office..:))

[Darksheare]

I got info out of him.. not the info I wanted, but I got info out of him.

*Insane Kraut Scientist Voice*
I Haf Vays Uf Beeyink Persvasive.