2006 Senate races: looking ahead

me

[dufekin]

Vanity post; no thread.

NOTE: We also need to look at governor's races.

[Keith]

It's better than senator Dodd, or whatever Dem might replace Lieberman. Shays will vote 80% with the leadership...that's probly 60% higher than any Dem.

Check my tagline...

[dufekin]

Let me explain.

Byrd: His age and Bush's popularity have dropped him from the top ("unopposable") to the second ("safe") tier. But he rolls tons of political pork into the Great Distinguished Senator Robert C. Byrd Memorial State. As President Pro Tempore, he sits just four heartbeats from the Presidency. Problem for the Republicans: a complete dearth of credible conservative candidates. The GOP should begin grooming candidates (plural) now to replace Byrd when he retires (or dies). Without Byrd on the ballot, this seat blows wide open. Other groomed Republican candidates can challenge Jay Rockefeller and take other state offices.

Clinton: This New York senator is considered vulnerable primarily because she ran behind Al Gore in 2000. Bush also performed better here in 2004 than in 2000. That even excludes the "star" candidacy of Guiliani, who remains enormously popular in New York City. Yeah, Guiliani did hurt himself by campaigning for Bush, but he only has to do a little better than Lazio. That's really quite easy, even if he has just half of his support remaining in the City of New York. And remember: Gore and Kerry--no presidential candidates--will be on the ballot to provide coattails.

Conrad: Should be vulnerable. But if the Republicans had a hand to play, why didn't they fare any better against Byron Dorgan? Where is the "good candidate" that North Dakota so desperately needs? Completely absent--unless the Governor John Hoeven, or another popular Republican, will contest this seat. It shouldn't be difficult--but why hasn't it happened yet? When--and more importantly, if--such a candidate should appear, we can reassess the vulnerability.

Lieberman: Note the assumptions that I've made. He (1) wins his primary easily and (2) doesn't face a significant minor-party insurgency. If both assumptions apply--granted, a big "if"--then how could a conservative beat him? Even if a Greenie splits the liberal vote, it would be interesting, but Lieberman is centrist and incumbent enough to block a conservative Republican. If he doesn't win his primary--or doesn't run, having been appointed, perhaps, Ambassador to Israel--then it's an open seat. Democrats would have a natural edge, but if Republicans could find a credible centrist candidate, they could capture this seat.

[Keith]

The more I think about it, the less likely Rudy will run against Hitlery. If he loses, it's over. If he wins, is he gonna run for president right away?

No, if we are going to beat Senator Pantsuit, we will have to run someone else...like a fireman from the WTC..how bout that?

[nickcarraway]

Maybe so. But isn't there anyone besides that traitor and lowlife?

[deport]

I didn't say you said it.... I said he wasn't vunerable, imo. Thus I doubt you'll see the effort to unseat him.

[dufekin]

You're right. Kennedy is not vulnerable. Sure, he's a murderer, a drunk, and possibly a rapist. That's popular in Massachusetts. He hates America almost as much as traitor John F. Kerry. Good for his electoral chances.

Mitt Romney? He'll have a hard time holding his Gubernatorial post, given his opposition to the idea of Teddy and John (both male) marrying one another. That's popular in Massachusetts. He wants to lower taxes? Perish the thought! He's a Mormon. Cue the Utah Republican ad.

Let's put it this way: Massachusetts has ten Congress-critters--all liberal Democrats. Kennedy's safe, and even if he leaves the Senate, his seat is safe for the ultra-liberal anti-American whining tax-raising Demo-creeps.

[dufekin]

Harris v. Nelson in Florida? Good fireworks there. Who wins? I'd like to see the top of the ticket (Governor).

Cantwell (D-WA) hates business? Celebrates infanticide? Filibusters Republican ideas? Despises America? Supports al-Qaida? So what! She's from Washington. Seattle is the City of Sedition, like Sodom. (San Francisco is Gomorrah.) This is the state that lionizes terrorist supporter Rachel Corrie, torches the American flag, and elects traitor Jim Baghdad McDermott. They're radically anti-American.

Yeah, eastern Washington is full of upstanding, moral Americans. Let them reproduce--they won't kill their young--until they constitute a majority. If Nethercutt can't do better than Bush in Washington, it's just not going to happen. And that's why Cantwell is "safe." She stands for everything that we abhor--and that makes her popular in Washington.

[Keith]

Hey, you may not agree with him, but those are inaccurate accusations. It's because of him that people know what was in the House material on Broadderick. He is on the record saying that he thinks Clinton was guilty of rape. Show me a list of conservatives who went that far? So, cut him some slack.

He has never played these Lincoln Chaffee/Jeffords games with the party, and he took a smack in the mouth this time because they tried to tie him to Tom Delay in CT. Can you believe that?

Anyway...he would be a good senator from CONNECTICUT. OK?

[dufekin]

Any Republican who can win in Connecticut is good by me. But so long as we have a Democratic Senator from Connecticut, I don't think we can do any better than Senator Lieberman. He's probably to the right of his electorate. If he runs again, it's all him.

[Katya]

It's ridiculous that North Dakota still has two democratic senators. I'd go after Kent Conrad, he only lost by 60,000 votes, Dorgans margins were much bigger. That or pressure Conrad to flip.

[nickcarraway]

Then why did Shays vote against impeachment?

[dufekin]

I agree. Who's going to challenge Kent Conrad? Ummmm. Uhh.... Therein lies the problem. There's got to be a credible well-liked conservative in North Dakota who wouldn't mind holding a Senate seat. But...where? Who? No such person has come forward. I don't understand why, but Conrad's seat is safe unless and until some such person happens to exist.

[Phsstpok]

	DEMOCRATS	REPUBLICANS
Likely to retire for health reasons (or die)	Kennedy (MA)
	Byrd (WV)
Likely to seek New Jersey Governorship	Corzine (NJ)
Likely to seek Presidency in 2008 (drop out in '06)		Frist (TN)
Likely to try to cash in via business deals instead		Lott (MS)

[ken5050]

Re Cantwell..any possibility that Jennifer Dunn might be coaxed out of retirement?

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I suppose its current or former governors would do, but they don't seem interested in a move to Washington.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

The recent superb ground game in Florida by the Republicans should give us optimism for knocking off Bill Nelson, at least we know where to go for the votes.

[73nole]

Bill Nelson of Florida campaigned as a Moderate and governed like Kennedy. He fooled alot of people. He is vunerable and can be beaten by either of two candidates:

Jeb Bush
Joe Scarborough

[An American!]

Please repeal or reduce the paperwork associated with Sarbanes Oxley...it is a royal pain.

[An American!]

New faces...familiar names.
How about some of the talk show names like Sean Hannity?

[SuziQ]

My sister in law is learning how to do the SOX compliance stuff with an eye to being an independent contractor working with companies having to do it, and not wanting to devote an employee to the work. She can't stand having to do it as part of her regular job at a large southern bank, but is delighted with the prospect of going out on her own! ;o).

It is truly one of the most wasteful pieces of legislation to come down the pike in many moons! Another reason NOT to make laws in the heat of the moment!