A Few of FR's Finest...Every Day...12-09-04...Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

JohnHuang2, Aquamarine | JohnHuang2

[Aquamarine]

A Few of FR's Finest....Every Day

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Bush economy keeps booming; experts hardest hit

by JohnHuang2

Did you see last Friday's employment report? It was terribly disappointing, say experts. They say the job market is falling apart because the economy created just a tiny 112,000 jobs in November. Experts, before the report, estimated 200,000 jobs had been created in November. Which means experts got it right but the economy got it wrong. Again. (Kinda like the elections -- when 'exit polls' got it right but election returns got it wrong.)

Latest report on employment disappointing, mourned an MSNBC headline. (It was so disappointing that distraught Kerry supporters briefly got out of their fetal position and off the suicide hotline.) "Job growth slowed unexpectedly in November to the weakest pace since the summer 'soft path,' capping a flurry of data that point" to gloom and despair. And the End Of The World. Again, the reason given for why they think things are gloomy is because experts, in forecasting 200,000 new jobs, got it right but the economy got it wrong -- 112,000 new jobs.
(In a stunning break with tradition, Democrats
aren't demanding a recount.)

"For a while, it looked as if the conclusion of the 2004 election would prove to be a rejuvenating tonic for the nation's economy," observes AP economics writer, Martin Crutsinger, an expert. "Then, as has happened so often over the past three years, news on the jobs front fell short of expectations." With tears rolling down his face, he called the latest jobs report "the latest disappointment." Again, the reason given for why he thinks things are gloomy is because experts got it right but the economy got it wrong.

Getting things wrong has become somewhat of a pattern with this economy. Have you noticed? For example, last month experts estimated the economy had created 169,000 jobs for the month of October, but the economy got it wrong. It had created 303,000 jobs instead (the dummy). In other words, the economy missed expert forecasts by 134,000 new jobs. That's 134,000 new jobs too many. (Could it be Steroids?) So, by adding 169,000 new jobs that experts predicted for October to 200,000 new jobs that experts predicted for November, you get a total of 369,000 new jobs, according to expert forecasts. In other words, during the two months in question, the economy should've created 369,000 jobs, in line with expectations. Instead, during the two months in question, the economy, in a major disappointment, created 415,000 jobs -- 303,000 in October + 112,000 in November. (This, even after George Soros slashed 90,000 jobs -- in the Democrat Party.) So, in just two months, the economy missed expert forecasts by 46,000 new jobs. In short, the economy had produced 46,000 more jobs than experts had forecast. This is called a disappointment. (The "disappointment" is so authentic, CBS won't vouch for it.) The jobless rate in November dipped to 5.4%. Another disappointment. (At this rate, the economy should reach a disappointing Full Employment in 12 months and be able to claim a mandate.)

So, recapping, had the economy in October and November created 46,000 fewer jobs, the slower growth would've been in line with expectations -- a sign the economy's in good shape. Instead, it created jobs at a blowout pace -- a sign the economy's in bad shape. (Headline had Kerry won: Report shows massive payroll surge! But Bush won, so headline is: Report shows massive layoffs; Elves hardest hit)

But it's not just October and November. Thanks to Bush's failed economic policies, the pace of job growth since January has averaged over 200,000 per month. That's 50,000 more than needed per month to keep the jobless rate from rising, according to experts. The jobless rate is based on the Household Survey, which is unreliable, according to experts. It shows the anemic job market created 483,000 jobs in November -- 371,000 more than the Payroll Survey says were created in November. So, experts say the jobless rate is reliable but the survey it's based on is bogus and that to keep the jobless rate from rising, 150,000 net new jobs are needed per month in the Payroll Survey which isn't used to calculate the jobless rate. The all-reliable Payroll Survey says payrolls are down in the last four years, so the economy is booming. No net jobs have been added, so malls are packed and people keep buying new cars and homes at a blistering pace. Jobless people do this all the time.

So, let's see how right our vaunted experts have been so far. One year ago, Expert Cynthia Latta, of Global Insight, insightfully forecasted a jobless rate of 5.8% by end of 2004. Oops. Expert David W. Berson of Fannie Mae said the rate would soar to 6.2% by May -- last May. Oops. (More like Fannie Mae not.) Expert Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank saw unemployment reaching 6.3%. Oops. Expert Gary Shilling of Shilling & Co. said they're all wrong -- jobless rate would reach 7.7% by mid-2004. Another genius. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Rocket Science Economics predicted . . . never mind. (Sheila gets thrilled at the notion of a manned-mission all the way to . . . Earth. Think of the spin-offs!)

Summing up the economy overall, real GDP rose 3.9% in the third quarter; DOW rose 5% in November; employment rose to 94.6% rate in November; as profits keep rising, earned income keeps rising, spending keeps rising, investment keeps rising, exports keep rising and oil prices keep falling, core inflation remains tame; ditto interest rates. Armed with these statistics, experts say the economy looks grim. If only Kerry had won on Nov. 2. Then would our economic future be safe. (Yes, as safe as Laci was in Scott Peterson's boat.)

Poor, poor economic girlie-men.

But here's something that'll cheer you up: FOUR MORE YEARS!

Anyway, that's...

My two cents.. "JohnHuang2"

THIS WEEK'S THREADS 12-06-04....Military Monday 12-07-04....Aloha ~ Mele Kalikimaka 12-08-04....A Bracebridge Christmas Revisited

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[Aquamarine]

I think it was Diver Dave who found that picture of the Kerry sign in the garbage about a month before the election. Maybe someone came to their senses. lol

[Aquamarine]

Good Morning Gail. You've been in my thoughts and prayers.

[Aquamarine]

We can conquer our fears. To admit that we are afraid is to admit that we are human. But to admit being afraid and then trusting the Lord and going forward will take the fear out of fear. —Dennis De Haan

This is so true. Thank you.

[Aquamarine]

Hope you continue to have a great day.

It's windy and rainy in Georgia (imagine that) :)

[dansangel]

I have a picture of a bulldog relieving himself on a sKerry lawn sign that Shaggy Eel sent to me.

I have refrained from using it here on the Finest because it would breach our decorum.

:-)

[dansangel]

It's windy and rainy in Georgia (imagine that) :)

Well, it *is* December! :-)

I have to keep reminding myself of that.

Hope you have a great day as well (((((Aqua)))))))

[Aquamarine]

I have refrained from using it here on the Finest because it would breach our decorum.

Good thing we have a Net Nanny to keep us on the straight and narrow. lol

[dansangel]

Good thing we have a Net Nanny to keep us on the straight and narrow. lol

True. I have been know to become out of control on occasion. ;-)

[Aquamarine]

You find the cutest smiley face gifs!
Heard it may snow here Saturday. Sure hope it doesn't, I have a birthday party to attend...on the other side of the mountains.

[Aquamarine]

Good Morning Crabbie and thanks for the bump.

[Aquamarine]

Thanks Mayor. Hope everything is going well for you and your family.

[Aquamarine]

True. I have been know to become out of control on occasion. ;-)

Me too. ;)

[DollyCali]

wonderful..Aqua, the money background sets it up well! thanks both of you.

I recall before the election when Rush would take a phone call from someone from Ohio (my state) and asked about the food lines and how the caller was doing living on the streets.. of course a slam on the ads/mentality of the RATS of how bad we were doing economically.

I have to tell you about a small car that passed me yesterday on the interstate . The well dressed /coiffed woman gave me the one finger salute. I was not going to fast, slow, or swerving. Hmmm.. as she passed with her hand out the window overhead I saw all her bumper stickers. Kerry ad infintium... and one said. "Kerry to get us out of the AWFUL Economic mess". Of course she was NOT reacting to my driving, she was reacting to MY BUSH/CHENEY 04 stickers that were all over tha back of my van & on a few side windows.

[DollyCali]

Thunderbirds are going to be at the Cleveland Air Show this Labor Day. We normally have the Blue Angels. This year there was a conflict & we had NO high performance military team. Attendace/income was WAY down.

[Grampa Dave]

Great essay by John Huang2.

[Aquamarine]

the money background sets it up well!

I hadn't even thought of that. Good eye Dolly!

Hmmm.. as she passed with her hand out the window overhead I saw all her bumper stickers. Kerry ad infintium... and one said. "Kerry to get us out of the AWFUL Economic mess".

The liberals think that the Left will give them their hearts desire (at the taxpayers expense of course).

[Aquamarine]

Hi Grampa Dave. Do you have any good fishing stories to tell? I miss them.

[tuliptree76]

Thank you. :-)

[Grampa Dave]

Not any this year. I have testing new rods/lines and rotating my inventory.

Hopefully when the rivers recede after the big rains the past couple of weeks, I will be able to do some serious fishing.

[Aquamarine]

You're welcome Tuliptree76.

I'm going to have to leave for a while and do some Christmas shopping. Will be back early evening.